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May 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
15 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

As cold as 1996 but looking at this site now is extremely difficult and not good for the eyesight.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

 

SnowyO..

Not sure what Operating system  you are using.

I too used to be able to 'see' it OK,but on changing to 'Edge' it just shows at as stringed data with no data or field separation.

My solution is to use PF3 instead of clicking on the link. Then select 'Save as', when it will select a text reader and it formats it all correctly for you.

By the way you have shown the monthly file since 1659 and that does not include the current months numbers.

MIA

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
5 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

SnowyO..

Not sure what Operating system  you are using.

I too used to be able to 'see' it OK,but on changing to 'Edge' it just shows at as stringed data with no data or field separation.

My solution is to use PF3 instead of clicking on the link. Then select 'Save as', when it will select a text reader and it formats it all correctly for you.

By the way you have shown the monthly file since 1659 and that does not include the current months numbers.

MIA

 

 

That's exactly what I`m seeing no lists all jumbled...Pit with his typical reply above didn`t answer anything.

Thanks MIA.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

One whole week now without any updates yet for May.

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
22 minutes ago, snowray said:

One whole week now without any updates yet for May.

I emailed the MO asking for an update or explanation - they responded within an hour and said they are looking into it ! 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

I looked in at the EWP site and it has gremlins at work, the monthly total for April is actually listed now but the daily values listed are all 4.24 mm from 4th to 30th giving a much higher total than will eventually be confirmed, I believe. This makes me think somebody is now trying to update the files but perhaps not the usual person. But patience, it's just a question of that person returning from holiday time, I would suspect. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
4 hours ago, Badgers01 said:

I emailed the MO asking for an update or explanation - they responded within an hour and said they are looking into it ! 

Well done that man!:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

I looked in at the EWP site and it has gremlins at work, the monthly total for April is actually listed now but the daily values listed are all 4.24 mm from 4th to 30th giving a much higher total than will eventually be confirmed, I believe. This makes me think somebody is now trying to update the files but perhaps not the usual person. But patience, it's just a question of that person returning from holiday time, I would suspect. 

Guess they need training in excel and notepad++.

Anyways Sunny Sheffield down to 8.4C -0.6C below normal. Rainfall at 11.6mm 20.1% of the monthly average.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
On 06/05/2019 at 13:59, Midlands Ice Age said:

SnowyO..

Not sure what Operating system  you are using.

I too used to be able to 'see' it OK,but on changing to 'Edge' it just shows at as stringed data with no data or field separation.

My solution is to use PF3 instead of clicking on the link. Then select 'Save as', when it will select a text reader and it formats it all correctly for you.

By the way you have shown the monthly file since 1659 and that does not include the current months numbers.

MIA

 

 

The site is a mess in IE and Edge. Works fine in Chrome and Firefox, doesn't load in Opera.

Too be honest it's pretty rubbish that they can't be bothered to actually display the page properly across browsers or simply provide a link to a csv file.

So I owe Snowy an apology.  Sorry......

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Site has just updated, 8.8 to 6th, which is 1.1 below 61-90 normal value and 1.8 below 1981-2010 average to 6th.

Days this month listed as 11.9, 10.2,  8.5, 7.1, 6.9 and 8.1.

Cum CET therefore were 11.9, 11.1, 10.2, 9.4, 8.9 and 8.8.

all caught up now. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

8.8c to the 6th

1.1c below the 61 to 90 average

1.8 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 06z GFS

image.thumb.png.32ec2f386fa79b0476dadceebb05a838.png

The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low mean record values.

image.thumb.png.3359a742fecb56df304ec619c11c0e3d.pngimage.thumb.png.1914dbe8bde9f1d67f0a175ca9fc77be.png  

Provisionally the coolest first week of May (8.8C) since 2012 (8.2C). Things remaining relatively cool for the next week, but still mostly within 2C of average. After mid month, signs of a big warm up, but too far off to be reliable yet.

