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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

because BA said it became the least blocked in the extended.

Fair enough just my thoughts.

It's most likely finding it difficult to work out where blocking will set up.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

because BA said...

No offence to anyone, but that reminds of when I was at school!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Ed Stone said:

No offence to anyone, but that reminds of when I was at school!

Yes but BA has knowledge of how to interpret clusters, you're schoolmates probably didn't.

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

Am I to assume cold just in time for Christmas or even between Christmas and New Year is looking a lot less likely now then?

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
4 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Am I to assume cold just in time for Christmas or even between Christmas and New Year is looking a lot less likely now then?

It was never looking likely anyway. But looks pretty much gone now.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, Chertseystreamer79 said:

Mods...can you do a thread of the top 10 best snipes of the year which you have had to take down?

 Would be so much more entertaining than what the models a churning out for now....(This is so lull before the snowstorm if you ask me though!)

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Am I to assume cold just in time for Christmas or even between Christmas and New Year is looking a lot less likely now then?

A frost is certainly possible, I mean compared to recent years that's not too bad. Equinox on 21st, clock starts ticking though...no memorable December cold spell likely once again.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
12 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Am I to assume cold just in time for Christmas or even between Christmas and New Year is looking a lot less likely now then?

more or less...running through the ecm 12z's (as I have been doing of the last week or so and the post day 10 potential) doesn't look good in fact we're really treading water and getting nowhere currently.  A brief mid-Atlantic height rise just before Xmas and shifts southwards... A frost is possible lol! we're really scraping the bottom of the barrel. 

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Worth remembering that after an SSW, it takes a couple of weeks for the tropospheric effects to take hold, as we all know. Certainly in Feb 2018, if I recall correctly it was around 2 weeks and model output only became really consistently interesting in the week before the SSW as NWP began to process what was happening. If we're saying end of December/early Jan for the warming, then we would be hoping for some really interesting output showing at around Christmas time. Until then it's best to be patient regarding the SSW. 

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

If I’m reading this right this is forecasted to be stronger than   Feb/March 2018

0C64E585-9BEC-4432-B3B2-9AF4D1EA828B.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Probably due to me not completely understanding the potential but I`m getting pretty tired of hearing about SSW/charts of SSW in this thread. There is a thread for that.

Sorry not being grumpy but if we are talking about the models then unless someone shows the effect combined with a model chart then it`s a hard watch in here.

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Posted
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
16 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Am I to assume cold just in time for Christmas or even between Christmas and New Year is looking a lot less likely now then?

Impossible to answer that question as you don't provide a reference point (much less likely than it was when?). Perhaps I will assume you mean since August this year - in which case I would answer 'no - it is much more likely now'! (chin-up)

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
8 minutes ago, fromey said:

If I’m reading this right this is forecasted to be stronger than   Feb/March 2018

0C64E585-9BEC-4432-B3B2-9AF4D1EA828B.jpeg

That's certainly my thinking yes

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

ECM 12z has some reasonable ideas going forward but possibly doesn’t ease off the westerly progression quite soon enough bearing in mind tropical adjustments still unfolding in the models as a whole.

For what it’s with, that day 10 has the pieces in place for the first northerly with any real bite to it of the season so far.

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
7 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Probably due to me not completely understanding the potential but I`m getting pretty tired of hearing about SSW/charts of SSW in this thread. There is a thread for that.

Sorry not being grumpy but if we are talking about the models then unless someone shows the effect combined with a model chart then it`s a hard watch in here.

Exeter pretty bullish on an Easterly. 

Just a matter of time. 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
1 minute ago, ZK099 said:

Feel free to ask about the effects, or even look them up if need be. Fact of the matter is, is that the SSW will hopefully at some point have a profound effect on model output. SSW forecasts are also part of model output to be honest. 

In a nutshell, an SSW either displaces or splits the Polar Vortex, while also causing a reversal in westerly winds to easterly, high up in the atmosphere. This opens the door to northern blocking, and can cause easterly winds to become established at our level. Northern blocking can result in cold weather somewhere at our latitude- we just have to hope it sets up favourably for the UK. We want to see this reflected in model output soon. 

 

Bottom line, the SSW is so closely linked to cold hunting and model output that it has to be mentioned and brought into the discussion regularly. 

I know the basics but chasing these charts in here isn`t right, it is a strat based subject. We are all chasing cold but as you will well know an SSW does not ensure us being entrenched up to our necks in cold. 

Anyway carry on.

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Posted
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
11 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Sorry not being grumpy but if we are talking about the models then unless someone shows the effect combined with a model chart then it`s a hard watch in here.

I guess the ssw graphics do come from models - I quite like to see them as context to operational runs. I do feel that when ssw graphics are posted, though, more often than not they could do with a little more meat in terms of interpretation viz our hunt for cold (as often happens with other model graphics too)

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes but BA has knowledge of how to interpret clusters, you're schoolmates probably didn't.

Honestly mate, there was no slight intended; you just took me back a few years...that's all!:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
33 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Am I to assume cold just in time for Christmas or even between Christmas and New Year is looking a lot less likely now then?

We basically just need anything other than between southerly and westerly. Every other direction will be at least chilly if not cold/very cold. Even a high over the UK would allow for cold, probably the most likely option for Christmas other than what we've got now!

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
13 minutes ago, snowray said:

A frost is certainly possible, I mean compared to recent years that's not too bad. Equinox on 21st, clock starts ticking though...no memorable December cold spell likely once again.

Well if that does turn out to be the case it should be noted that in my area at least, December 2017 was already miles better than December 2018 with colder temperatures and 3 or 4 days with full snow cover by this point in the month. I suppose there's a small chance that this month could pleasantly surprise me yet but for now I think it would be better hoping that January 2019 delivers the goods, which seems more likely at this point at least, though I won't take it as a given by any means, considering this month was touted by some as been something it hasn't been a while back. Just got to hope we land right eventually though and I've seen it before with cold spells looking like they may come at some point in advance, only for it to be a fairly dragged out affair that gets there in the end. Both March's 2013 an 2018 come to mind in that regard, with the February's before them been talked up in the January's before them. This at least gives me some hope that at least either Jannuary or February or better still both might land right for once this Winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Honestly mate, there was no slight intended; you just took me back a few years...that's all!:santa-emoji:

no worries - don't worry about me im old skool, not one of the modern generation

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
15 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Exeter pretty bullish on an Easterly. 

Just a matter of time. 

Agree...probably in April, don't hang your hat on what the MetO are saying into the New Year!

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