September 2018 Weather

[Earthshine]

The Met Office outlook for the first half of September is not half bad, quote:

"Through September, confidence in the forecast decreases. However, we will probably see longer dry and settled spells at times, these perhaps becoming more dominant than previously in the north and northwest. Temperatures by day are likely to be generally warmer than average, but there will an increasing chance of chillier nights"

What's everyone's thoughts on what the final month of Summer may bring weather-wise?

[Weather-history]

1 minute ago, gbrunner12 said:

 

What's everyone's thoughts on what the final month of Summer may bring weather-wise?

We are just over halfway through the final month of summer now, looks still mix. 

 

[Earthshine]

Just now, Weather-history said:

We are just over halfway through the final month of summer now, looks still mix. 

 

We're only halfway through August though?  September is the last month of Summer is it not?

[Weather-history]

Just now, gbrunner12 said:

We're only halfway through August though?  September is the last month of Summer is it not?

Meteorological summer is June, July, August

Astronomical summer is summer solstice to autumn equinox, so even that definition doesn't consider the whole of September as a summer month. 

[Badgers01]

1 minute ago, gbrunner12 said:

We're only halfway through August though?  September is the last month of Summer is it not?

Gosh that’s a loaded statement- I would say most definitely not , we can still have summer like weather in September- but it’s not a summer month definitely Autumn!! 

[Earthshine]

37 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Gosh that’s a loaded statement- I would say most definitely not , we can still have summer like weather in September- but it’s not a summer month definitely Autumn!! 

Summer ends on the 23rd of September so plenty of Summer left.  I'd say September is a Summer month as average temperatures are similar to that of June.  Regardless, I'm not here to debate when Summer begins and ends (the Meteorological definition is arbitrary and only really used for statistical puposes).

[Earthshine]

33 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Meteorological summer is June, July, August

Astronomical summer is summer solstice to autumn equinox, so even that definition doesn't consider the whole of September as a summer month. 

That logic doesn't work because it wouldn't consider the entirety of June as a Summer month and we can all agree June is a Summer month.  Regardless, I was simply asking what September may bring weather-wise.  I don't want to get into a debate about what people consider Summer or not.

[Badgers01]

34 minutes ago, gbrunner12 said:

Summer ends on the 23rd of September so plenty of Summer left.  I'd say September is a Summer month as average temperatures are similar to that of June.  Regardless, I'm not here to debate when Summer begins and ends (the Meteorological definition is arbitrary and only really used for statistical puposes).

Fair enough - but I would say you did invite a response by saying September is a month is it not !!   I would not be surprised if we had a pleasant September however ....

[==MeteoMan==]

I'd like a settled, fairly sunny and mild September this year. Rain, wind and Atlantic garbage can wait until October.

[Earthshine]

Quote

Fair enough - but I would say you did invite a response by saying September is a month is it not !!   I would not be surprised if we had a pleasant September however ....

I'm starting to think it might make more sense to refer to the meteorological definition, considering this is a weather forum .  A repeat of 2006 where September sees a return of hot temperatures would be welcomed with open arms by myself!

[Earthshine]

5 minutes ago, CheeseAndOnionCrisps said:

I'd like a settled, fairly sunny and mild September this year. Rain, wind and Atlantic garbage can wait until October.

Completely agree.  

[sparky1972]

for me i am just hoping that from the 6th to the 10th of Sept are dry,  we are at the Goodwood Revival motor racing weekend and last year the rain was monsoon like for the whole weekend, after that weekend winter can arrive, lol.

[cheese]

September is definitely more summer than autumn in my books. In this part of the world September isn't just as warm as June, it's also drier and sunnier in percentage terms. September gets 40% of possible sun versus June's 37%. September is definitely a nicer month on average.

June is the only month here from May-Sep that has under 40% of possible sun - May gets 45%, then dips to 37% in June, before rising to 41% in July and August. Return of the westerlies having an impact?

