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March 2019 C.E.T. and E.W.P. forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

January was average.

Yes, but the last below average month was a year ago (compared to the 61-90 average).  Many months of the last 12 have been well above average.

 

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

7.5 to the 17th

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.9 to the 3rd

Current low this month 7.1 to the 13th

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
22 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

7.5 to the 17th

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.9 to the 3rd

Current low this month 7.1 to the 13th

Getting close to thinking about an 8C March now - I'm thinking we may get a warm final week

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
13 hours ago, Don said:

Yes, but the last below average month was a year ago (compared to the 61-90 average).  Many months of the last 12 have been well above average.

 

Exactly! There is no balance at all. It is either warm, mild or average at best.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
13 hours ago, Don said:

Yes, but the last below average month was a year ago (compared to the 61-90 average).  Many months of the last 12 have been well above average.

 

1999  2003 and 2014 all had 11 monthly CETs which were over the 1961 to 1990 average.  that's three in 15 years.

1945, 1949 and 1959, had the same....three in 14 years!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
9 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

1999  2003 and 2014 all had 11 monthly CETs which were over the 1961 to 1990 average.  that's three in 15 years.

1945, 1949 and 1959, had the same....three in 14 years!

 

When was the last time we had 11 monthly CETs below average?

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

If we consider average months within 0.5C of the 61-90 average, then either side of that above and below average, then only 3 years have had 10 or more months above average.

2014 had 11 months above and 1 below.
2004 had 10 months above and 2 average
1959 had 11 months above and 1 below.

The last year with at least 11 months below average was 1879, where every month was below.

Looking at the proportion of above, below and average months over the CET record, and using a 30 year average, we get the graph below.

image.thumb.png.7c10c2205cdb10d8fa26ee6ce328c2bb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
22 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

If we consider average months within 0.5C of the 61-90 average, then either side of that above and below average, then only 3 years have had 10 or more months above average.

2014 had 11 months above and 1 below.
2004 had 10 months above and 2 average
1959 had 11 months above and 1 below.

The last year with at least 11 months below average was 1879, where every month was below.

Looking at the proportion of above, below and average months over the CET record, and using a 30 year average, we get the graph below.

image.thumb.png.7c10c2205cdb10d8fa26ee6ce328c2bb.png

Thanks for the analysis. The trend since the 1980s is unmistakable!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 6.4C +1.1C above normal. Rainfall up to 109.2mm 171.4% of the monthly average. Not much in the way of rain for the next five days at least however the big change expected in the average temp as daily max's look close to values in late May or early June.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

7.4 to the 18th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.9 to the 3rd

Current low this month 7.1 to the 13th

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 6.3C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall at 109.4mm 171.7% of the monthly average.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Top sixteen March CET values (11th to 16th are tied) with the 14 cases for which we have daily data, comparing CET values after 18 days (this year 7.4 as per above post).

Rank ___ Year ___ Final CET ___ after 18 days

_ 01 ___ 1957 ___ 9.2 _____ 9.5

_ 02 ___ 1938 ___ 9.1 _____ 8.5

_ 03 ___ 2017 ___ 8.7 _____ 8.1

_ 04 ___ 1997 ___ 8.4 _____ 8.5

_t05 ___ 1948 ___ 8.3 _____ 8.0

_t05 ___ 1990 ___ 8.3 _____ 8.6

_t05 ___ 2012 ___ 8.3 _____ 7.2

_t08 ___ 1750 ___ 8.2 _____ n/a

_t08 ___ 1961 ___ 8.2 _____ 9.1

_10 ___ 1734 ___ 8.1 _____ n/a

_t11 ___ 1779 ___ 7.9 _____ 7.3

_t11 ___ 1780 ___ 7.9 _____ 7.5

_t11 ___ 1945 ___ 7.9 _____ 6.6

_t11 ___ 1981 ___ 7.9 _____ 7.2

_t11 ___ 1991 ___ 7.9 _____ 8.4

_t11 ___ 1998 ___ 7.9 _____ 7.2

_________________________________________________________________

Largest increases from 18th to 31st are mostly in colder months. These are the top five increases ...

1886 went up 3.9 (0.3 to 4.2)

1947 went up 2.8 (0.8 to 3.6)

1909 went up 2.7 (1.0 to 3.7)

1803 went up 2.6 (3.7 to 6.3)

1788 went up 2.5 (1.1 to 3.6)

1946 went up 2.5 (2.6 to 5.1)

___________________________________________________________________

As you can see, about half of the really warm Marches were already at or above their finishing values by now, and only 1945 made a real surge up from where the month was sitting. 

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

In addition to the above perspective on warmth from now to end of month, there have been only three cases where 20-31 March averaged 10 or higher. These were 

__ 1803 (10.2), 1936 (10.3) and 2012 (10.2) __

The 1936 case took a month at 5.3 on 20th to a finish of 7.1 C. So it missed being included in either of the filters above (very mild CETs at end of March, or largest increases), Eight of the twelve days had means of 10 or higher. (the filters above for increases applied to slightly longer intervals but this would not have changed this outcome).