A few odd stats. For May 3rd, the mean of the last 10 years is 8.7C, which is 1.8C below the 81-10 average. 10 of the last 11 years have been cooler than average, 8 of those have been at least 1C below, 5 have been at least 2C below and 3 have been at least 3C below average.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

8.8c to the 7th

1.1c below the 61 to 90 average

1.9 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

8.8c to the 6th

1.1c below the 61 to 90 average

 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
26 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

8.8c to the 7th

1.1c below the 61 to 90 average

1.9 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

8.8c to the 6th

1.1c below the 61 to 90 average

 

That really is a cold start to the month. Going to need a pretty good heatwave at some point to even reach average. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield still at 8.4C -0.7C so not really massively cold. Today will knock it down despite the very mild start to the day as temps didn't move much during the day. Rainfall up to 12.8mm 22.2% of the monthly normal.

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
21 minutes ago, Weather26 said:

Wowsers! This is getting into May 1996 territory (and it's not getting any better before at least the weekend)! 

From memory May 2012 was a fair bit colder by this stage. Would bet that May 1996 was colder still.

Edited by Relativistic
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
1 hour ago, Relativistic said:

From memory May 2012 was a fair bit colder by this stage. Would bet that May 1996 was colder still.

For the  first 7 days of May
2018 = 8.8C
2012 = 8.2C
1996 = 7.1C

image.thumb.png.53f7a72c44440e29478fe25d07d962ad.png

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

We're currently on 7.4C (-2.8C) to the 8th.

Other years with mean temps the same or lower to the 8th:

7.4C: 1991
7.4C: 1983
7.4C: 1980
6.4C: 1996
5.6C: 1979

If we stay sub-8C by the 11th (looking quite likely), then there's only 1979 and 1996 that are colder.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

CET will struggle to rise much until Sunday, with further cool nights keeping it low. However, a major rise is forecast for next week, and we are likely to be somewhere much nearer the average by the end of next week. Longer term - signs the warmer spell may be exchanged for further cool weather again, but its a long way off - so the chance of a below average month is probably about evens at the moment based on current model output. CET zone incidentally won't be the warmest part of the UK next week thanks to an easterly flow, warmest temps will be reserved for sheltered western parts, and cloud could hold values down somewhat in southern and eastern parts.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

8.9c to the 8th

1.2c below the 61 to 90 average

1.8 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
13 hours ago, reef said:

We're currently on 7.4C (-2.8C) to the 8th.

Other years with mean temps the same or lower to the 8th:

7.4C: 1991
7.4C: 1983
7.4C: 1980
6.4C: 1996
5.6C: 1979

If we stay sub-8C by the 11th (looking quite likely), then there's only 1979 and 1996 that are colder.

Wow 1979 must have had a horrific start to the month!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Wow 1979 must have had a horrific start to the month!

It must have been a cracker!!   could have included some snow.

Definitely some snow involved there.

image.thumb.png.3e55ca313c53778f6f0d5a4b168b1a03.png

 

Didn't get much warmer either.

 

image.thumb.png.adb92d76756ad8a902e09015379f7d40.png

 

Until right at the end.

image.thumb.png.0befa887a9c6bd3f761aa1f4124f7058.png

 

That must have saved it from being a record breaker.

Not sure if its a good analogue for this month or not.

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
4 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Wow 1979 must have had a horrific start to the month!

Max / Min Temps here for the first week of May 1979:

1st: 6.9C / 1.3C
2nd: 8.1C / -1.6C
3rd: 7.1C / 1.1C
4th: 8.4C / -1.2C
5th: 9.5C / -0.1C
6th: 10.8C / 0.0C
7th: 11.6C / 4.7C

Mean Max: 8.9C
Mean Min: 0.6C
Average: 4.8C (-4.7C)

It soon changed though, it reached 24.5C on the 13th and 25.1C on the 14th!

Its worth noting that if the GFS 06z were to come to fruition, we'd be on 8.0C to the 23rd and a mean of 11.6C or below for the remaining 8 days would see us record the coldest May on record. We're still a long way from that though.
 

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