Arctic Sea Ice - The Melting Season 2019

[Raindrops]

Well this is not good at all.

From Steffen M. Olsen‏ Twitter

Set out to recover #climate monitoring stations on #seaice, warm days, Inglefield Fjord #Greenland 13 Jun. Could not push through here, but made it before breakup days later. Back @DMIdk, huge thanks to the team; Ângît, Paulus, Aksel, @BG10BlueAction @ICEARCEU @SalienSeas #H2020

Video 

[Gray-Wolf]

I thought the 'diversion' index was maxed out too? (NSIDC 'concentration' plots?)

And then we have younger, thinner, warmer, ice of which the older ice types are riddled with old 'flaws/fractures' glued together with even weaker ice......

Less ice than ever measured, more broken apart than ever, in an ocean with sectors under full sun since may.......and all our 'good ice' sat on the Fram express........

The next 2 months may prove interesting......

 

[Methuselah]

12 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I thought the 'diversion' index was maxed out too? (NSIDC 'concentration' plots?)

And then we have younger, thinner, warmer, ice of which the older ice types are riddled with old 'flaws/fractures' glued together with even weaker ice......

Less ice than ever measured, more broken apart than ever, in an ocean with sectors under full sun since may.......and all our 'good ice' sat on the Fram express........

The next 2 months may prove interesting......

I've noticed another indicator that points to just how parlous the sea-ice-situation worldwide has now become, Ian: the lack of posts claiming that a 'recovery' is underway...?

Where are reports showing an isolated advancing glacier? Where are the graphs indicating 'upticks' in sea-ice, in either the Arctic or Antarctic? Who knows? Perhaps they've paused to reload their rhetorical materiel?

Though, personally, I prefer a more prosaic explanation: they've only just realised that they've been 'firing blanks', the whole time...?

[Geordiesnow]

15 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I thought the 'diversion' index was maxed out too? (NSIDC 'concentration' plots?)

And then we have younger, thinner, warmer, ice of which the older ice types are riddled with old 'flaws/fractures' glued together with even weaker ice......

Less ice than ever measured, more broken apart than ever, in an ocean with sectors under full sun since may.......and all our 'good ice' sat on the Fram express........

The next 2 months may prove interesting......

 

Low concentration can be caused by melt ponds and I believe most of the lower concentration over the CAB is down to melt ponds than holes in the ice pack. The question for me is what's more damaging long term, melt ponds or true divergence? We may find out by September. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Are we going to beat the 2012 death spiral season or not? by beat it, i mean is there going to be considerably less sea ice over the North pole by September, not just beating how much has melted? also what will the melt graph on Gav's video's look like by then?

[Gray-Wolf]

I think we all must be mindful when we transpose 2012 over today's pack/conditions?

The Pacification/Atlantification of the basin , since then, is just one pointer where we need take care and look at temp/salinity data for the areas being so impacted?

What point contentions about divergence/melt ponds is the ice is sat in the equivalent of an 'acid bath for ice'?

And, now export to Fram seems to be on a reprieve how thick is the ice backed up in the feed compared to that beyond 80N?

Is our thickest/most resilient ice, due for the flush whilst the thinner ,FY ice, now fends off the 80N melt season?

This is our first 'visual' test for the changes to the pack since 2012 so we will see what we will see but the folk discussing such changes have me thinking that the ice has been 'softening' toward more melt for equal energy input?

the next 3 weeks or so is 'peak loss' and end July/early Aug used to see slowdown in losses. Let's see how much ice is left, and the condition it is in, come late July?

[SMU]

Greenland melt so far this season...

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Greenland melt so far this season...

Could help with blocking in late Autumn if it continues.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Greenland melt so far this season...

Absolutely unprecedented. With the amount of strong high pressure and WAA up there so far, it’s hardly surprising. Nonetheless, that is a very worrying statistic. 

The rest of the arctic is melting at an alarming rate too. The ESS is taking a real hammering at the moment. The eastern Barents Sea and Laptev Sea are also seeing big meltouts. 

I do wonder about what implications this may have on winter. Will the “warm seas, cold continents” theory work? Will the more open/warmer water enhance or promote more blocking come December? We shall see. 

[Gray-Wolf]

Well Jaxa hit rock bottom for the 7th so I think that's all the NSIDC measures and now JAXA with ice a record low extent?

