Hurricane Lane

[pip22]

Hurricane Lane becomes a Cat 4 storm as Hawaii braces for impact. The storm winds are up to 150mph, not far from a Cat 5.

 

[pip22]

 

 

[milkmaid]

i see it's a 5 now ,

[Lauren]

Lane will very likely hit/graze Hawaii at a Cat 5. A hurticane of the strength has not hit Hawaii for over 50 years. Hawaii is not built for Hurricanes. Many houses are poorly built and there is an enourmous risk of landslides.

Unless there's a significant weakening, when could be about to see some serious devastation.

[summer blizzard]

I must admit that when i looked a few days it looked like moving gently north west giving Hawaii nothing more than a few waves. Although a direct hit is avoided the turn now looks sharper and the islands should see hurricane conditions (not major conditions though, eye is too far away). 

[pip22]

Hurricane Lane strengthens to a dangerous Category 5 storm on its way to Hawaii

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/08/22/us/hurricane-lane-hawaii-wxc/index.html

 

[pip22]

Gusts up to 196MPH reported.

Governor David Ige‏Verified account @GovHawaii

#HurricaneLane 11PM update as of August 21 maintains strength of Category 5 with winds 160 mph, Gusts 195 mph, 350 mi SSE of Hawaii island. If you haven’t done so, I urge you to prepare and plan now: http://dod.hawaii.gov/hiema/  #Lane #HiGov #HInews

JD Rudd - News5 ☈‏Verified account @jdrudd

#HurricaneLane is bigger than the entire state of Ohio. .-.-.-.-.-. Let that sink in for a second. Now imagine that thing swirling around and around with wind speeds over 150mph. Wow.

[pip22]

Lane is now a Category 4 storm.

[Polar Maritime]

Now dropped to a cat 4 but still life threatening.

[weirpig]

Latest track 

[Lauren]

I think it's now a dead cert the islands will be getting a battering. I hope the people get out of this with as little loss of life as possible.

[summer blizzard]

Given that track and intensity guidance in the 2015-2018 seasons has put the Euro ensemble mean so far ahead of the other models in the tropics that you may as well not bother with them (UKMO was number 1 in the tropics during 2014) what is that saying. 

[summer blizzard]

[pip22]

Up to 20 inches of rain may fall in Big Island, Hawaii. That is about 500mm of rain!!

Prayers for Hawaii.

 

 

 

[Lauren]

Good live feed from the Big Island. Waves are getting more aggressive by the minute.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=319011595342184&id=129524519873

[summer blizzard]

GFS is a direct hit!

[Lauren]

But EURO is not.

Which will be correct? Only time will tell.

[pip22]

WTPA32 PHFO 231445
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number  36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
500 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018
 
...LANE CREEPING CLOSER TO HAWAII...
...TORRENTIAL RAIN SOAKING THE BIG ISLAND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 157.4W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Hawaii County
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
 
Interests in the the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 157.4 West. Lane is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest and little change in forward speed is expected
today. A turn toward the north is anticipated tonight and Friday, as
Lane's forward motion slows. A turn toward the west is expected on
Saturday and Sunday, with an increase in forward speed. On the
forecast track, the center of Lane will move very close to or over
the portions of the main Hawaiian islands later today through
Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is forecast during the next 
couple of days. Lane is expected to remain a hurricane as it draws
closer to the islands.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). NOAA buoy 51002 located about 250 miles southwest of the
Big Island recently reported sustained winds of 50 mph (80 km/h)
and a gust of 64 mph (104 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on portions of the Big
Island beginning later this morning, with hurricane conditions
expected in some areas by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin over portions of Maui County later today,
with hurricane conditions expected in some areas by Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Oahu late
tonight, with hurricane conditions expected Friday into Friday
night.
 
RAINFALL: Rain bands from Hurricane Lane will continue to overspread
the Hawaiian Islands. Excessive rainfall associated with Lane will
impact the Hawaiian Islands into the weekend, leading to significant
and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected
to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with
localized amounts in excess of 30 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.
Over 12 inches of rain has already fallen on portions of the Big
Island.
 
SURF: As Lane is slow-moving, large swells generated by the
hurricane  will severely impact the Hawaiian Islands over the next
couple of days. These swells will produce very large and damaging
surf along exposed west and south facing shorelines. A prolonged
period of high surf will likely lead to significant coastal erosion.
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
 

[Lauren]

Already reports of landslides on the Big Island and it's barely started there.

[pip22]

This latest public advisory just came out 50 minutes ago:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/archive/2018/TCPCP2.EP142018.36A.201808231758

Next update is at 9pm GMT.

The one that I posted before is the previous one.

 

[pip22]

 

[pip22]

 

[summer blizzard]

Euro caves!

[pip22]

Eric Holthaus‏Verified account @EricHolthaus

Update, 11am Thurs Hawaii time: #HurricaneLane remains a Category 4, and has already produced nearly 20 inches of rain on the Big Island. Historic flooding is likely. The worst of the hurricane's impact is starting now for Maui and Oahu, and will last for the next ~48 hours.

[pip22]

Eric Holthaus‏Verified account @EricHolthaus

Both the GFS (L) and Euro (R) continue to show a 60-70% chance that #HurricaneLane will move very near or over Maui and/or Oahu. Both models forecast the hurricane to move closer to the islands than the official forecast. This is a trend we need to keep watching.

 

 

GFS ^^

ECM ^^