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Arctic Sea Ice - The Melting Season 2019


Singularity

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Extent is now 2nd lowest but the drops are still rather steady despite bit more in the way of favourable weather conditions. Either way the trends for the medium term are starting to look a bit more ominus with a ridge heading into the Beaufort which develops into yet another large high pressure cell. One to watch because it looks like the Greenland high is coming back with a vengeance so not promising signs for the crysoshere. 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

npsh500.144.png npsh500.240.png


I think ECM's actually got the right idea in keeping the blocking highs from making it back to Greenland; the strong westerly wind burst across the C. Pacific should kick the El Nino base state back into gear which promotes a mean trough position somewhere between W and NW of the UK, occasionally dipping further S (leading to thundery plume potential for the UK & W. Europe).

Hopefully I'm near the mark on this, as another round of Greenland blocking would be tragic for both the Arctic and the UK's weather prospects.


Even if we avoid that, though, the final warming has been so unusually strong that the blocking across the Arctic Ocean looks very slow to decline, and we're now reaching far enough into the year that the sun shining down through high pressure becomes capable of driving widespread top-down melting.

If a lot of melt ponds develop in the next fortnight, that'll be a big preconditioning factor for overall melt that's been mercifully absent for a number of years now.


Each time the Nino surges back, I find some cheer regardless, as coupled with a +QBO there is then a good basis for expecting a +AO pattern to become dominant within the next 6 weeks (and potentially by early June!). This should provide some welcome relief, unless the ice has experienced so much surface melt that, having already been so thin and fractured, it experiences mechanical destruction by even weak LP systems. There's a nightmare scenario that does not bear thinking about.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Well the Beaufort high is now look like it will develop into quite a large one at 1040MB and the forecasts are looking more severe in respect of instead of the high migrating towards the pole which may allow troughing to develop, it now looks like it will stick around more or less the same area with southerlies as a result and the Beaufort Gyre in full force. All this likely to mean if it comes off is the Beaufort could have alot of open water in 7 days time, the wind flow looks perfect for this to happen. 

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I'm still not able to call time on the 'Perfect Melt Storm Synoptic ' yet this year? With forecasts looking to rob me of the opportunity again!

I have to wonder if the P.M.S.S is now altered to include large Arctic storms ( like the 'Great Arctic Cyclone' in 2012?) in August/Sept as a final 'coup de grace' for remaining ice?

Anyone care to chill me ( and the basin ) pease?

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Far from a done deal with the AO trend in June; there’s a risk that the downwelling proves too strong for more than just a bit of mitigation of the high heights, in which case I think something akin to a ‘perfect melt storm’ would unfold except that vigorous LPs could arrive in July to severely impact already Aug-like ice.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Well I'm not holding my breath for a perfect melt storm for sure Singularity but I worry the damage do to the pack , and the ocean ,at high lats over this past 5 years or so?

I think some will have missed the denaturing of the ice there due to unrepresentative measuring of ice cover ( area/extent) with an algorithm invented to catch the ins and outs ( wiggly bits) of the ice edge.

If we had a measure of 80% cover = full cover of that grid I'm pretty convinced we would have seen year on year drops beyond 80N instead of this apparent 'stasis' there?

This has been occuring over 'average' melt/export summers so the first aggressive melt season we run into ( or is the basin so 'changed' they don't come around any more ?) will be carnage leaving the extent/area adherents wondering what the hell happened.

Again we see the Pacification of the Bering/Beaufort side of the basin messing with ice cover and our side has been empty all winter so Atlantic ingress has not stopped.

This early loss of ice leads to warming of the incoming waters to add to the salinity they already introduce ending up with hostile waters inside the basin heading ever poleward.

pinning down the first blue ocean event is pure guesswork esp. this end of melt season but we can be sure every year we see our plkanet warming means another year closer to that event.

With CO2 now over 415ppm Humans have never lived on the planet with so many GHG's in the mix but we all know what GHG's do to the atmosphere even if we have not been around before to see the impacts.

If we do not act I suggest folk sit on a chair, put their heads between their knees and kiss their ass goodbye!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
23 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I'm still not able to call time on the 'Perfect Melt Storm Synoptic ' yet this year? With forecasts looking to rob me of the opportunity again!

I have to wonder if the P.M.S.S is now altered to include large Arctic storms ( like the 'Great Arctic Cyclone' in 2012?) in August/Sept as a final 'coup de grace' for remaining ice?

