Model discussion - March drawing to a close

[Paul]

This year if flying by! March is set to draw to a settled close, the start of April looks less straight forward though, so plenty to be keeping an eye on in in the models. 

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Alternative Threads
To chat more generally about the Spring weather, please head over to the spring thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91223-spring-2019-moans-ramps-chat-etc/

And for the Met Office outlooks, there's this thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/

Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
GFS
GFS FV3 (Para)
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR (3km)
NetWx-MR (9km)
Met-Office
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Model Comparison
Global Jet Stream
Stratosphere

[knocker]

The EPS 5-10 mean anomaly is certainly not adverse to the indications in the latter part of the det run so portending more unsettled with temps below average. And in the ext period a continuation of trough influence over the UK with some ridging in eastern Europe thus temps remaining below average. There is not a lot of continuity at the moment so caution id advisable vis ant ext outlook

[Frosty.]

Holy cow, 510 dam in early April on Gfs 00z operational and a snow fest..I kid you not!!❄️..anyweather..take a bow..hold on though, it hasn't happened yet!!

[Methuselah]

Not sure I like the way this might be going; but, hey, it is what it is:

   

[Frosty.]

Perhaps it shouldn't come as a surprise that the 6z has ditched the screaming Northerly that the 00z showed and shunted it much further east with high pressure instead..par for the course coldies isn't it?

Ends chilly though,  great synoptically but wrong season dammit!!

[Methuselah]

20 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Perhaps it shouldn't come as a surprise that the 6z has ditched the screaming Northerly that the 00z showed and shunted it much further east with high pressure instead..par for the course coldies isn't it?

True, Karl...but still rather unpleasant, at the tail end?

   

GEFS 00Z ensemble nothing special: 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Well we do get a source of arctic air coming down as the uppers show, beyond that high pressure on the 6z tends to push it all further East, but even beyond day 7 cold air is never far away! At this stage I'm failing to see the much more unsettled conditions some weather organisations are calling! And even beyond day 10 we appear to be pulling in a NEtly with high pressure to the West and low to the SE. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Strooth, I nearly fell out me rocking chair when I viewed the final stages of the para... Deep in fi I know, but my god it has know interest in spring at all... It just goes colder!!!! 

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Strooth, I nearly fell out me rocking chair when I viewed the final stages of the para... Deep in fi I know, but my god it has know interest in spring at all... It just goes colder!!!! 

Please God, not another of those late April 1981 scenarios!! Thank goodness it's only the Para!

1981:    

A few nippy ensemble members too: 

[Frosty.]

Impressive stuff for april on the Gfs 00z operational and now the 6z parallel, it's shameful we can't get charts like that to verify in winter, truly pathetic our climate!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Impressive stuff for april on the Gfs 00z operational and now the 6z parallel, it's shameful we can't get charts like that to verify in winter, truly pathetic our climate!

Sooner or later Karl it will!! One positive way of looking at is.... Now we have the para we will get to see charts like this 12 months of the year!!

Edit... Take a look at Greenland and how it shows southern areas warming up at the same time!! Could it be one final hoorahh to us sad coldie hunters! The train has never arrived until you can see the train.... Surely we can see the train by now! Or its taking one hell of a detour.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Something for everyone looking at the ensembles, and tbh their are quite a few cold scenarios amongst the 20 runs! 

[Frosty.]

Looking through the GEFS 6z there's some interest in terms of flirting with arctic air and also something much warmer from the south..oh and everything inbetween!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Looking through the GEFS 6z there's some interest in terms of flirting with arctic air and also something much warmer from the south..oh and everything inbetween!

Yes Karl I think most on here would take p6. I'm quite liking the look of p7 though!

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes Karl I think most on here would take p6. I'm quite liking the look of p7 though!

Can't believe I missed P7..and P11..I blame model fatigue..and both of these show snow!❄️..I really need to improve don't i

[MATTWOLVES 3]

9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Can't believe I missed P7..and P11..I blame model fatigue..and both of these show snow!❄️..I really need to improve don't i

It comes to us all Karl, it's to be expected... You can be forgiven, being as you've been hunting for nigh on 5 months! Surely we can just get that one short sharp shock! Several days of very cold uppers and widespread snowfall. Let's face it at the end of Feb we managed 20c, best part of 13-14c above average. Surely we can get a roll reversal just for a few days! The cold air is still in supply, but time fast running out! I think we have a window of 10 days to get something in, and that's your lot!

[Frosty.]

It's interesting to note that the warmest day this week on the Gfs 12z operational isn't friday..it's now saturday when 19 to possibly 20c could be squeezed out across parts of the s / se..  but by sunday it's much cooler or indeed colder across the board.

[Methuselah]

Oh Mr GFS, you are awful: 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Here she comes.... Well hello my Nthly! 

[Methuselah]

Oh dear. Oh dear. Oh dear!   

                                                           

                                                             

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh dear. Oh dear. Oh dear!  

Tell you what Pete, the 12z is a cold run... Waiting for GFSP to run now, now let's see what the ECM brings! Could be a late shock me thinks

[Quicksilver1989]

Lol, if the GFS  verified the CET for the first 10 days of April would be around 4.0C... maybe winter has a sting in its tail although the main northerly is still ~216 hours away.

Cold weekend coming up as well but pretty settled with night time minima being cold but some rather pleasant days where the sun pops out and winds are light.

Edit: The GFS parallel is more sluggish to bring in colder uppers next weekend and is more variable then the OP, which I can imagine is right at the bottom of the ensemble pack!

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Waiting for GFSP to run now

The parallel also shows a cold shot from the north but not as cold as the operational.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

Lol, if the GFS  verified the CET for the first 10 days of April would be around 4.0C... maybe winter has a sting in its tail although the northerly is still ~240 hours away.

Cold weekend coming up as well but pretty settled with night time minima being cold but some rather pleasant days where the sun pops out and winds are light.

Do I detect a little bit of Interest QS?? I think you have a little feeling in the water we could be getting a late blast!! Like you say gfs been getting it wrong at day 10 all winter! But perhaps now, when most have given up hope, it will finally deliver! 

[Quicksilver1989]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Do I detect a little bit of Interest QS?? I think you have a little feeling in the water we could be getting a late blast!! Like you say gfs been getting it wrong at day 10 all winter! But perhaps now, when most have given up hope, it will finally deliver! 

I think it's difficult to call as a lot depends on what happens with that high to our WNW this coming weekend. The OP has bit of support but the ensembles are very scattered.