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Model discussion - March drawing to a close

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
20 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Tell you what Pete, the 12z is a cold run... Waiting for GFSP to run now, now let's see what the ECM brings! Could be a late shock me thinks

I'm inclined to agree, Matt...Brass Monkeys looks like the form horse...

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

We've had 2 cracking Arctic shots on the Gfs so far today..00z and now the 12z and it's not really in the very depths of FI either, it's next week we are talking about and even today's update from exeter again mentions potential for colder interludes so a strong Pm / Am blast or two would be entirely possible given the fluidity of the upstream pattern beyond our anticyclonic spell.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

The GFSP is running slowly, that slow the ECM would have rolled out by the time its finished! Anyhow here is the FV3 take on that Nthly. 

gfs-0-204 (1).png

gfs-1-210 (1).png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Paranormal's not three bad, for inland convective potential: Thundersnow?

image.thumb.png.d8c0c7262b84e6e6c1b22cad24e2494e.pngimage.thumb.png.53936595e684931ee79fd436175cf92d.png  

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The GEFS 12z adds some support to the operational / parallel arctic plunge next week.

0_216_850tmp.png

4_216_850tmp.png

11_222_850tmp.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

And the Para looks positively tumescent: image.thumb.png.d82982c0e6633a45e466914c55de8ed9.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And the Para looks positively tumescent: image.thumb.png.d82982c0e6633a45e466914c55de8ed9.png

Indeed:shok:

ooh-matron-kenneth-williams-carry-on-bouvier-des-flandres-puppies-for-sale-uk.jpg

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Here's a little of the white stuff courtesy of gfs, surely won't be much....... Will it!!!!!! 

12_192_preciptype.png

12_198_preciptype.png

12_222_preciptype.png

e6a8f44101a790a8356222f0df1756670cd8621315df79e2e6758d423a3b0208.jpg

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Here's a little of the white stuff courtesy of gfs, surely won't be much....... Will it!!!!!! 

12_192_preciptype.png

12_198_preciptype.png

12_222_preciptype.png

e6a8f44101a790a8356222f0df1756670cd8621315df79e2e6758d423a3b0208.jpg

You believe that, you’ll believe anything!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
3 minutes ago, Don said:

You believe that, you’ll believe anything!

I believe there is a chance of either a polar / arctic maritime blast next week, if it's polar the risk of snow would be limited to northern hills but if it's arctic with -10 850's or lower, there will be snow around, not just in the north and on hills.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
6 minutes ago, Don said:

You believe that, you’ll believe anything!

What Don.... The snow, or the lack of bread and milk!  

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Still some interest from ECM beyond 7 days! I think most of the models latching on to some kind of cold plunge.... For how long, and how intense is subject to uncertainty. 

ECM1-192.gif

ECM1-216.gif

ECM1-240.gif

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

What Don.... The snow, or the lack of bread and milk!  

If the gfs is right about next week we will have to don the gloves, scarf and woolly hats:cold:

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

What Don.... The snow, or the lack of bread and milk!  

You know me.  I say bring it on but I suspect the models are acting the fool again!

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, Don said:

You know me.  I say bring it on but I suspect the models are acting the fool again!

Both gfs and ECM showing some kind of cold shot, the FV3 is still showing an Easterly deep in fi, I would say there is a chance.... Thing is we have been saying that since December! Personally I think a few folk are gonna end up surprised, on the other hand I maybe talking crap again!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Both gfs and ECM showing some kind of cold shot, the FV3 is still showing an Easterly deep in fi, I would say there is a chance.... Thing is we have been saying that since December! Personally I think a few folk are gonna end up surprised, on the other hand I maybe talking crap again!

Well you and others are only describing what the models are showing..so it's not crap, the outcome may be crap though..as usual!

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well you and others are only describing what the models are showing..so it's not crap, the outcome may be crap though..as usual!

Yeh, that's what I meant Karl, you put it better though.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

...on the other hand I maybe talking crap again!

Welcome to the club, Matt!:oldgood:

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

We have some snow row activity at least, and although we have a fair amount of scatter, there is a fair few runs going very cold for this time of year. 

gefsens850liverpool0.png

gefsens850birmingham0.png

gefsens850norwich0.png

gefsens850london0.png

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

think april will be colder than february or March,watch this space..

 

Plenty of very cold air up in the arctic regions as mattWolves pointed out yesterday,time still to see snow ⛸⛄️❄️

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Indeed there is some snow activity, not just on the operational / parallel❄️

snow_126_ps_slp.png

snow_222_ps_slp.png

snow_294_ps_slp.png

snow_360_ps_slp.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
8 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

think april will be colder than february or March,watch this space..

I hope so sleety, we wouldn't need much of an effort to beat Feb or March would we.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
Just now, Mattwolves said:

I hope so sleety, we wouldn't need much of an effort to beat Feb or March would we.

Or Dec and Jan for that matter..

Anyway..looking at the latest models, certainly the gfs / gefs there's potential for a cold snap, maybe even reloading cold shots during the first 2 weeks of april..on the other hand, it may just be bog standard changeable / unsettled beyond this nice anticyclonic week.

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E17boy Seasoned

E17boy

Posted
Posted

Good evening peeps

Hey how is everyone? Hope you all are well, have not posted for some time, but I still like to come here now and again and catch up.

Well it's been a nice day in Walthamstow lots of spring sunshine and I have seen quite a few queen bumble bees flying around, so yes spring definately is in the air. Looks like temperatures are going to be picking up as we go through the week more specially here in the south thanks to high pressure. 

Next week has caught my interest could we have one last taste of winter ❄️ still to say goodbye to. If we do get a very decent northerly I am sure even the south could catch a wintry surprise. Anyway I will make this short and sweet, hope you all have a lovely evening and speak soon.

Take care and stay safe all

kind regards

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
6 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Good evening peeps . 

Next week has caught my interest could we have one last taste of winter ❄️ still to say goodbye to. If we do get a very decent northerly I am sure even the south could catch a wintry surprise. Anyway I will make this short and sweet, hope you all have a lovely evening and speak soon.

Take care and stay safe all

kind regards

Don't go E17 boy.... Won't you stay now.... Stay another day!! Sorry, had to say that... Always a pleasure to hear from you young man, hopefully a wintry surprise in store for you soon.

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