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Weather Model Experiment Results


Zenarcher

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Posted
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, good sun at other times with appropriate rain.
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL

A really interesting and informative tranche of research.  Thank you.  Look forward to tranche 2.

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Posted
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex

As a data analyst myself this is fascinating, thanks for all the hard work!I

I'mactually starting a project at work using the Dark Sky API to get forecast data for multiple sites, good to see its verification stats are more than reasonable.

I look forward to seeing what else you come up with.

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On 16/01/2019 at 17:53, snefnug said:

A really interesting and informative tranche of research.  Thank you.  Look forward to tranche 2.

 

23 hours ago, fujita5 said:

As a data analyst myself this is fascinating, thanks for all the hard work!I

I'mactually starting a project at work using the Dark Sky API to get forecast data for multiple sites, good to see its verification stats are more than reasonable.

I look forward to seeing what else you come up with.

Thank's I'm glad you both found it interesting. It's good to have a better idea on how well each weather model does now and what ones to look at and ignore. I think people may need to pay more attention to the forecasts from Weather Underground and DarkSky because they both done really well.

Since DarkSky done well with Air Pressure and especially at 120 to 144 hours better than any other weather model you can view it's pressure charts although they aren't exactly clear without any isobars appearing on them so I've drawn on them to make them seem a bit clearer,

96 Hours,

96.thumb.png.ea5f9a9e530c45b77a9f3d562e2b20ed.png

120 Hours,

120.thumb.png.8384c249db9e3bd2f8b749d045427fba.png

144 Hours,

144.thumb.png.63710fdd7e8e9c87e499d8a201b8d465.png

Looks like it's a bit of a flat pattern it's going for.

Out of interest, I decided to see what the chances are for the upcoming cold spell I included Dark Sky, Weather Underground, BBC Weather, ICON and both the ECM GFS along with their ensemble mean. Location is London the chart shows the average daily temperature there is a pretty big disagreement between them for next week as the big red line shows the overall average temperature does look to drop between now and the 23rd of January after then temperatures rise slightly as we approach the end of January before they start to fall again,

mean.thumb.png.3df3f47bcb84cb263617db2ed210ec72.png

Edited by Zenarcher
  • Thanks 2
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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis

Good effort!

METO all the way. 

(PS I live on Lewis too) 

 

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