May 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Badgers01]

Great very interesting- remember 2007 it was like a switch to a much cooler unsettled run of summers ... 

[Don]

28 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Great very interesting- remember 2007 it was like a switch to a much cooler unsettled run of summers ... 

It was indeed and after the scorching previous summer, warmest September on record, very mild winter and then the warmest April on record (at the time), I felt it quite relieving when summer 2007 was cooler and more unsettled.  Obviously bad those who suffered from the floods, though.

Edited May 2, 2019 by Don

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, Don said:

It was indeed and after the scorching previous summer, warmest September on record, very mild winter and then the warmest April on record (at the time), I felt it quite relieving when summer 2007 was cooler and more unsettled.  Obviously bad those who suffered from the floods, though.

2007 was depressing. And summers were dreadful until the hot summer of 2013. We had to wait 7 years for a good summer. 

[damianslaw]

Did last May deliver near recording breaking may day and whit bank holiday mondays... what a coincidence.

[Derecho]

Interesting to see that plenty of the coldest early bank holidays were actually pretty dry and some of the wettest (1997, 2004, 2015) were warmer.

The worst May bank holiday I can remember was the late bank holiday of 2007. Utterly awful, dull, very cool and in some areas very wet as well.

[Met.]

Won't count but I'll go for a below average 11.2°C for temperature.

Rain: 135%

Sun: 89%

 

[Weather-history]

EWP rainfall (mm) for Spring Bank Holiday

29th May 1967: 3.05
27th May 1968: 0.84
26th May 1969: 2.63
25th May 1970: 0.07
31st May 1971: 0.62
29th May 1972: 2.09
28th May 1973: 2.86
27th May 1974: 0.05
26th May 1975: 0.00
31st May 1976: 0.10
Silver Jubilee 1977
6th June 1977: 7.52
7th June 1977: 2.68
29th May 1978: 0.00
28th May 1979: 7.65
26th May 1980: 1.40
25th May 1981: 4.62
31st May 1982: 0.00
30th May 1983: 2.17
28th May 1984: 0.39
27th May 1985: 5.04
26th May 1986: 0.5
25th May 1987: 0.2
30th May 1988: 5.56
29th May 1989: 0.02
28th May 1990: 0.14
27th May 1991: 0.10
25th May 1992: 0.01
31st May 1993: 0.96
30th May 1994: 0.00
29th May 1995: 1.94
27th May 1996: 0.13
26th May 1997: 0.00
25th May 1998: 1.72
31st May 1999: 0.05
29th May 2000: 1.76
28th May 2001: 0.08
Golden Jubilee 2002
3rd June: 1.69
4th June: 0.77
26th May 2003: 0.60
31st May 2004: 6.97
30th May 2005: 1.09
29th May 2006: 1.95
28th May 2007: 5.06
26th May 2008: 12.40
25th May 2009: 5.16
31st May 2010: 3.81
30th May 2011: 3.38
Diamond Jubilee
4th June 2012: 0.74
5th June 2012: 7.56
27th May 2013: 5.54
26h May 2014: 4.89
25th May 2015: 0.00
30th May 2016: 3.40
29th May 2017: 2.94
28th May 2018: 0.62

[karyo]

14 hours ago, Don said:

It was indeed and after the scorching previous summer, warmest September on record, very mild winter and then the warmest April on record (at the time), I felt it quite relieving when summer 2007 was cooler and more unsettled.  Obviously bad those who suffered from the floods, though.

The combination of the summer floods in England with the record low Arctic ice has made summer 2007 very memorable. Here in Manchester it was very convective with plenty of thunder and near average temperatures.

[Roger J Smith]

17 hours ago, Thundershine said:

Won't count but I'll go for a below average 11.2°C for temperature.

Rain: 135%

Sun: 89%

 

You are not too late as the contest entries run until end of 3rd. I will list this one in the table, your rainfall 135% will be applied to the 1981-2010 normal value so it's going to be close to 86 mm. 

