Will we ever reach 40c in the UK

[summer blizzard]

Going by ECM and GEM tonight 40c may well be under a real threat next week

 

 

Some epic charts tonight with-out doubt its only a 1 day wonder for now but temperatures would shoot up with those sort of uppers

Not a chance with such low pressure, there would be storms long before.

[nitro_deluxe]

Think that actually LP will be the driver, hot if not very hot air being gradually drawn up on its eastern flank...

This Summer may well break a few more records yet. Fourth consecutive week of warmth is hardly common occurrence, any 'breakdown' soon pushed back, as seen several times already.

[cheese]

If those charts came off, then local records could be threatened I feel. Doubt we'd reach 40C though as we'd need a build up of the heat rather than a fleeting glance.

[summer blizzard]

Think that actually LP will be the driver, hot if not very hot air being gradually drawn up on its eastern flank...This Summer may well break a few more records yet. Fourth consecutive week of warmth is hardly common occurrence, any 'breakdown' soon pushed back, as seen several times already.

For evidence of why we won't get 40C from that one needs only compare last Monday to the 3rd August 1990. Both had 18C uppers, one had a perfect flow while the other was a near direct southerly and one crucially had higher pressure to gleam out everything it could.The pressure is too low and the flow too moist.

[Methuselah]

If those charts came off, then local records could be threatened I feel. Doubt we'd reach 40C though as we'd need a build up of the heat rather than a fleeting glance.

I agree. If the timing is right, and the sun shines until mid afternoon, it's possible...Statistically speaking though, a lot of factors need to coincide? Perhaps nighttime records will be more under threat?

[hillbilly]

It will not reach 40deg here since Denmark and Holland,sweden,finland and Norway all have similar max to us around 38deg.Even Germany and Poland have only just scraped into 40 deg so to say we are surrounded by water and the latitude we are it is surprising we have actually got to 38!

[Sainsbo]

I agree that even if the charts that we have seen today verified, we would probably not see 40C being breached due to cloud cover from thunderstorms that would be spawned in the heat, and the fact that it is only a one day occurance and doesn't have much time to set in. However, it does serve as a reminder that all of the ingredients necessary for those sort of temperatures to be breached are possible, all they have to do is happen at the same time ad it could happen.

 

I don't think it will happen any time soon, but I think it definitely could happen sometime in the near-ish future.

[March Blizzard]

It will not reach 40deg here since Denmark and Holland,sweden,finland and Norway all have similar max to us around 38deg.Even Germany and Poland have only just scraped into 40 deg so to say we are surrounded by water and the latitude we are it is surprising we have actually got to 38!

I agree, 38C is probably a tad high given our location when you consider much of continental Europe has only scraped 40C.

[Relativistic]

What was the previous UK record before August 2003? I'm guessing maybe 37C ish? Which still seems pretty high for our location.

Edited July 26, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[hillbilly]

What was the previous UK record before August 2003? I'm guessing maybe 37C ish? Which still seems pretty high for our location.

1990  37.1 deg Cheltenham  3rd august

1911 36.7 raunds 9th aug

1932 36.1 several sites ,London  19th aug

1976 35.9 Cheltenham 3rd july

1957 35.6 Camden  29th june

1900   35.1 Cambridge 20th july

1948 35.0  milford 28th july

and the most amazing one I left out.....

1906 35.6  bawtry 1st September..................yes in September and bawtry is in YORKSHIRE and not southern england

[Relativistic]

Thanks, that September date is very impressive, was quite shocked when I read it!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1990  37.1 deg Cheltenham  3rd august

1911 36.7 raunds 9th aug

1932 36.1 several sites ,London  19th aug

1976 35.9 Cheltenham 3rd july

1957 35.6 Camden  29th june

1900   35.1 Cambridge 20th july

1948 35.0  milford 28th july

and the most amazing one I left out.....

1906 35.6  bawtry 1st September..................yes in September and bawtry is in YORKSHIRE and not southern england

 

Not had many, if any hot birthdays since '00, not around in 1906!!!!!

[cheese]

The Bawtry record is accepted by the Met Office, but they have their reservations about how well screened the sensor actually was.

[Scorcher]

The Bawtry record is accepted by the Met Office, but they have their reservations about how well screened the sensor actually was.

 

A few places managed 35C on the 1st though so it can't have been far off. It just shows that the potential for very hot conditions is there right until the end of August and into the first week of September- the continent often remains hot well into September and SSTs are higher than they are earlier in the summer.

