Hurricane Isaac

[Iceberg]

This has now been named. 

Ive for a feeling this will be another interesting one. 

The path has it going straight into the Caribbean as a hurricane. 

Busy time coming up for the nhc and the hurricane hunters. 

[Iceberg]

Isaac continues to be better organised. It is expected to hit the first islands as a cat 2 hurricane. 

 

[summer blizzard]

Both Euro and GFS have killed this in the Carribean for the past three runs at least however it's notable that neither of them have had it even a Hurricane at any point.

[summer blizzard]

Now a Hurricane.

[crimsone]

Continues to look as if the environment in the Caribbean just isn't favourable for this one... not that the Antilles get to be much pleased about that fact. 

[karyo]

The 0z GEM takes Isaak through the Caribbean as a TS and then it becomes a hurricane again as he enters the GOM heading for Texas. 

The other models look far less interesting.

[Had Worse]

Could be a slow burner and then a flame thrower. 

Entering the GOM is always a worry for forecasters.

[karyo]

6 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Could be a slow burner and then a flame thrower. 

Entering the GOM is always a worry for forecasters.

Indeed! I think it will depend on the path and influence that Florence makes. For example, the UKMO makes Issac the little satellite of Florence, as she spins him northwards into the Atlantic. The ECM takes him west until he dissipates completely. 

[summer blizzard]

Issac is still struggling due to a tilted vortex likely caused by interaction with Helene. As she turns north Issac may cope better closer to the Leewards.

Euro and GFS both kill him around Jamaca however not all models do. In terms of long term track the weakeness from Florence may in the long term suggest a Charlie/Dennis path i think.

[crimsone]

So, it's looking like Isaac might be about to attempt to thread the yucatan/cuban eye of the needle into the GoM in around 6 or 7 days time.

Not an overabundance of surface heat on the florida side of that, but on the texas/mexico side it's looking quite warm right now.

[summer blizzard]

Issac has another two days to go before conditions improve but the storm is moving far too fast, is sheared and has a tilted vortex. It's a mess. 

[Lauren]

Trying to find some decent webcams for Martinique, Guadeloupe or St Lucia.

[summer blizzard]

You can see Issac well in the image below. Low level center is clear but little convection to the west with everything being blown off east due to shear and speed (21mph). You can also see how large Florence's flow is.

For this morning the GFS kills it within 4 days, Euro has it hang on and hit as a Hurricane in Texas. 

[Had Worse]

wrong thead

[karyo]

Today's models completely kill Isaak. 

From this weekend onwards the tropics will look very quiet.

[Lauren]

I wonder if he'll reform in the gulf.

[karyo]

12 minutes ago, Lauren said:

I wonder if he'll reform in the gulf.

Although he has weaken to a depression, he produces some really heavy rain today in the Caribbean.