Anyone care to chill me ( and the basin ) pease?

Really? I think your perfect melt storm is coming into fruition as increasingly warm air enters the basin via the Beaufort sea. The ice in the Beaufort is going to take a beating and will be a lot of movement also leaving a large area of open water in that area. This pattern looks very persistent and there is really no signs of this pattern breaking down.

Only consolation will be the Laptev bite should not develop too much at this moment in time.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

The similarity with the average of the three biggest extent loss years since 2007 is striking, and here I've elaborated on the likely consequences.

Of course I can only say 'likely' due to the usual caveat; patterns could flip in June for all anyone really knows, though the extreme stratospheric warmth suggests this has a much lower chance of happening than it usually would.

It's alarming how the model runs keep correcting upward the blocking strength and persistence as it moves into the mid-range.

On a side note, it's interesting that even as the blocking shifts back toward or across Greenland, it's not necessarily looking like we in the UK will have to contend with being sat under a stationary trough; the high pressure looks so expansive that the troughs could well be focused S or SE of us. That really hammers home the extremity of the blocking pattern.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

When we discovered the return period for 'The Perfect Melt Storm Synoptic' (ten to twenty years) I do not believe we looked into what 'mechanism' drove the set up just that it did appear 'periodic' with the two prior to 07' respecting a ten year period?

Since 07' I have warned about the 'return' of T.P.M.S.S. but also wondered out loud if such can still exist with the changes to the polar trop/strat over the intervening period.

Now it looks like we will have our answer?

With insolation now reaching its strongest it is not the time for blue skies and 24  hr sun!

Next will be 'melt ponding' and whether such a fragmented pack can hold onto melt or if their small size means runoff and not pooling?

 

On the up side a record melt/permafrost eruptions will help Greta and XR highlight our real and present peril from a destabilising climate.......

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
20 hours ago, Singularity said:

The similarity with the average of the three biggest extent loss years since 2007 is striking, and here I've elaborated on the likely consequences.

Of course I can only say 'likely' due to the usual caveat; patterns could flip in June for all anyone really knows, though the extreme stratospheric warmth suggests this has a much lower chance of happening than it usually would.

It's alarming how the model runs keep correcting upward the blocking strength and persistence as it moves into the mid-range.

On a side note, it's interesting that even as the blocking shifts back toward or across Greenland, it's not necessarily looking like we in the UK will have to contend with being sat under a stationary trough; the high pressure looks so expansive that the troughs could well be focused S or SE of us. That really hammers home the extremity of the blocking pattern.

The weather patterns reminds me of May 2011 with an strong warm high pressure cell affecting the Beaufort which sent a lot of WAA into the basin and the pattern was very persistent. In 2011, the ice was probably more resilient and the weather turned significantly colder at the end of the month which helped matters, not sure that will be the case this year. Also 2011 saw plenty of high pressure during June and especially July, dread to think what a repeat would do to this year's ice given what has happened already this melt season. 

Just looking at worldview just shows already what affect this high is having with the ice movement and the open water being left behind as a result, very likely during next week, we will be adding some heat to the mix but could this create sea fog and cloud and perhaps help the ice? 

Of course with the Alaskan side of the Arctic being warm, the Siberian side is colder but for how long. The models seem to suggest the cold trough will leave this region and head towards the pole and out into the Atlantic, not really what we want too see either. 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Good points @Geordiesnow regarding the 2011 similarities for weather patterns but not ice integrity.

2011 set the stage for 2012 via thinning of the ice. The huge meltwater output, freshening the near-surface Arctic Ocean, was probably a part of why the 2012 extent started so high Jan-Apr.

 

Since those two years the question has been what happens when the newly much weaker ice is subjected to a strong melt season weather-wise. Until this year all we’ve really seen at that level is Jul 2015 and May 2016. Both weren’t enough in isolation to being record lows in Sep, especially Jul 2015 as it followed a relatively ice-friendly spring, but they did damage to volume just as 2011 did.

On that basis, this year is likely to at the very least do great harm to the volume numbers, breaking a two year run of slight improvements (or one, depending on which data source you use; I recall seeing one example showing a drop for Mar 2019 compared to 2018).

