March 2019 C.E.T. and E.W.P. forecast contests

[Earthshine]

7.5C for me, please.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the estimate of the CET over the next week based on the 12z GFS

The first graph is forecast with max, min, mean and the rolling CET. The second graph is the mean in relation the the daily high and low values
  

A cooling trend after today, but still more than 1.5C above the 81-10 average as we enter the middle 1/3 of the month. No record breaking mild days at least.

[feb1991blizzard]

That's why i think i have bust, i went high but not as high as i wanted due to them all being taken (i will have to re assess my strategy from now on and maybe take a position earlier), i think that the cold(ish) spell may well last until post 20th and bring the CET below my 6.6 and down to around average, but you would think near the end of the month though, that one short sharp warm spell will shoot it back up to over 7c again due to the strength of the sun, to avoid any warm spell all month from now on would be tough IMO.

[Roger J Smith]

The only good strategy is to stick with numbers that you think will verify, the number sharing that forecast is not much of a factor unless you can get in very close to the ideal number and be sole or first without a lot of equal error possibles on other side of the ideal. Let's say you like 7.4 and find four forecasts at that, and none at 7.3. So you might think, well my chances of getting a good score would be higher with 7.3. However, if the right number turned out to be 7.4 or higher then your score would go down one or more positions, the or more part comes from whether you are tied with a higher forecast (or more than one) at the value of equal departure. If the actual was 7.8, you would share with 8.3 and lose ranking to anyone who entered on that earlier than yourself. In probability terms, you may be slightly ahead by choosing the solo 7.3 over the fifth at 7.4, simply because there might be equal chances of either verifying so you have one chance for first and another chance for fifth or lower (probably 7th to 10th given other choices). In any case I wouldn't recommend going more than 0.5 away from your ideal choice to gain ranking points, you would have to be wrong about your ideal choice for that to happen under any circumstances. Looking at past years the ideal strategy is probably to predict 0.2 to 0.8 degrees above the recent 30-year normals all the time, maybe varying the amount by your hunch but staying away from colder or very warm values unless you feel very strongly about them. Remember also, consensus can never score lower than about 50 out of 100 when reality is at one extreme or the other, and its average score will be close to the top quarter of the field or even higher in some years. 

[Summer Sun]

8.9 to the 3rd

4.3c above the 61 to 90 average
4.0c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.9 to the 3rd

Current low this month 7.9 to the 1st

[feb1991blizzard]

10 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

The only good strategy is to stick with numbers that you think will verify, the number sharing that forecast is not much of a factor unless you can get in very close to the ideal number and be sole or first without a lot of equal error possibles on other side of the ideal. Let's say you like 7.4 and find four forecasts at that, and none at 7.3. So you might think, well my chances of getting a good score would be higher with 7.3. However, if the right number turned out to be 7.4 or higher then your score would go down one or more positions, the or more part comes from whether you are tied with a higher forecast (or more than one) at the value of equal departure. If the actual was 7.8, you would share with 8.3 and lose ranking to anyone who entered on that earlier than yourself. In probability terms, you may be slightly ahead by choosing the solo 7.3 over the fifth at 7.4, simply because there might be equal chances of either verifying so you have one chance for first and another chance for fifth or lower (probably 7th to 10th given other choices). In any case I wouldn't recommend going more than 0.5 away from your ideal choice to gain ranking points, you would have to be wrong about your ideal choice for that to happen under any circumstances. Looking at past years the ideal strategy is probably to predict 0.2 to 0.8 degrees above the recent 30-year normals all the time, maybe varying the amount by your hunch but staying away from colder or very warm values unless you feel very strongly about them. Remember also, consensus can never score lower than about 50 out of 100 when reality is at one extreme or the other, and its average score will be close to the top quarter of the field or even higher in some years. 

Thanks - true about not varying from what you think by too much although i doubt that anyone actually ever goes into the competition actually confident that they will hit it bang on the nose, actually based on the latest GFS / GEFS, my forecast is looking a lot better this morning.