[Derp Patrol]

A few places managed 35C on the 1st though so it can't have been far off. It just shows that the potential for very hot conditions is there right until the end of August and into the first week of September- the continent often remains hot well into September and SSTs are higher than they are earlier in the summer.

 

 

Yes also given the fact that we have reached 30C in early October before, and the mid-high 20s well into October just goes to show that you can still get some decent heat late on in the year.

[paul tall]

40c in the UK, absoloutly not, never in our lifetimes. even 30c is getting very difficult to acheieve,  although 30c is likely again at some time in the future in the south of UK , We hit 30c here a few select times during the warm years a decade ago, but doubt in will happen again. Even getting  over 21c is a push, which is utterly ridiclous for mid summer, the climate is definatly cooling 

 

Fail.

1990  37.1 deg Cheltenham  3rd august

1911 36.7 raunds 9th aug

1932 36.1 several sites ,London  19th aug

1976 35.9 Cheltenham 3rd july

1957 35.6 Camden  29th june

1900   35.1 Cambridge 20th july

1948 35.0  milford 28th july

and the most amazing one I left out.....

1906 35.6  bawtry 1st September..................yes in September and bawtry is in YORKSHIRE and not southern england

 

The Bawtry reading is impossible IMO. It's not possible to get that hot that far north in mid summer never mind September. I call false reading.

[Derp Patrol]

Fail.

 

The Bawtry reading is impossible IMO. It's not possible to get that hot that far north in mid summer never mind September. I call false reading.

 

 

Places in northern USA and Russia at 50 degrees north have reached 45C before.. I think it is possible, just more unlikely given our unfortunate position at the end of a massive ocean

[Roger J Smith]

Would have to speculate that this is possible, the highest values of 500-mb thickness and 850-mb temp that I've seen on charts associated with previous 36-38 C events don't seem to exhaust the spectrum of possibilities at the latitude of the southern UK. Growing urban sprawl is another factor that could add a degree over time. It may be 2025-2040 before this happens but I think it is physically sustainable.

 

You would need to see a thickness of 576-580 dm and an 850 mb temp of 22-25 C. These are by no means unusual at 50-52 N on larger continents than Europe.

[TonyH]

Can't see it during our lifetimes, after monitoring the hottest daily readings for Europe this Summer, 42c is the highest temperature even for Turkey, Spain and Greece.

Fail.

 

The Bawtry reading is impossible IMO. It's not possible to get that hot that far north in mid summer never mind September. I call false reading.

Considering the widespread 34 and 35c readings that day it is very possible and it is accepted.

[Milhouse]

Consider what happened yesterday with Heathrow reaching 34.2c. The day before it was only in the mid 20s so thats an increase of 8-10c. I believe had the warm uppers continued to pump north for another couple of days we could have been breaking records.

 

Stations in Lincolnshire saw a 12c increase from the 31st July to the 1st August. Temperatures would only have gone higher had the warm air remained.

[laserguy]

If 40c is ever reached in my neck of the woods, you'll know about it when I stop posting on here as I'll be profoundly dead.

[hillbilly]

If you look at the list of temps for hottest days of each year it is quite interesting .

Scotland has registered 30 deg.Nottingham has twice hit over 33,i guess the bawtry temp could stand as possible.Ibelieve that wakefield just up the road holds the march record at 25 deg and on more than one occasion......a fohn erect off the pennines perhaps??

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Scotland has registered

[Weather-history]

Fail. The Bawtry reading is impossible IMO. It's not possible to get that hot that far north in mid summer never mind September. I call false reading.

Gordon Castle got to 32.2C on 1st September 1906Lairg got to 31.7C on 2nd September 1906Ushaw in Durham got to 33.9C on 1st September 1906

[Mark Parsons]

I hope it doesn't reach 40c anytime soon as this would only fuel the speculation that global warming is happening.......................

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I do think it is possible. To officially record 40c will be challenging, but a few isolated 'unofficial' spots may well do, and I believe they actually might have done on the 10th August 2003. The real chance was there just after the record, with intense, dangerous heat over France on the 11th-12th. Had we have got another light Southerly that would have wafted the intense heat over for one more time, then I believe we would've done it, without a doubt.

The ingredients just all need to come together all at once, has to be exactly timed right too (end of july, beginning of August)