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April 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest


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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

At 9.8c April 2018 shares the same CET as April's 1914, 1874, 1844 and 1775.

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Monthly Rankings

One player doctor32 got it right this month.  Optimus Prime 2nd 0.2c out, with Weather26 and Man With Beard each 0.3c out.

image.thumb.png.eab7ba4f22341208a3eb284e46630ff1.png

Seasonal

Man With Beard leads with a maximum score of 500, chrisbell-nottheweatherman in 2nd, and Godber 1 in 3rd. 

image.thumb.png.9fdf2021233d53c71d9f39408ffd3ffb.png

Overall

Man With Beard again leads with stewfox in 2nd and Don in 3rd.

image.png

Excel File -> March 2018 CET.xlsx

Edited by J10
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

The EWP (from NCIC of the UKMO) has been reported as 86.5 mm. The Hadley version is not on line yet (the main reason why that version is not used in the contest) and is probably going to be higher as it usually is. So for the official contest results, these would be the top ten with ties:

Scores are based on 47 entries.

Rank _ Score _ Forecast _ Error __ Forecaster

 1. ____ 10.0 ___ 86.0 __ -0.5 ___ KIRKCALDY WEATHER

T2. _____9.8 ___ 85.0 __ -1.5 ___ PROLONGEDSNOWLOVER

T2. _____9.8 ___ 88.0 __ +1.5 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE, SIMSHADY

T5  _____9.2 ___ 84.0 __ -2.5 ___ J10

T5  _____9.2 ___ 89.0 __ +2.5 ___ WEATHER-HISTORY

 7. _____ 8.8 ___ 90.0 __ +3.5 ___ DON

 8. _____ 8.6 ___ 82.0 __ -4.5 ___ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE

 9. _____ 8.4 ___ 92.0 __ +5.5 ___ SEAS(DE 60

T10 ____ 8.2 ___ 80.0 __ -6.5 __  POLAR GAEL, STEWFOX

__________________________

The complete list of scoring and an annual contest update will be available in the competition thread by Friday morning, I hope. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

The complete April and the annual EWP contest standings are now posted in the competition thread

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=9&tab=comments#comment-3856406

These are the top fifteen all ahead of our consensus (29.9 total points) which has now moved ahead of recent normals (27.3, 25.9) so that shows some developing group skill at this new pursuit. Congrats to Jonboy who maintains a lead in the annual contest after a decent score in April. 

 

Rank __ Forecaster _________________ Total _____ previous rank

_01 ___ JONBOY ___________________40.5 ____ _ 01

_02 ___ STEWFOX _________________ 37.5 ____ _ 04

_03 ___ SINGULARITY ______________ 36.3 ____ _ 02

_04 ___ STEVE B ___________________35.4 ____ _ 06

_05 ___ SIMSHADY _________________ 34.0 ____ _ 13

_06 ___ POLAR GAEL _______________ 33.4 ____ _ 12

_07 ___  BORN FROM THE VOID ______ 32.9 ____ _ 11

_08 ___ DKEANE3 __________________ 32.7 ____ _ 05

T-09___ DR (S) NO __________________32.4 ____ _ 09 

T-09___ DON _______________________32.4 ____ _T-16

T-11___ NORRANCE _________________32.3 ____ _ 07

T-11___ SEASIDE 60 _________________32.3 ____ _ 15

_13 ___  J10 ________________________30.2 ____ _ 20

_14 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE __________ 30.1 ____ _ 08

_15 ___ VIZZY2004 __________________ 30.0 ____ _ 03 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

 

Update on CET scoring for consensus and two recent normals

 

___ Past months ____

____________DEC _________________________ JAN ________________________ FEB

"Forecaster" _ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range)

1987-2016*__ +0.2 __ 89.4 - 93.4 __ 6 to 9 (88-17)>--0.6 __66.7 - 74.1 _ 15 to 19 ______ +1.9 _ 31.2 - 35.1 _ 51 to 54

1981-2010 __ --0.2 __ 89.4 - 93.4 __ 6 to 9 ______ --0.9 __ 50.0 - 55.6 _ 25 to 28 ______ +1.5 _ 48.1 - 49.4 _ 40 to 41

Consensus __--0.6 __ 71.0 - 74.9 __20 to 23 _____--0.9 __ 50.0 -55.6 _ 25 to 28 _______+1.1 _ 57.1 - 58.4 _ 33 to 34

* becomes 1988-2017 from JAN onward.

____________ MAR _____________________ 

"Forecaster" _ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range)

1988-2017 __ +1.9 __ 20.8 - 22.1 __ 60 to 61 

1981-2010 __ +1.7 __ 26.1 - 26.1 __ 57 to 57 

Consensus __--0.3 __ 78.9 - 85.5 __12 to 17

 

________ Current Month __ Apr 2018 ________________ Contest year averages to date (5 mo)___

"Forecaster" _Apr Error_ Apr Points (range)_rank (range) // mean abs error_mean points_mean rank

1988-2017 ___ --1.1 _____ 72.2 - 72.2 ____ 18 to 18 ________ 1.14 _____ 58.1 - 61.3 __ 30 to 32

1981-2010 ___ --1.3 _____ 57.4 - 65.6 ____ 22 to 27 ________ 1.12 _____ 54.2 - 58.0 __ 30 to 32

Consensus ___--1.4 _____ 50.8 - 55.8 ____ 28 to 31 ________ 0.84 _____ 61.6 - 66.1 __ 24 to 27

_____________________________________________________________________

Consensus continues to lead the two normals but this past month all three of the "robotic" forecasters were middle of the pack,

as about half the field chose a fairly warm value and the other half were quite cool (and further out than the consensus). Although 

the two normals edged out consensus in terms of error and ranking points, the difference was not enough to change the relative

positions of these three more than a slight amount. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
22 hours ago, J10 said:

Monthly Rankings

One player doctor32 got it right this month.  Optimus Prime 2nd 0.2c out, with Weather26 and Man With Beard each 0.3c out.

image.thumb.png.eab7ba4f22341208a3eb284e46630ff1.png

Seasonal

Man With Beard leads with a maximum score of 500, chrisbell-nottheweatherman in 2nd, and Godber 1 in 3rd. 

image.thumb.png.9fdf2021233d53c71d9f39408ffd3ffb.png

Overall

Man With Beard again leads with stewfox in 2nd and Don in 3rd.

image.png

Excel File -> March 2018 CET.xlsx

You need to correct your link as the filename is getting corrupted.

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40 minutes ago, The PIT said:

You need to correct your link as the filename is getting corrupted.

That is nothing to do with me but is an issue with the current Forum Software. 

There is a "long winded" workaround.

The problem with the files is due to how Net Weather now deals with certain files, in the past if you clicked on a link it would work.

However, now it saves it as a strange file. A workaround would be to download the file.

image.thumb.png.68de4becc581c3672d8b386f46c8bfa8.png

This would then save the file into your desired folder as a strangely named file.

image.thumb.png.434d56944576d059fe14441a872ad84b.png

If you then rename the file, so it ends with .xlsx at the end it should then be converted into a normal Excel file as work as normal.

 

image.thumb.png.38b1ae3ee90ba99bdf05a93d6a50d3a0.png

If you click on yes, it then changes the file name to.xlsx and recognises it as an Excel file.

image.thumb.png.2a7be24780782b55ae05beaade2d596e.png

However, by no means is this the best way of doing this and it would be far easier if it worked as normal.

However, this still doesn't work for the PDF format.

 

Edited by J10
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