Incoming Cold Spell Discussion - 28/01/2019 - 2/04/2019

[Deep Snow please]

For all your non-model upcoming cold spell discussion that isn't strictly regional based. 

 

Where's Tuesday's low going to affect?

 

Will it snow in my back yard on Wednesday?

 

Where are the latest met office weather warnings for?

 

Is Thursday's low weakening and does that stop my house being buried?

 

Is dry snow better than wet snow?

 

Will it rain? 

[Jordan S]

I think powdery snow and dry snow is the same thing.

[Deep Snow please]

4 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

I think powdery snow and dry snow is the same thing.

Knowing this place, there's some who could find a way to separate the two  

[Jo Farrow]

Met Office snow and Ice warnings updated this morning. Matrix shows SE snow still low prob. This morning's front page article https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9378-uk-weather-snow-is-likely-this-week-stay-tuned-much-colder-air-on-tuesday 

 

[mountain shadow]

22 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

Met Office snow and Ice warnings updated this morning. Matrix shows SE snow still low prob. This morning's front page article https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9378-uk-weather-snow-is-likely-this-week-stay-tuned-much-colder-air-on-tuesday 

 

Hi Jo,

Can you think of a reason why Northern Ireland is missing from this warning? Parts of Tyrone and Derry will be most exposed to the snow showers pushing in from the North West tomorrow and the Euro4 snow forecast is fairly bullish on NI snowfall.

Thanks in advance.

[Deep Snow please]

20 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Hi Jo,

Can you think of a reason why Northern Ireland is missing from this warning? Parts of Tyrone and Derry will be most exposed to the snow showers pushing in from the North West tomorrow and the Euro4 snow forecast is fairly bullish on NI snowfall.

 Thanks in advance.

The same reason they seem to be underestimating the potential snowfall for the North West imho, there focusing entirely on snowfall depths as the low pushes through and not very much on the shower's associated.

[Jo Farrow]

I suppose looking at the ingredients for a warning. Timing -yes Tues am rush. Population centre- not really. Snow amounts-not widespread, Scottish bit is for higher ground and Glasgow/M8. They may still issue one, but perhaps it is covered by the overall wintry story? Don't know. WBFL in Euro4 can be too low in these situations but only tomorrow will tell.

[Supacell]

The slider on December 10th 2017 brought proper snow to about 5 miles south of me, but just a dusting over Belper. This is looking similar. My guess is the same will happen again. Northern snow line will be around Derby.

Of course I hope this is not true.

[Deep Snow please]

8 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

I suppose looking at the ingredients for a warning. Timing -yes Tues am rush. Population centre- not really. Snow amounts-not widespread, Scottish bit is for higher ground and Glasgow/M8. They may still issue one, but perhaps it is covered by the overall wintry story? Don't know. WBFL in Euro4 can be too low in these situations but only tomorrow will tell.

100,000 people live in Derry. It's the second largest city in Northern Ireland.

 

Using their chart I'd place that as a yellow - low likelihood - high impact.

[weirpig]

UKMO UKV model for Tuesday  as it stands

[Polar Maritime]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

What Model is that taken from weirpig?

[weirpig]

Just now, Polar Maritime said:

Watch Model is that taken from weirpig?

Sorry  edited above  UKMO UKV  

[ghoneym]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Sorry  edited above  UKMO UKV  

Got a link for the website this is on please ?

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, ghoneym said:

Got a link for the website this is on please ?

Sorry Mate  its just a copy of what Ian Fergusson  has just posted on Twitter. 

[Northwest NI]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Hi Jo,

Can you think of a reason why Northern Ireland is missing from this warning? Parts of Tyrone and Derry will be most exposed to the snow showers pushing in from the North West tomorrow and the Euro4 snow forecast is fairly bullish on NI snowfall.

Thanks in advance.

Was wondering about that myself MS? 

Lookin at Weirpigs graphics above we will be peppered.

[ghoneym]

Just now, weirpig said:

Sorry Mate  its just a copy of what Ian Fergusson  has just posted on Twitter. 

Ah ok no problem. Maybe not a free to view then 

[winterof79]

Icon latest still shows pivot further north than some are predicting

[mountain shadow]

28 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Was wondering about that myself MS? 

Lookin at Weirpigs graphics above we will be peppered.

Certainly looks good for you guys in the North West, for us in County Down, just hoping that some showers manage to get East of Lough Neagh.

[stripeyfox]

24 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Icon latest still shows pivot further north than some are predicting

Does that show the band as being mostly rain (blue) with just the purple areas as snow? 

Forgive the noob question!
 

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, stripeyfox said:

Does that show the band as being mostly rain (blue) with just the purple areas as snow? 

Forgive the noob question!
 

Yes, look at the key chart underneath the picture. Pink = snow and Blue = rain (this isn't the same for all charts so always look for keys in images posted  )

[stripeyfox]

1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

Yes, look at the key chart underneath the picture. Pink = snow and Blue = rain (this isn't the same for all charts so always look for keys in images posted  )

Ta, couldn't see that on my phone!
 

 

[sparky1972]

afternoon all, well here we can look forward to rain and maybe a bit of sleet at times, thats what you get for being at sea level i guess, on the plus side it certainly looks like a few lucky peeps are going to get something wintry, all down to timing and a bit of luck though

[Updated_Weather]

10 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

afternoon all, well here we can look forward to rain and maybe a bit of sleet at times, thats what you get for being at sea level i guess, on the plus side it certainly looks like a few lucky peeps are going to get something wintry, all down to timing and a bit of luck though

I think it all depends how slow this front is - I can see anything after 6pm being wintry in nature, depending on Intensity may get a covering in quite a few places

[ChezWeather]

2 hours ago, Supacell said:

The slider on December 10th 2017 brought proper snow to about 5 miles south of me, but just a dusting over Belper. This is looking similar. My guess is the same will happen again. Northern snow line will be around Derby.

Of course I hope this is not true.

Most of the precip charts seem to have our region in a sweet spot for Thursday, plenty of time for that to change of course but it's looking alright for now 

[Updated_Weather]

2 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Most of the precip charts seem to have our region in a sweet spot for Thursday, plenty of time for that to change of course but it's looking alright for now 

Take precip charts with a pinch of salt, because I am sure it'll be different on the day.