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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

At least you've had the privilege of having already seen snaw

Yes i guess so, but the milder air has finally won out here this evening and im having to say goodbye to my 2 days of lying snaw, i feel like ive been robbed by the milder air, snaw stealing poxy Atlantic how dare it. oh well still got around 4 months more when i might see it come back. i for one still think that January is gonna be a stonking month for many of us and it will all be smiles and hugs at the end of the day.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Yes i guess so, but the milder air has finally won out here this evening and im having to say goodbye to my 2 days of lying snaw, i feel like ive been robbed by the milder air, snaw stealing poxy Atlantic how dare it. oh well still got around 4 months more when i might see it come back. i for one still think that January is gonna be a stonking month for many of us and it will all be smiles and hugs at the end of the day.

And umpteen days of lying models!:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The main 3 broadly on the same idea with high pressure not far away for the Christmas period. I can't see anything really mid like some years so in that respect temps shouldn't be too high even if it isn't snowing/bitterly cold it would be as close to seasonal as you could hope for by the UK's standards

gfs2.2018122412_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.f194213c3d0091e54b59c517a9b0abe2.pngecm2.2018122412_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.6739d1a487efed06f0d5e4b7ea416703.pngukm2.2018122412_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.c4c930c237ed2435970dd565a6db562a.png

Ukmo has the high further north so would have more a Northerly element to it's winds so likely the best of its cold weather your looking..

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
6 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Yes i guess so, but the milder air has finally won out here this evening and im having to say goodbye to my 2 days of lying snaw, i feel like ive been robbed by the milder air, snaw stealing poxy Atlantic how dare it. oh well still got around 4 months more when i might see it come back. i for one still think that January is gonna be a stonking month for many of us and it will all be smiles and hugs at the end of the day.

2 days of lying snaw?! That's a whole winters worth down here! 

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Just now, bobbydog said:

2 days of lying snaw?! That's a whole winters worth down here! 

im expecting a lot more to come. not as good as last winter mind, by this time the dustbin lids had already missed 7 days off school due to the snaw.  im pretty confident that with all the back ground stuff thats going and the thoughts of the more senior members (knowledge not age) that we are in for heck of a winter spell that could live long in the memory for many of us not just us lot in Scotland coz we always get snaw dont we.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
5 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Is that not how its spelt? bugger it, i should have turnt up to school more often.

I think so, MS?? I hope it's just polysemous! Then again, wasn't he something out of Greek mythology?:help:

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, More Snow said:

im expecting a lot more to come. not as good as last winter mind, by this time the dustbin lids had already missed 7 days off school due to the snaw.  im pretty confident that with all the back ground stuff thats going and the thoughts of the more senior members (knowledge not age) that we are in for heck of a winter spell that could live long in the memory for many of us not just us lot in Scotland coz we always get snaw dont we.

Id be way more confident living in Scotland, some people in Scotland bound to be fed up of the snaw, 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
17 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I've noted that yr.no which uses ECM data for its forecasts hasn't updated thus evening after the 12z. Usually a good sign it's a questionable operational run. 

Spreads say that the op has some cluster support so I doubt the theory tonight has much credence 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Spreads say that the op has some cluster support so I doubt the theory tonight has much credence 

What are the clusters suggesting Blue?

Is the signal for the high moving north maintained?

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9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Id be way more confident living in Scotland, some people in Scotland bound to be fed up of the snaw, 

Probably, maybe i should set up a home swap website. so folk who want to see snaw can swap homes with folk that are fed up of it..i reckon that could catch on. www.snawhomes.co.uk

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3 minutes ago, Paul said:

Can we steer this back to the models please, a bit of drift is ok, but it's mostly been random stuff for a page or two now.

Sorry my bad...

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
5 minutes ago, Paul said:

Can we steer this back to the models please, a bit of drift is ok, but it's mostly been random stuff for a page or two now.

Oops, sorry Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Sort of reminds me of a early-mid Spring pattern this. Weak Jet with flabby lows and pockets of high pressure everywhere. No intensity in cold across most of Europe. (for now of course)

gfs-0-84.png?18gfs-1-90.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

What are the clusters suggesting Blue?

Is the signal for the high moving north maintained?

Clusters not out till 22:35

spreads say the upper ridge into s Ireland and wales by day 10 is solid 

heights west to east across Scotland look less certain (similar to the op)

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

That's me. I cannae stand the trauma of watching the Pub Run ooze out! 'Night...:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
3 hours ago, Stuie W said:

I can`t fathom out a cold scenario from here...

 

ECH1-216.png

ECH0-216.png

Try the archive chart for 19th December 1962 Stuie you'll get a pleasant surprise.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 - high pressure until week 4 when Greenland height / Brisceuroandi trough is the signal

That week 4 low anomoly  is broad and does looks a bit west based neg NAO .....

i guess the pattern does show that the heights have to retrogress which means we see a cold flow as the block heads nw and the low anomolys could be cold enough for us 

i guess the fact that it’s showing HLB mid jan onwards is continuity from previous output .......

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 - high pressure until week 4 when Greenland height / Brisceuroandi trough is the signal

It's a shame that by week 4 we'd already be heading into the second half of the Winter! Doesn't time fly when you're enjoying yourself..

No really though if I could bank on that actually coming off for around January week 3/4 I'd take it right now.

Anything compared to flat looking charts like this.. gfs-0-138.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

A typical westerly ridge/trough scenario this week, generally unsettled, nothing especially wet, and mild for all, notably so in the south - not at all seasonal, but we've been here the last 8 years now - i.e. a mild unsettled run in to christmas. 

Models are though all in agreement of high pressure nosing in on the scene just in time for christmas itself, which should bring calmer conditions and a return to frost, and possible fog. Question is, how far north will heights ridge, and where will the core centre of heights position themselves.. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

That week 4 low anomoly  is broad and does looks a bit west based neg NAO .....

i guess the pattern does show that the heights have to retrogress which means we see a cold flow as the block heads nw and the low anomolys could be cold enough for us 

I have to say i am a little disappointed with this run TBH, given some of the more stunning output of the last few runs.

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