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March 2019 C.E.T. and E.W.P. forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

7.3 to the 10th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.9 to the 3rd

Current low this month 7.3 to the 10th

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 6.3C +1.4C above normal. Rainfall at 58.6mm 92% of the monthly average.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Perhaps not quite the climb down I was expecting this week coming, thanks to much cloud cover which will prevent low mins, maxima will hold up in the 7-11 degree range over CET zone, high 6's by end of the week.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

7.2 to the 11th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.9 to the 3rd

Current low this month 7.2 to the 11th

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

I'll give a full update with the 12z this evening, but based on the 06z, we'd enter the final third of the month above 7.5C. This means a warm spell to cap the month off could easily see us threaten the 5 warmest Marches on record.

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
4 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

I'll give a full update with the 12z this evening, but based on the 06z, we'd enter the final third of the month above 7.5C. This means a warm spell to cap the month off could easily see us threaten the 5 warmest Marches on record.

Earlier in the month I noted in the Feb 19 CET thread that both Jan and Feb 2019 have ended up with identical mean figures with 1750. I also noticed that March 1750 had a CET of 8.2c, but thought at the time that the chances of this month getting anywhere close would be slim. Now I'm starting to wonder . 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 6.2C +1.3C above normal. Rainfall 60.7mm 95.3% of the monthly average.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

The Hadley EWP tracker was 53 mm after ten days, probably closer to 60 now. The trend looks not as wet but still enough to push the month close to if not past 100 mm.

On a conservative 95 mm estimate, I find that the annual top ten (with their March forecasts) will be ...

Mulzy (95), Reef (90), Thundery Wintry Showers (79), Born from the Void (84), seaside60 (78), Blast from the Past (55), weather-history (60), Midlands Ice Age (78), Feb91Blizzard (106), J10 (100). 

Anything higher than 95 mm would keep this same order as most of these forecasters went for 70-90 mm and those who went higher were way back in the annual race. Some like SteveB (89 mm, was 25th) will be moving well up into the top fifteen. However, both Feb91 Blizzard and J10 can move up as high as 7th and 8th if the outcome is wetter than 95 mm. Don can stay in the top ten if the outcome exceeds 110 mm (he is currently 8th, drops to 13th on 95 mm, but has a forecast of 135 mm so if the error is reduced or eliminated he can probably reach as high as about 4th). Daniel* is also in position to move up further (he would reach 11th) with a forecast of 112 mm. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 12z GFS
image.thumb.png.ccca1998a14693594ddd2c4f669c4c5e.png

The first graph is the forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low record values.
image.thumb.png.2263670cb3e43da1c0deb67a383387fc.pngimage.thumb.png.e3c0c42e32a3708f43e3733c163c2718.png  

Not as warm as the 06z, but still quite mild overall. A cool spell in the final third could take us close to the 81-10 average, while a warm spell could still give us one of the warmest Marches on record.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

7.2 to the 12th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.9 to the 3rd

Current low this month 7.2 to the 11th & 12th

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Certainly anyone who punted in the 7Cs is looking good right now. My 6.9C still just about in the game after corrections but at the cooler end of the envelope I imagine 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 6.1C +1.1C above normal. Rainfall 73.8mm 115.9% of the monthly average.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

7.1 to the 13th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.9 to the 3rd

Current low this month 7.1 to the 13th

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield still at 6.1C +1C above normal. Rainfall 87mm 136.6% of the monthly average. We should breach 100mm possibly by the end of Friday if not then by Saturday.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

7.3 to the 14th

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.9 to the 3rd

Current low this month 7.1 to the 13th

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up 6.3C +1.2C above normal. Rainfall 92mm 144.4% of average

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Hadley EWP tracker was 73 mm after 13 days, similar to The PIT's running total then, so I would imagine it has increased in similar fashion to around 90 mm by now. Looks to be headed well into the 120-140 mm range eventually although the trend is towards less prolific amounts. I have reset the provisional figure to Don's 135 mm and that gives us the following outcome for the annual scoring (it would not change much for higher values as only two forecasts exceed 135 mm and those annual scores are among the lower ones even adding full points for March). 

(estimated annual scoring for 135 mm March)

1. Mulzy __ 32.1

2. Reef ___32.0

3. Don ___ 31.7

4. TWS ___ 28.7

5t BFTV __ 28.4

5t seaside _28.4

7. BFTP __ 26.9

8.wx-history 26.6

9. Daniel*_ 26.4

10 Feb91b_ 25.6

... this order is pretty much locked in for March values 125 mm or higher with minor adjustments, as the forecasts are quite few and far between above 120 mm.

The top three for March at 135 mm would be Don, sleety and stewfox (the latter two also move up quite a few ranks as a result). 

__________________________________________

My current estimate for the March CET finish is 7.8 C. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

7.4 to the 15th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.9 to the 3rd

Current low this month 7.1 to the 13th

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

CET continues to hold at a higher level than I had anticipated - lack of cold minima the prime reason I feel thanks to cloud and rain. Next week will bring mild maxima but I suspect minima will be preety low balancing things out. Still a comfortable finish above the average now seems the form horse. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 6.4C +1.2C above normal. Rainfall 101mm 158.6% of average

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 6.5C +1.2C above normal. Rainfall at 108.8mm 170.8% of the monthly average.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

7.6 to the 16th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.9 to the 3rd

Current low this month 7.1 to the 13th

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

7.6 to the 16th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.9 to the 3rd

Current low this month 7.1 to the 13th

After thinking I may have gone too mild at the start my CET estimate of 7.7 may well be too cold. Looks like a very mild March!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
41 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

After thinking I may have gone too mild at the start my CET estimate of 7.7 may well be too cold. Looks like a very mild March!

These mild months are just relentless!  Not good if you ask me but to be expected. ☹️

Edited by Don
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