As noted ESS is a mess and Beaufort is melting out im ported C.A.B. ice at quite a rate, even the big floes can be seen collapsing and melting out as the early opened water become ever more hostile and the agglomeration that is our biggest floes sees the glue holding them together go and so leave them a collapsed mess of 'rotten ice' ( a hodge podge of older ice with FY keels welded on?)

As with previous years the ice is taking back seat in my mind to the energy being milked by the open waters and the role that energy will play in our autumn.early winter N.Hemisphere weathers.

The folk who used to chide me for asking folk to be mindful of the coming 'perfect melt storm' synoptic appear to be wholly absent from discussions this year?

The sad thing is No matter how many 'good/average years' we see one bad year and we are back where we started? This is why 'recovery' is not an option any more ( without major external forcings like eruptions/impacts?) and we are permanently 'dodging the bullet' with the next step down in ice volume that makes B.O.E. ever more realistic in the near time frame?

If B.O.E. occurs over an exceptional melt year we may see a 'recovery' of sorts ( no blue ocean for the year/s following) but if we run into one on just 'average conditions' then we are into the new planetary setup.

What do folk expect the first impacts from a B.O.E. will be on our hemisphere's trop/strat circulations?

Could we lose the 3 cell system overnight?

[Terminal Moraine]

2 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

If B.O.E. occurs over an exceptional melt year we may see a 'recovery' of sorts ( no blue ocean for the year/s following) but if we run into one on just 'average conditions' then we are into the new planetary setup.

What do folk expect the first impacts from a B.O.E. will be on our hemisphere's trop/strat circulations?

Could we lose the 3 cell system overnight?

Could you tell me what B.O.E stands for. Thanks.

[Flipflop]

TM.. Blue Ocean Event.

[BornFromTheVoid]

2 hours ago, Terminal Moraine said:

Could you tell me what B.O.E stands for. Thanks.

As Flipflop mentioned, it's a blue ocean event. Which is when extent drops below 1 million km2, which is considered essentially ice free.

[Gray-Wolf]

Sorry Guys! I should have made it plain what the B.O.E. was?

Mea Culpa!

[knocker]

 

Edited July 8, 2019 by knocker

[Don]

On 07/07/2019 at 17:54, Steve Murr said:

Greenland melt so far this season...

What a depressing future for the world......

Edited July 8, 2019 by Don

[Geordiesnow]

14 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

 

The folk who used to chide me for asking folk to be mindful of the coming 'perfect melt storm' synoptic appear to be wholly absent from discussions this year? 

I think whatever peoples opinions are, this melt season is showing that if we get a 2007 style melt again, the ice will just not survive it. This summer has been warm on the pacific side of the basin but the distribution of the highs and lows have been slightly different. Of course we must remember and not underestimated how bad May was, one of the warmest, very early melting/compacting in the Beaufort leaving lots of early open water which the ice has been drifting  back into in a very diffused state. That said it does help with SSTS somewhat which 2012 certainly did not have where the open water was masssive during that summer and SSTS were above average. 

I still cling onto the hope that because the ice pack this year is not in a divergence state(full of holes) we may avoid a record low but less than 4 million is certainly possible. 

[Gray-Wolf]

with 182,000 km2 blinking out yesterday alone ( on the back of 3 'century losses') we appear to have found the 'July Cliff'?

The ice going was roughly 2m thick at the start of melt season and there was a lot more of that ice in the basin this year.

I worry that I am about to find confirmation that the ice , since 2012, has not 'stood still' but has been moving toward a pack that sees more losses for the same amount of energy (smaller floes/thinning/warmer ice) . If so there's as lot more ice getting ready to leave us.

Coupled with that is the positioning of all our best ice over 'exits' needing only unfortunate wind fields to see it exported to melt out in Baffin/N.Atlantic/C.A.A.

If you are not already now is a good time to keep tabs on this melt season!!!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looking at the concentration images on the ADS site, the blinking out of so much ice, especially across Hudson Bay, Laptev and ESS, leaves me feeling a little suspicious about just how real it all is. I wouldn't be hugely surprised to see a reduced extent loss tomorrow as some of it blinks back into the picture.
Still, the recent multiple century drops, the high SSTs and the extra ice in Hudson, Barents and Kara that appear inevitable to melt is really upping the odds of 2019 being a true challenger to 2012. Can't see any sustained below average losses in the next week or so anyway.

