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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Here we go again, the start of the next wild goose chase...

image.thumb.png.c139e1065907410f3c7e0ae96097dc0a.png

Cue the Benny Hill music!

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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
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Posted

Just too many model threads to look at now back and forth more than the models themselves now

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Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted
4 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Meanwhile in a parallel universe, southern England prepares for an approaching snow stormJE216-21_tql2.GIF

Now that is nuts. I don't think I've ever seen a chart remotely like that, unless a 4 year old with hand tremors was drawing scribbles on a map!!!

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted

Second bite of the cherry could be the one?

gfsnh-0-234.thumb.png.05c00fddd419bdd5558823d8fd8d4a83.png

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

+9 in the north of scotland? Not what I call cold

138-778UK.gif

3's and 4's across the vast majority.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

Well that's nice.  A shiny new thread to discuss the rest of Autumn, or if we're lucky Winter.   

Despite mayhem on other models ,  JMA good to go,very much so at T264:

image.thumb.jpg.60ac6e480a8699ea22d49d551e232277.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.2d377a00d9fa2da3bb44dc0b5ec76ef3.jpg

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Kentish Snowman in Yorks Experienced

Kentish Snowman in Yorks

Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
Posted
3 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

Models all over the place, but almost all point towards a very mild turn in the weather next week.

Will be interesting to see what happens after. Will it be HP or wind and rain?

Is that a serious comment or are you under the influence?!  :drunk-emoji:

18z GFS brings in a long fetch cold NW next Monday which will feel bracing.  Be interesting to see where this run sits in the ensembles and whether there are still some -15 runs knocking around....

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

ECM and GFS at 240. Very very similar......hmmmmm! 

ECM image.thumb.png.f52c5b31406f11419f1a13b4777c9f5c.png GFS image.thumb.png.28ce158a26ba116f23c2214885c785f2.png

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snowfish1 Aficionado

snowfish1

Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
Posted
6 minutes ago, IDO said:

879187824_gfsnh-0-192(2).thumb.png.1925534f30be11da3a943306c909e8b3.png

Looking at the changes in the PV from the last run, it is far more disorganised and maybe we are seeing background signals finally hit the trop, possibly a quick response to a slow response? If yes, things could change fast.

Do you suspect the changed have yet to filter through to the models then? 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Just for fun of course but this is going to be a stonker, this huge trough is only clearing South slowly, there is still some serious frigid air to the NE, it could be dragged in on another E'ly by about 324.

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edinburgh_1992 Community Regular

edinburgh_1992

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
Posted
1 minute ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Is that a serious comment or are you under the influence?!  

18z GFS brings in a long fetch cold NW next Monday which will feel bracing.  Be interesting to see where this run sits in the ensembles and whether there are still some -15 runs knocking around....

Was joking with my last comment, but considering how this winter has gone so far it wouldn't surprise me

The long term definitely looks interesting, could see some major snowfalls with those charts. But let's wait until we start seeing them within a reasonable timeframe before we get too excited

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snowbob Seasoned

snowbob

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just for fun of course but this is going to be a stonker, this huge trough is only clearing South slowly, there is still some serious frigid air to the NE, it could be dragged in on another E'ly by about 324.

Do you not find this whole route odd feb

it just seems jaggered in some way

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted
1 minute ago, snowfish1 said:

Do you suspect the changed have yet to filter through to the models then? 

Possibly, tune in tomorrow to see if the trend continues...

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted

The drunken model (GFS 18Z) drops a Polar Vortex chunk over the UK at 240 hours.

D31F6688-4BD4-44EA-B271-A573F7DB4376.thumb.png.5adcb5432de35e9e3c68c67e64a7be41.png

Could be some very heavy snow over Southern UK if it was to come off like that. 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, snowbob said:

Do you not find this whole route odd feb

it just seems jaggered in some way

Well the charts earlier in the run suggested we were in danger of a west based setup, and we were getting mild sectors getting in the way of a decent NW flow, but that pooling was'nt being pushed away and just needed the sinking trough to orientate properly.

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
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Posted
24 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

If you look at the NH profile then that doesn’t add up with the disturbed trop vortex. So the SSW is having an effect but not for us.....yet

Incredible N Hemisphere chart.

GFSOPNH18_276_1.png

Despite the recent changes with the E,ly. I remain very excited with the current model output.

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted

Imagine if the disappointment of this week's potential failure, actually led to a much longer, more stable cold spell.

We're already seeing strong hints of this now in the models.

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Mr Frost Maestro

Mr Frost

Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
Posted

Yes! Yes! Yeeeeeessssssss!

Seems to be a recurring theme on the GFS runs of late...can we get it inside +96 hours though!? 

Now that is the real deal...for my location at least! 

 

88A1445B-3B3B-47D9-8F3E-5A200569B02F.png

5F8E0205-8BFA-4B55-846F-5F332ECA6ACA.png

FAFA57D2-0B07-4E0F-8CDE-E816542C3218.png

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted
Just now, TEITS said:

Incredible N Hemisphere chart.

GFSOPNH18_276_1.png

Despite the recent changes with the E,ly. I remain very excited with the current model output.

Why? 

Its always Jam tomorrow. 

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