Weather Warnings - How to improve the whole system

[richie3846]

It's pretty complex when you think about it. If we were to be literal, then coastal areas would have reds all the time for wind, and their meaning would become reduced. Mumbles weather station is a perfect example of this. They may record gusts of 75 to 80 in a yellow warning, but the site is exposed and the locals living on the hills facing the sea are no strangers to wind. Many gusts over a 100 have been recorded at this site. Similarly, rain. 100mm in Swindon would be worthy of a red warning yet 100mm at Mam's gaff atop a hill in Swansea may be amber or even yellow depending on dryness etc. 

These are two examples, warning systems are inherently flawed IMO and a human touch may be the best way to fine tune the warnings to suit, rather than being blanket numbers.

[SnowBear]

11 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

It's pretty complex when you think about it. If we were to be literal, then coastal areas would have reds all the time for wind, and their meaning would become reduced. Mumbles weather station is a perfect example of this. They may record gusts of 75 to 80 in a yellow warning, but the site is exposed and the locals living on the hills facing the sea are no strangers to wind. Many gusts over a 100 have been recorded at this site. Similarly, rain. 100mm in Swindon would be worthy of a red warning yet 100mm at Mam's gaff atop a hill in Swansea may be amber or even yellow depending on dryness etc. 

These are two examples, warning systems are inherently flawed IMO and a human touch may be the best way to fine tune the warnings to suit, rather than being blanket numbers.

I can give a personal account of that.

Yesterday was pretty unusual for here in Essex and a fair bit of damage about, but having lived in Cornwall too and right down in Newlyn, to me it was a proper good blow. 

I wouldn't have wanted to go for a long walk in it around here, but would go for a walk on the moors and headlands in Cornwall in a storm like that with no second thought. 

Some is down to what the locals are used to, when I lived in Cornwall if it was a force 7 or 8, yeah, all OK, breezy day, force 9, hmm better close the windows and get the washing in then. Force 10 or 11, light the fire, make a tea and feet up, soon be over and wait to hear the maroons to go up cos some blethy idiot didn't make for port before the storm hit. 

So, you issue me with a force 9 warning in Essex, I take note, same in Cornwall I'll just smile and carry on and enjoy Cornwall in all its glory. 

[SnowBear]

Interesting article in The Conversation on Eunice and perhaps even as we know the warning system still needs improvement, it's still come a long way since '87.

Storm Eunice: how forecasters predicted super-strong winds days before it even formed

THECONVERSATION.COM

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Scientists have unimaginably more powerful supercomputers than their predecessors.

 

Edited February 20, 2022 by SnowBear
Sanity check and post tidy

[SnowBear]

Having watched over the past few days and how the warning system works, I personally don't think there is a solution. The weather in the UK is inherently complex in severe weather scenarios and the variations can be quite large even at small distances. Additonally as a storm tracks in a shift of even 50 miles can make a lot of difference. 

Certainly doesn't help having two warning systems (how likely/impact) running side by side with the same warning colours though. 

 

[Methuselah]

IMO hoping for a perfect warning system is like looking for a herd of unicorns; it's a chimaera and will never exist in reality. The future invention of a mathematical calculus that can abstract unlimited order from chaos notwithstanding, that is!