 

Signs of LP moving from Siberia to the UK vicinity are indeed ominous on many levels. Hopefully the amount of movement is being overdone via modelling too few complications in the flow.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Extent still dropping steadily and at 2nd lowest. The ice in the Beaufort is getting hammered by winds and warm air with open water getting ever larger in size and we still got another 3 to 4 days of this ridging pattern which will keep on bringing strong winds and warm air from Alaska before perhaps at last this ridge will break down and lower pressure may take control although the words of too little too late comes to mind.

Quite mixed signals in the outlook it must be said although the trends do seem to suggest slightly more favourable conditions for the ice as more troughing tries to come into play but some runs do want to keep pressure high over the basin and its the Siberian coastline we may have to keep an eye on as strong southerly winds are forecast there so the fragile looking ice over to the east of Wrangel Island could perhaps develop quite a hole again although at this stage, not quite the size as it was in 2017. 

Looking at worldview, the ice does look pretty poor it must be said, no doubt any snowfall on the ice is rapidly melting and the ice does look rather fragile on the Pacfiic side of the basin, at this stage, the CAB could resemble more of 2016 than 2018 I feel just given what the basin has experienced so far this May and this melting season in general really. 

Wish i could be more positive but its hard at the moment yet on the other hand, there is some interest in that the ice looks like its getting pre conditioned for quite an exciting melting season for melting but the Arctic being the Arctic is not always as stright forward as it appears. 

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Well things could well get worse for the Arctic again because GFS is insisting on high pressure to established itself right across the basin whereas the ECM is wanting to get a trough to move in and stay across the central Arctic which makes a big difference. See which way this will go although giving what's happened so far, I suspect the GFS could be more accurate. 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Even the ECM solutions concern me because they maintain high pressure across the Bering and Beaufort, working away at the usual stronghold ice in the latter while piling heat into the ocean in the former, while the cool and cloudy weather is focused across the Atlantic margin ice that’s most under assault from oceanic import anyway.

The 12z is worse than the 00z in this regard as the HP stays stronger with less of a break induced by the LP from Svalbard -  not a good trend.

 

I sense a Pacific blocking, Atlantic margins LP pattern may be favoured as the weak El Niño battles on for another month or two (assuming it does, as tropical cycles suggest it will).

In which case, there could be big heat builds across W Europe that then transfer NE to move across the Arctic via N Asia. Something else to watch closely for signs of during the coming weeks.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Yup!! looking pretty dire with a big HP forecast over the pole by June as we enter the time of peak insolation?

The land also looks to take quite a bit of heat so will we see Yamal cast off its snow cover and set to work on those pesky 'Pingo like structures' over late June/July?

Should they be linked into the massive reserves of 'free methane' that Shakova/Semiletov believe underlies the permafrost then we are in big trouble!!!

I'd imagine any 'Methane Burp' would not instantly disperse around the globe but heat the atmosphere over the Arctic through August lengthening melt and bringing us the Blue Ocean event we dread.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Yep the Euro models have now come in line with the consistent GFS of high pressure becoming the dominant force after this small spell of slightly less high pressure dominating weather although I will say I would think it will be interesting if the ECM evolution came off as it be interesting how the Arctic will react with such a huge anti cyclone yet one that does not bring too much heat in from the landmasses. We always say high pressure is bad for ice and low pressure is good for ice but I am starting to think its the wind that could be more damaging to ice in the long term as we saw quite spectacularly in the Beaufort. 

The GFS has the high more nearer to the Beaufort sea which again will prompt the Beaufort gyre into action. 

These weather conditions are certainly giving the ice a good test on how well it reacts to it that is for sure

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
5 minutes ago, knocker said:

For want of a better place to put it

802820355_D7u8htDXoAAzc-5.jpglarge.thumb.jpg.d6ef91cc528b4fa463ba5cfafb0680e4.jpg

All doom and gloom for the world!

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Looks like the Beaufort is going to be the main talking point so far this year after the extreme Atlantification of last year. I mean if the ice edge towards Beaufort was a solid looking mass then perhaps no big deal but its not, its just a bunch of medium looking ice blocks which are just travelling northwards thanks to the winds. Quite extraordinary really and its not even June 1st yet.

To give a good indication how thin this ice is, any winds blowing off any islands in the Arctic(wrangel ESS islands etc) even for a few days is just creating large polynas. I expect this years extent to follow 2017 in the sence that pacific ice will be melting out quickly with Atlantic ice being nearer to average unlike last year where it was the opposite. 

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Hi G.S. , just been watching an animation over on the ASIF showing the pack since ice max up until June.

