Cold hunt - models and chat

[Paul]

After a lot of thought, we've decided to revisit the hunt for cold style thread, and this is it!

In this thread, please feel free to discuss the model output with a cold slant, but should other weather types be showing in the output, discussing those is fine too.

Thread Moderation
The moderation in this thread will be on an impact basis, so if a post is likely to negatively impact the thread (by poisoning the atmosphere, creating lots of very off topic replies etc) then we'll moderate it. But for slightly off topic or bantery posts, we won't - so long as there is a general theme of the models running through the thread. 

This does mean that topics such as met office forecasts, tv forecasts, will it snow in my location type questions are still not allowed in this thread, as they are the types of things which will cause it to run off on a massive, non-model related tangent.

Want a stricter, more focused model thread?
As a sister-thread to this one, a focused, more in depth model thread is available. Please head to this thread for a slower paced, less bantery more strictly on-topic model discussion. 
Focused Model Discussion

Cross-posting between this and the focused thread is allowed, and encouraged - so please feel free to post your thoughts, model run summaries and the like into both threads if you wish.

We hope that these two threads offer the best of both worlds for everyone who want to follow and discuss the model output. 

Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
GFS
GFS FV3 (Para)
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR (3km)
NetWx-MR (9km)
Met-Office
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Model Comparison
Global Jet Stream
Stratosphere

[damianslaw]

Following on from my last two posts - whilst the models have today moved away from very cold conditions becoming entrenched in the medium term i.e. 5-8 days, they and the Ensembles are forecasting the change to the very cold in the longer term (very end of January), courtesy of the azores high finally moving far enough away to our west to enable ridging north towards Greenland behind a trigger deep low moving NW-SE on the jet, meeting hands with the arctic high - ECM keener to bring in the NE blast a little sooner than GFS.

Other factors including the MJO, favour this evolution. 

In the meantime a messy mix - but the foundations to deeper cold are setting up shop in the background.

 

[Met4Cast]

I think we can bin the GFS 18z already. The low to the East of Scotland is literally just sitting there frame after frame not moving whatsoever..

But otherwise, subtle improvements 

[captaincroc]

There is something very odd about the run as a small low appears around Scotland and literally doesn't move for 24 hours whilst everything else disrupts SE...Can someone explain how it stays still as the rest moves and disrupts?

[lamppost watcher]

Get the Bantz on!!!

 

[DCee]

Not sure I would agree with you there. The foundations are here and now, moving the pieces about might bring something colder but the chances are the same.

GEFS show HP domination in FI.

 

[Biensie]

Am I still on Net Weather? Or has everyone gone out tonight? 

[weathergeek]

3 minutes ago, lamppost watcher said:

Get the Bantz on!!!

 

Yaaayy!!! Just need our smiley like button again now!!

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Biensie said:

Am I still on Net Weather? Or has everyone gone out tonight? 

Oh the days of going out every Friday and Saturday night........

[MKN]

1 minute ago, Biensie said:

Am I still on Net Weather? Or has everyone gone out tonight? 

This idea of Paul's has backfired. Moan about one liners so end up with a forum with no posts instead. 

[chionomaniac]

I suspect that we are entering a rinse an repeat type scenario here. So probably we will see another slider followed by another easterly chance down the line - but will it stick?

[Djdazzle]

Bit confused about where to post now!

[DCee]

7 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

There is something very odd about the run as a small low appears around Scotland and literally doesn't move for 24 hours whilst everything else disrupts SE...Can someone explain how it stays still as the rest moves and disrupts?

The disturbance is in a slack flow north of the jetstream.

 

[IDO]

Be done with it: 

If we are going to have a toppler, speed it up, so we can move on! The pattern flattens faster again on this run...

[lorenzo]

The low hanging around the North East Coast retains the best of the coldest temps as the run moves along presumably making it harder to shift. will await a met explaining fully in a more articulate manner.

 

[Ice Day]

Model uncertainty continues, 18z at 138 vs the 12z. Pretty big difference at that range.

18z  12z 

Interestingly, Shannon Entropy has increased over the last 24 hours so some further wild swings over the next few days are to be expected. Will they be upgrades or downgrades though?

[January Snowstorm]

Just now, chionomaniac said:

I suspect that we are entering a rinse an repeat type scenario here. So probably we will see another slider followed by another easterly chance down the line - but will it stick?

Hi Chino, are you surprised that the recent ssw is still not bearing fruit in any model? It seems to be a winter of deep cold being around the corner. Only problem is the corner keeps moving

[Paul]

7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Bit confused about where to post now!

Both! Maybe commentate on the models and chat about it as they come out in here. Then once a run is complete perhaps summarise it with a more in depth post in the other thread. You could even cross post that into here.

[Wilxy]

Another low that has just stopped in its tracks! really odd run so far

[bluearmy]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Hi Chino, are you surprised that the recent ssw is still not bearing fruit in any model? It seems to be a winter of deep cold being around the corner. Only problem is the corner keeps moving

Nope - it’s just that the uk isn’t around that corner - most parts of the NH have been at some point!  

[Weathizard]

Atlantic active again... SSW not enough? Interesting that amongst all the waxing and waning we still can’t seem to get that lobe of vortex to weaken significantly... seems to only ever weaken in FI, hasn’t been getting any closer.

[Ice Day]

And what an odd shaped PV?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18Z rotten, 25th January, may get me shorts out

[Met4Cast]

The low sat to the E of Scotland really doesn’t make any sense while energy around it disrupts SEwards it doesn’t move at all

There’s no reason for it to just.. stop like that, I don’t think I’ve ever seen that on a model run before

[Lampostwatcher]

Just now, Ice Day said:

And what an odd shaped PV?

Its sticking one finger up at us