Surprisingly, neither 1777 (8.0) nor 2017 (9.2) got past 10.0 or even 10th place for the last twelve days of the month despite producing record monthly maxima (1777 finally surpassed by 2017). 

The six years closest to the standard of the three 10+ finishing periods were 9.9 (1886 and 1938) and 9.8 (1945 and 2005) and 9.5 (1920) and 9.4 (1929). Then 10th place goes to 1815 and 1903 tied at 9.3 C. That makes 2017 the 12th warmest finishing interval. 

If this month (March 2019) averages 10.5 to break the existing record for 20th-31st, it will finish (provisionally) at around 8.6 C or 4th warmest. To become warmest March on record this interval will need to average 12 degrees. 

Meanwhile 2013 for this same interval averaged an astounding 1.2 degrees. This was the coldest on record (1.3 in 1837 was second coldest). 

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Recently, we seem to be going between famine and feast in terms of rainfall.

1st-24th Dec 2018: 114mm

25th Dec-14th Jan: 5mm

15th Jan-10th Feb: 90mm

11th-27th Feb: 6mm

28th Feb-18th Feb: 99mm

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

7.5 to the 19th

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.9 to the 3rd

Current low this month 7.1 to the 13th

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up 6.4C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

7.6 to the 20th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.9 to the 3rd

Current low this month 7.1 to the 13th

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up 6.7C +1.2C above normal. Rainfall at 109.4mm 171.7% of the monthly average.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 12z GFS

image.thumb.png.7d6d47c302723e8061eb83341c4a4f8c.png

The first graph is the forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low record values.

image.thumb.png.6732a0b1e94d73ba950101c4c7684e5e.png   image.thumb.png.06d48d0b71309c100d2fd6ec2eccc0aa.png  

Mild currently, trending down close to average for a day or 2 before finishing the month on a mild note. A finish of anything up to 4th warmest (8.4C) on record (before corrections) is possible at this stage.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

EWP has stopped its steady climb at around 95 mm (allowing small amounts for yesterday) and model forecasts add only 1-2 mm until near end of month when there could be a heavier amount but so close to end of month that timing uncertainty affects the probability as well as whether that rainfall materializes eventually or not. 

I have scaled back the estimate to 115.8 mm (just an arbitrary number that rules out ties on either side of the outcome) and it doesn't change the picture very much from the earlier 135 mm estimate, Don still makes a respectable climb up the table and everyone else gets almost the same points as the earlier calculation with so few forecasts between 115 and 135 (and most of those being lower scoring entries going into March). So this provisional table attached is where things would stand if the outcome was actually 115.8 mm. I will fine tune this at the end of the month. We have a tie at the top of the annual table (Mulzy and Reef) with Thundery Wintry Showers just ahead of Don in this revision. 

March has the lowest of the twelve monthly 3rd to 6th highest EWP values (1766 to 2018) although not the lowest maximum or second ranked value (Feb, Apr and May are all lower in the first two ranks and April becomes lower than March from 7th on down). March then overtakes April again at 122nd wettest (around 59 mm) and stays slightly drier rank for rank for a few dozen entries before April resumes the lead, but the two months continue to trade places all the way down to the driest month (April more often in the lead than March, but March does claim lowest values for 30th-33rd driest) when finally some months other than March or April have the lowest values (Jan, Feb and June are all drier than March and April). 

That introduces the perhaps surprising fact that at 115.8 mm this would be the 10th wettest March (currently 2018 at 115.2 mm is). This would be the first time that two consecutive Marches have broken 100 mm since four in a row (1979 to 1982), the only other occasion being three on the run from 1912 to 1914. The value that needs to be exceeded in 2019 for a new lower value of consecutive wet Marches is 106.8 mm (1913) for either 1912-13 or 1913-14 (1912 and 1914 were similar to 2018 with 118.4 mm and 119.7 mm). In the more recent set, 1980 and 1982 were both just over 100 mm. 1979 was 127 mm and 1981 was second wettest 160.4 mm.  

EWP20182019d.xlsx

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

7.8 to the 21st

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average
1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.9 to the 3rd

Current low this month 7.1 to the 13th

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
On 19/02/2019 at 14:18, Weather-history said:

I can't remember if I made a guess this early before.  Very mild Februarys don't favour a cold March to follow. In recent times, only in 1995 was followed by a March that wasn't mild overall.

+6.0 February and the following March since 1900

2017  6.1 8.7

2014  6.2 7.6

2011  6.4  6.7

2002  7.0 7.6

2000  6.3 7.6

1998  7.3 7.9

1997  6.7 8.4

1995  6.5 5.6

1990  7.3 8.3

1961  6.9 8.2

1945  7.1 7.9

1943 6.1  6.5

1926 6.8  6.3

1920 6.0  7.2

1918 6.5  5.7

1914 6.8 6.1

1903 7.1 7.1

-------------------------------------

I'm going for March 7.8C and 60mm

It was never looking good a below average March after such a mild February 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 6.9C +1.3C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

7.9 to the 22nd

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average
1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.9 to the 3rd

Current low this month 7.1 to the 13th

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