Edited May 3, 2019 by Roger J Smith

[Don]

7 hours ago, karyo said:

The combination of the summer floods in England with the record low Arctic ice has made summer 2007 very memorable. Here in Manchester it was very convective with plenty of thunder and near average temperatures.

At this rate, we could have record low sea ice this year!  

[Roger J Smith]

The CET is probably somewhere around 8.5 or 9.0 to this point. 

[feb1991blizzard]

11 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

The CET is probably somewhere around 8.5 or 9.0 to this point. 

This is damn serious for the future of this competition if this is a conscious decision to not release these figures to the public anymore Roger.

[ARTDEMOLE]

I emailed Met Office. Ellie a Weather Desk Advisor Met Office Exeter has passed it to the team and The site will be updated soon.

[damianslaw]

A notably cold start to May looks like verifying, nothing exceptional, but probably about to see the coldest running 14 day mean below average for quite some time..

Next week will see a very gradual warming in the south, however, the north will stay cold, very dissapointing.

May can be a very northerly or easterly type of month, a northerly will also be cold, and easterly can be warm or cold, so far it looks like delivering the colder variety.

Plenty of time to see a change in fortune. I remember back to 2012 which delivered a very poor cold first two thirds, the last third however was very warm and summerlike.. 

 

[Snowyowl9]

As cold as 1996 but looking at this site now is extremely difficult and not good for the eyesight.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

 

[Roger J Smith]

18 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This is damn serious for the future of this competition if this is a conscious decision to not release these figures to the public anymore Roger.

Somebody went on holiday, we were waiting almost ten days for CET some other month, not sure when but after Jan 2018 as I recall for the EWP, because it prompted me to change from Hadley to another set of EWP numbers, we had only just started into the EWP contest when that happened. Things will get back to normal perhaps later today. Since then I went back to the Hadley EWP (which is also late updating). 

Edited May 6, 2019 by Roger J Smith

[Weather-history]

11 hours ago, damianslaw said:

 

Plenty of time to see a change in fortune. I remember back to 2012 which delivered a very poor cold first two thirds, the last third however was very warm and summerlike.. 

 

Warmest May of the 20th Century, 1992, was only 9.8C by the 11th

[feb1991blizzard]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Warmest May of the 20th Century, 1992, was only 9.8C by the 11th

I remenber May 1992 being warm, perhaps because of the cold start though, i didn't know it that warm , all i remember was really the school holiday week down Edgbaston, a county championship match starting on the Saturday in which Warks were in trouble against Worcester but recoverd from 130-6 to 300, culminating in bowling worcester out on the Tuesday for circa 220 chasing 295 in ridiculous heat and sunburn, ran out of fluid and had no sun tan lotion on giving serious sunburn, this was punctuated by a Sunday league game against Lancashire which was abandoned due to ridiculous lightening and thunder, you could see it in the distance, didn't get the overs in after Warks posted a stonking score - 2pts each.

Edited May 6, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 8.6C -0.3C below average, Rainfall 11.6mm 20.1% of the normal monthly average.

[The PIT]

12 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

As cold as 1996 but looking at this site now is extremely difficult and not good for the eyesight.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

 

Perfectly readable and easy on the eye. Me thinks a visit and an eye check needed.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Looking like a wet Wed to Fri, will help those that went for a fair amount of rain in the guess.  Today could be interesting inasmuch could be the record low maxima beaten for Mayday BH

 

BFTP

[The PIT]

I'd be very surprised if any records are broken England. Most likely place I would say is Scotland.

[Weather26]

Interestingly it seems the record for the coolest May Day Bank Holiday (which currently stands at 14.5C in 1982) might well go today! What a total contrast to this time last year (when it was the warmest on record!) 

 

[Snowyowl9]

2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Perfectly readable and easy on the eye. Me thinks a visit and an eye check needed.

No its not easy reading you need to be superman to read that.

When it was all lined up very easily on here.

https://www.trevorharley.com/weather.html

 

 

[Duncan McAlister]

9 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

No its not easy reading you need to be superman to read that.

When it was all lined up very easily on here.

https://www.trevorharley.com/weather.html

 

 

Yes I miss that site