[joggs]

Well,I hope the winter pattern ahead gives the arctic a chance to partly recover this damage.

Be interesting also to see what happens to to pattern change to late autumn/winter this brings us also.

[Gray-Wolf]

Sadly Joggs this is not what I think I've been seeing since at least 2014 with delayed refreeze and messed up strat leading to a loss in the number of 'Freezing Degree Days' whilst we see fragmentation events shatter older ice for it to be glued back together with late formed (first to melt out) ice whilst storms keep exporting older ice for late formed FY ice to replace it inside the high Arctic.

If we do see a very low finish then there will be areas that delay re-freeze due to the massive warming they have seen since May.

From now on our Hemispheres weathers will be interesting to watch with very little 'cold' left in the Hemisphere and already areas basking under high temps.....

I suppose this is why many of us follow the ice conditions knowing the impacts it brings to our weathers/climates?

Edited July 10, 2019 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

Actually, NSIDC daily extent just dropped quarter of a million km2 yesterday. Maybe the ADS losses are real

[Geordiesnow]

On 10/07/2019 at 11:51, Gray-Wolf said:

with 182,000 km2 blinking out yesterday alone ( on the back of 3 'century losses') we appear to have found the 'July Cliff'?

The ice going was roughly 2m thick at the start of melt season and there was a lot more of that ice in the basin this year.

I worry that I am about to find confirmation that the ice , since 2012, has not 'stood still' but has been moving toward a pack that sees more losses for the same amount of energy (smaller floes/thinning/warmer ice) . If so there's as lot more ice getting ready to leave us.

Coupled with that is the positioning of all our best ice over 'exits' needing only unfortunate wind fields to see it exported to melt out in Baffin/N.Atlantic/C.A.A.

If you are not already now is a good time to keep tabs on this melt season!!!

We certainly have hit a cliff, getting quite serious now actually especially the ESS area where the ice is sadly falling apart, still more extent than 2017(and 2007) so not unprecedented but concerning yet interesting times with the Pacific side of the basin melting quickly this year. 

The forecasts do look somewhat better for the ice but is it too little too late? If the low stays shallow and the cold air allows to build then we may see a slight cool down of the SSTS in the Chuckchi which are just extraordinary really. Refreeze could well be slow there yet again. 

[SMU]

On 08/07/2019 at 12:30, Gray-Wolf said:

Well Jaxa hit rock bottom for the 7th so I think that's all the NSIDC measures and now JAXA with ice a record low extent?

As noted ESS is a mess and Beaufort is melting out im ported C.A.B. ice at quite a rate, even the big floes can be seen collapsing and melting out as the early opened water become ever more hostile and the agglomeration that is our biggest floes sees the glue holding them together go and so leave them a collapsed mess of 'rotten ice' ( a hodge podge of older ice with FY keels welded on?)

As with previous years the ice is taking back seat in my mind to the energy being milked by the open waters and the role that energy will play in our autumn.early winter N.Hemisphere weathers.

The folk who used to chide me for asking folk to be mindful of the coming 'perfect melt storm' synoptic appear to be wholly absent from discussions this year?

The sad thing is No matter how many 'good/average years' we see one bad year and we are back where we started? This is why 'recovery' is not an option any more ( without major external forcings like eruptions/impacts?) and we are permanently 'dodging the bullet' with the next step down in ice volume that makes B.O.E. ever more realistic in the near time frame?

If B.O.E. occurs over an exceptional melt year we may see a 'recovery' of sorts ( no blue ocean for the year/s following) but if we run into one on just 'average conditions' then we are into the new planetary setup.

What do folk expect the first impacts from a B.O.E. will be on our hemisphere's trop/strat circulations?

Could we lose the 3 cell system overnight?

BOE would surely equate to more Late Autumn & Early Winter blocking with significant PV displacement ...

Less thermal gradient slowing the westerlies for all mid lattitudes. Across the globe that would make some areas a lot warmer in Autumn but also some pockets of anomalous cold...

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

BOE would surely equate to more Late Autumn & Early Winter blocking with significant PV displacement ...

Less thermal gradient slowing the westerlies for all mid lattitudes. Across the globe that would make some areas a lot warmer in Autumn but also some pockets of anomalous cold...

Let's just hope that any anomalous cold that effects us, does so at a time when it's useful, Steve? Anytime between late December and mid-February would do me fine!

I'm no fan of either delayed Springs or chilly, miserable Autumns...