EDIT :  in fact based on the last 2 ops, i might even bust on the high side.

Edited March 4, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[snowray]

But its not too late for some sharp frosts either in late March, it's going to be colder than Feb this year if you ask me Feb. 

[Summer Sun]

8.1 to the 4th

3.6c above the 61 to 90 average
3.3c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.9 to the 3rd

Current low this month 7.9 to the 1st

[damianslaw]

After a notably mild day tomorrow in the CET zone, we should see the CET drop markedly from Thursday onwards, not exceptionally so, but enough to bring it down closer to normal values by mid month - if the synoptics currently on offer come off. The minimum temps will help keep values up, as the southern part of the CET zone won't see much in the way of polar air at least initially.

There is a good chance we will end up with a colder March than February for the first time since 2013, but the probability of this happening this year is far higher than normal given the unusually mild February.

I'm already sensing a marked downward correction this year, the running mean seems very high at the moment..despite it being very mild, means haven't been especially so.

[Summer Sun]

7.9 to the 5th

3.3c above the 61 to 90 average
2.9c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.9 to the 3rd

Current low this month 7.9 to the 1st & 5th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield showing little of the cool down still very mild At the moment we are at 7.4C +2.8C above normal. Rainfall 25.3mm 39.7% of average. Plenty of more rain today so will have beaten last months total six days in.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the estimate of the CET over the next week based on the 12z GFS

The first graph is the forecast with max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the mean in relation the the daily high and low values
    

A cooling trend towards mid month now becoming established on the GFS, with a string of below average days coming up over the next week. This should take the CET to within 1C on the average by mid month, possibly within 0.5C.

[Roger J Smith]

Following the 48 times that February reached 5.9 or higher on the CET, this is the distribution of March CET by absolute values and also by difference from February (second entry). Data are shown in three columns, the warmest cases of February on the left. 2019 is shown with ?? outcomes. Differences of more than +1.0 are colour coded red and all negative changes are blue, so those not coded are close to the average 0.0 to 0.9 increase for these milder Februaries (the average increase from all Februaries being about 1.5 degrees).

YEAR __ Mar CET _ diff _____ YEAR __ Mar CET _ diff ____ YEAR __ MAR CET _ diff

1779 ____ 7.9 ____ 0.0 ______ 1997 ____ 8.4 ____+1.7______ 1877 ____ 4.9 ____--1.3

1869 ____ 3.8 ____--3.7______ 2019 ____ ???____??? ______ 2014 ____ 7.6 ____+1.4

1990 ____ 8.3 ____+1.0______ 1790 ____ 6.4 ____--0.2______ 1775 ____ 6.0 ____--0.1

1998 ____ 7.9 ____+0.6______ 1815 ____ 7.3 ____+0.8______ 1848 ____ 5.9 ____--0.2

1794 ____ 7.0 ____--0.9______ 1918 ____ 5.7 ____--0.8______ 1871 ____ 7.3 ____+1.2

1903 ____ 7.1 ____ 0.0 ______ 1995 ____ 5.6 ____--0.9______ 1882 ____ 7.4 ____+1.3

1945 ____ 7.9 ____+0.8______ 1732 ____ 6.1 ____--0.3______ 1943 ____ 6.5 ____+0.4

2002 ____ 7.6 ____+0.6______ 1734 ____ 8.1 ____+1.7______ 2017 ____ 8.7 ____+2.6

1867 ____ 3.1 ____--3.6______ 1817 ____ 5.5 ____--0.9______ 1662 ____ 6.0 ____ 0.0

1872 ____ 6.8 ____--0.1______ 1826 ____ 6.3 ____--0.1______ 1686 ____ 7.0 ____+1.0

1961 ____ 8.2 ____+1.3______ 1846 ____ 6.1 ____--0.3______ 1733 ____ 5.9 ____--0.1

1739 ____ 5.8 ____--1.0______ 1850 ____ 4.7 ____--1.7______ 1920 ____ 7.2 ____+1.2