 

[Snowyowl9]

September normally known for the earliest ground frost but not much else in the way of cold,never seen snow in September although it has in the past in extreme events.

Snow would only of been in the NE then.

[Sunny76]

17 hours ago, gbrunner12 said:

I'm starting to think it might make more sense to refer to the meteorological definition, considering this is a weather forum .  A repeat of 2006 where September sees a return of hot temperatures would be welcomed with open arms by myself!

No thanks. That would mean a mild winter, which I hate.

[Sunny76]

17 hours ago, cheese said:

September is definitely more summer than autumn in my books. In this part of the world September isn't just as warm as June, it's also drier and sunnier in percentage terms. September gets 40% of possible sun versus June's 37%. September is definitely a nicer month on average.

June is the only month here from May-Sep that has under 40% of possible sun - May gets 45%, then dips to 37% in June, before rising to 41% in July and August. Return of the westerlies having an impact?

 

Although it can be warm or sometimes hot for a little while, it doesn’t match the longer days of May to July, when the summer is at its peak. 

For me, September always spells the end of summer and start of autumn. Very much a transitional month, and a process that usually starts taking hold towards the end of August.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

No thanks. That would mean a mild winter, which I hate.

How do you work that one out, S76?

[Sunny76]

A very mild winter followed the summer of 2006, which had a poor August, but a warm September and October.

[Harry233]

Would like to see a spell of warm sunny weather in September at some point but also some proper chilly nights. Last September failed to deliver that, it never exceeded 20.C at the coldest night was only 4.C.

[BruenSryan]

5 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

How do you work that one out, S76?

Historically, there aren't many dry and especially warm Septembers followed by cold Winters. Unsettled Septembers are a different story such as 1946, 1962, 1981, 1995 and 2010. Not impossible to have a dry settled September and a cold Winter following though, 2009 was a recent example.

[Sunny76]

4 minutes ago, BruenSryan said:

Historically, there aren't many dry and especially warm Septembers followed by cold Winters. Unsettled Septembers are a different story such as 1946, 1962, 1981, 1995 and 2010. Not impossible to have a dry settled September and a cold Winter following though, 2009 was a recent example.

1987 had a cold September, and that was followed by a mild winter. 

[Earthshine]

22 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

No thanks. That would mean a mild winter, which I hate.

How about a September like 2006 then followed by a winter like 2009/2010 

[Earthshine]

17 hours ago, Harry233 said:

Would like to see a spell of warm sunny weather in September at some point but also some proper chilly nights. Last September failed to deliver that, it never exceeded 20.C at the coldest night was only 4.C.

Last September was terrible.  I think Braemar would be the place for you during September 2015 where are diurnal temperature range of 25.3C was recorded.

[Harry233]

3 hours ago, gbrunner12 said:

Last September was terrible.  I think Braemar would be the place for you during September 2015 where are diurnal temperature range of 25.3C was recorded.

Yes I remember that well it went from -1.3.C in the morning to 24.0.C by the afternoon even more that happened on the last day of the month. I recorded a dirunal of 22.1.C on the 30th of September 2015 Minimum of 0.2.C to 22.3.C.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

21 hours ago, BruenSryan said:

Historically, there aren't many dry and especially warm Septembers followed by cold Winters. Unsettled Septembers are a different story such as 1946, 1962, 1981, 1995 and 2010. Not impossible to have a dry settled September and a cold Winter following though, 2009 was a recent example.

I was just saying earlier on the Summer thread how some years ago I heard the same theory and that based on this I want Summer like conditions to be completely behind us once September starts. As you say though September 2009 was still followed by a cold Winter and more recently September 2015 was the coolest September in central England since 1986 yet it was followed by a very mild Winter. So maybe what it's like here in September doesn't necessarily make or break what the following Winter will be like. There might not be any connection at all even and any trend is perhaps purely coincidental?