We may not be seeing warmth and melt over our side of the basin but the export ,via Fram, has taken a lot of our 'good ice'  into the N Atlantic where temps are warm enough to melt it?

The rotation of the pack , under the HP, if providing a constant feed of ice over to our side and though the ice edge may appear to have not retreated it is an illusion created by a constant stream of new ice once the ice from has drifted south to melt.

It is not looking good and if we continue with losses at the rate we have been seeing we will drop to lowest on record in the next 2 weeks?

Folk should remember that this is still the 'phoney war' with no great changes visible. This does not mean ice is not degrading and 'melt momentum' building?

The next 6 weeks of max solar input, if not clouded out, could signal a very poor season for the ice this melt season?

If it does produce open water and and warming then aug/sept may well see home grown L.P's roam the basin to throw around remaining floes in that warmed water?

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

That's always the catch really that more ice on the Atlantic side could well mean more export through fram unfortunately. 

I got a feeling we will be lowest on record soon just for the fact Beaufort is so low on ice that areas where melt is expected like Hudson Bay and Kara it just seems unlikely we will see any significant stall. 

Some uncertainty on the weather with that shallow vortex of cold air around Wrangel Island causing uncertainty in the models but some do predict a dipole could well form. 

Also to note according to Nevans graphs, May 2019 was the warmest on record across the basin with the exception of the Atlantic basin which tells you what sort of weather the Arctic has had since far this melting season! 

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Over on Neven's there is currently Slater's predictive ice cover projection out to the end of June and this shows 'santa's swimming pool' open and ready for swimmers by June 24th!

Open water in the central basin , esp. under HP circulation conditions , smacks ( to me) of very thin ice? The amount of peak solar energy getting onto the ice courtesy of the HP, looks to be putting paid to the sub thickness 1st year ice at a great rate of knots!

If so then we might expect a june cliff as both this failed ice and places like Baffin/Hudson join in on the melt fest?

I will wait until the end of june but if we still see no end to the 'perfect melt storm-esque' conditions the basin will be in big trouble and all the areas that have been finishing melt season with sparse ice cover that sits above 15% for that grid may , this year, drop below that 15% cover and blink out.

It will be fun to see the folk who pay no heed to my moans about the unrepresentative 15% or more definition of 'fully ice covered' up in arms about the numbers claiming no ice when they can see 10%  ice cover!!!"

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
35 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Over on Neven's there is currently Slater's predictive ice cover projection out to the end of June and this shows 'santa's swimming pool' open and ready for swimmers by June 24th!

Open water in the central basin , esp. under HP circulation conditions , smacks ( to me) of very thin ice? The amount of peak solar energy getting onto the ice courtesy of the HP, looks to be putting paid to the sub thickness 1st year ice at a great rate of knots!

If so then we might expect a june cliff as both this failed ice and places like Baffin/Hudson join in on the melt fest?

I will wait until the end of june but if we still see no end to the 'perfect melt storm-esque' conditions the basin will be in big trouble and all the areas that have been finishing melt season with sparse ice cover that sits above 15% for that grid may , this year, drop below that 15% cover and blink out.

It will be fun to see the folk who pay no heed to my moans about the unrepresentative 15% or more definition of 'fully ice covered' up in arms about the numbers claiming no ice when they can see 10%  ice cover!!!"

I got to admit GW, with respect I find your post as quite bizzare here. Just to let you know, I'm posting under the username of Paul on the ASIF and I replied about the slator model and how for intents and purposes the model is near useless to use as a guide to the melt season as with the owner passed away, it's not being used for what it intended for. The 'pole hole' is just the slator model picking up an area of slightly lower concentration on the NSIDC maps for today's date and because of that, the slator model will naturally predict that the probability of that ice being there will be lower. I can confidently predict there will be no hole near the pole by July 24th never mind June 24th!

What is more  concerning perhaps is the weather situation and how the models have been predicting a strong dipole and lots of heat potentially entering the ESS and Laptev regions, one to watch for sure. Todays runs has marginally toned it down somewhat with the shallow trough around Wrangel Island causing the models some headaches on what role it will play so interesting times for sure. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

From the weekend onwards, some very warm air looks set to hit Hudson and Baffin Bays, as well as the East Siberian and Laptev seas. Wouldn't be surprised to see several 100k+ daily losses which, given how low the extent and area figures are already, could well plunge 2019 back into record low territory.

Day 4
ECH100-96.GIF?05-12


Day 8

ECH100-192.GIF?05-12

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