1914 ____ 6.1 ____--0.7______ 2011 ____ 6.7 ____+0.3______ 1787 ____ 6.8 ____+0.9

1926 ____ 6.3 ____--0.5______ 1822 ____ 7.8 ____+1.5______ 1883 ____ 1.9 ____--4.0

1702 ____ 5.8 ____--0.9______ 1868 ____ 6.8 ____+0.5______ 1946 ____ 5.1 ____--0.8

1750 ____ 8.2 ____+1.5______ 2000 ____ 7.6 ____+1.3______ 1989 ____ 7.5 ____+1.6

================================================================

The average CET of all 47 cases is 6.5 deg C, and the average change from February is +0.04 deg.

21 cases fell by at least 0.1 and 14 rose by 1.0 or more, the other 12 stayed in the range 0.0 to +0.9.

Only four cases had a considerably higher ranking March than February. 2017 went from tied 35th warmest Feb to 3rd warmest March, and 1997 went from tied 15th to 4th warmest. In 1734 after tied 23rd warmest February, came the 10th warmest March. In 1822 March was 17th warmest after February tied 30th. 

The largest drop in ranks was 1867, from tied 9th February to tied 333rd March. 1883 had a larger absolute drop of 4.0 degrees, from tied 45th warmest February to 4th coldest (357th warmest) March. 1869 came close with the second warmest February followed by tied 302nd warmest March. 

However, the vast majority of these February-March combinations fall within 1 degree of status quo and the average March ranking is probably around 150th place. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Currently on Temperature (°C):Mean (1 minute)  6.3 C , Mean (min+max)   6.6 C here with the 1981-2010 average being 5.9 C using the min+max currently 0.7 C above average and rainfall currently on 36.0 mm with the 1981-2010 average being 62.7 mm currently 57.4 % of average 

[Summer Sun]

8.1 to the 6th

3.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.9c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.9 to the 3rd

Current low this month 7.9 to the 1st & 5th 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

8.1 to the 6th

3.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.9c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.9 to the 3rd

Current low this month 7.9 to the 1st & 5th 

Should be coming down soon Gav, we have gone for similar CET's, we should be more or less on target in about 10 days, its just can we avoid some anomalous warmth at the end of the month to scupper us.

EDIT : mind you if its dry warmth, it could help my rainfall prediction, looking at the models there is going to be nearly a months worth of rainfall in the first half so a dry(ish) last few days might bring my 100+ prediction into the frame.

Edited March 7, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield unchanged at 7.4C +2.8C above normal. Rainfall galloping along nicely at 37mm 58.1% of average rainfall.

[Summer Sun]

7.9 to the7th

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.9 to the 3rd

Current low this month 7.9 to the 1st, 5th & 7th

[The PIT]

First drop of the month. Sunny Sheffield at 7.2C +2.5C above normal. Rainfall at 39mm 61.2% of the monthly average.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 12z GFS

The first graph is the forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low values
  

That cooling trend is still there, but not as strong in the near term as it was a few days ago. The potential for some particularly chilly days are there around mid month, but a little too far off to be relied on at the moment. Unlike last month, not record breaking days or anything particularly of note in the forecast.

[Summer Sun]

7.5 to the 8th

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.9 to the 3rd

Current low this month 7.5 to the 8th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.9C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall 41.2mm 64.7% of the monthly average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.6C +1.8C above normal. Rainfall at 52.2mm 81.9% of the monthly average so should be over average in a few days time.

[damianslaw]

CET values will continue to drop over coming days so suspect we will be in the low-mid 6s by this time next week. Too early to call how things might pan out later in the month, might be a warm up, but unlikely will be enough to return a notably above average month. I do think the balance is probably in favour of something slightly above normal, much of the CET zone staying out of any notably cool uppers, different in the north, where a slightly below average month might occur.

[Summer Sun]

7.5 to the 9th

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.9 to the 3rd

Current low this month 7.5 to the 8th & 9th