glasto Glastonbury festival 2023

[Paul]

Here's the latest from @Jo Farrow

Glastonbury 2022 update 2 - Balancing Act

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Showery rain and a cool airflow linked to a low pressure in the north or more settled, fair and quite warm weather from a high pressure in the Atlantic. Will one take hold?

 

[Nimbusman]

Thanks Paul and Jo! On a knife edge then. 12z operational goes for a trough again albeit more slack flow than 6z meaning a bit more slow moving areas of rain into Sunday particularly. Long way to go but on the up side the GFS control run suggesting the Azores High might have a bit more of an influence on this run with only a glancing blow from the low trundling down from the NW :

 

 

[Paul]

Here's the latest Glasto forecast update - looking good to start - trickier into the weekend with the risk of rain..

Glastonbury 2022 Forecast Update 3: Pack for all eventualities

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The latest forecast for Glastonbury - it's looking good for a fine, warm and sunny start but some potential complications may arrive into the weekend.

 

[Paul]

Here's the latest update by @Jo Farrow

Glastonbury Weather - A tale of two halves - Update 4

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One part of Glastonbury 2022 is looking dry, very warm and sunny. The other part will see showers and feel much cooler with more cloud and a breeze. Pack a sun hat and a woolly hat.

 

[Jo Farrow]

7 hours ago, Paul said:

Here's the latest update by @Jo Farrow

Glastonbury Weather - A tale of two halves - Update 4

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One part of Glastonbury 2022 is looking dry, very warm and sunny. The other part will see showers and feel much cooler with more cloud and a breeze. Pack a sun hat and a woolly hat.

 

No good news here for packing - two more sleeps for those with the tickets

[Jo Farrow]

Just finishing update 5, today looks glorious. Sunshine, heat and dry weather. Won't last

and as it has been quite dry, if there is a torrential downpour tomorrow there will be plenty of standing water and big puddles. Maybe they will miss 

Edited June 22, 2022 by Jo Farrow
added Glasto records

[Jo Farrow]

Update 5, a fabulous first day but risk of heavy, even thundery showers from the south tomorrow afternoon. Then mixed, fresher with strong sunny spells but a scattering of showers. #Glastonbury 

Glastonbury update 5: Glorious first day sunshine soon overtaken by showers

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What a start. Sunshine, heat and fine dry weather for Glastonbury. It won't last. The risk of heavy downpours on Thursday afternoon and then a fresher feel to end the week with scattered showers.

 

[J10]

The gates at Glastonbury open one month today, on Wednesday June 21 with the festival closing on Sunday June 25. Looking at the current models, the next 10 sees settled and dry conditions remaining very much in charge. Some initial signs of turning a little less settled for a spell thereafter at least according to GFS.

Met Office Longer Range Outlook - 5th to 19th June.

Spells of unsettled weather are possible in the south of England and Wales, with potentially thundery showers and more extended periods of rain. The northern half of the UK is more likely to see settled and dry conditions, with generally light winds inland and stronger sea breezes in coastal regions. Temperatures likely to stay above average for the time of year, though eastern coastal areas may feel cooler due to the stronger onshore winds.

However the chance of a dry settled spell lasting from now for a month always seemed pretty remote.

I will keep posting a bit in here this year, next update probably next weekend.

 

Edited May 21, 2023 by J10

[J10]

Looking at the GFS and ECMWF keeps the settled conditions until T+240. There are 1 or 2 signs of some brief incursions of low pressure at times to T+384 (14th June), current indications suggest these will be from the South or South West and be short lived with more settled conditions returning within 48 hours. Total rainfall amounts from GFS is negligible to T+240. After this far more variation with the 3 most recent runs suggesting 5-10mm of rain by T+384.

Met Office Thoughts

UK long range weather forecast
3-12 June Settled conditions are likely to dominate throughout this period with plenty of dry and bright weather across the country, the best of the sunny spells expected across the west. Some low cloud is likely in eastern areas early each day, but this will tend to burn back towards to the North Sea coastline during the day. By the end of the period, there is an outside chance of some occasionally thundery showers and slightly stronger winds reaching southern areas. Generally feeling warm by day, especially in the sheltered west. However, an onshore breeze from the North Sea means that it is likely to feel cooler in eastern areas, especially the southeast. Chilly under clear skies by night in the north and west, with some patchy fog possible in prone spots.
Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Mon 29 May 2023

13-27 June By the end of June, northern areas are most likely to see a continuation of mostly dry conditions and light winds, while showers and stronger winds are likely to become more prevalent in the south. In general, temperatures are likely to be above average but eastern coastal areas may continue to feel slightly cooler in the presence of onshore winds.
Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Mon 29 May 2023

Indicative Charts
1. Current Synoptic Pattern
2. T+144 GFS High Pressure still in charge but variation on a theme
3. T+240 GFS Low Pressure starting to edge in from the South West
4. T+240 ECM High Pressure edging North

[matty40s]

It is unfortunate how all the breakdowns of this cool but very dry period seem to be in the SW, can we move the festival to North Yorkshire please....

It looks like being hot and torrentially wet in short bursts if the range of model outcomes verify.

Oh well, shirts, shorts and wellies...might leave the mankini at home.

[J10]

Looking at the GFS and ECMWF keeps the settled conditions until T+96. Increased confidence of more unsettled weather spreading in from the South West. That though is where any confidence ends. There is a chance of more generally unsettled conditions to follow, but also a chance of remaining mostly settled but with occasional incursions from the South West.

T+120

Precipitation  Totals to T+384 (GFS)
Variation between 10-30mm for the Glastonbury area.

Met Office Thoughts

UK long range weather forecast
9-18 June To begin the period, settled conditions are likely to persist for many. However, it may become cloudier in the southwest, with the chance of some showers or thunderstorms here. It will likely remain cloudy at times along northern and eastern coasts, cloud occasionally moving inland, mainly overnight. Some moderate winds around coasts, especially in the southwest where they may become fresh to strong at times. Temperatures generally warm away from the east coast, locally very warm. Later in the period uncertainty increases, however there is a risk of showers or thunderstorms in southern areas of the UK, while northern areas are more likely to hold onto drier conditions. The easterly breeze may ease at times, allowing eastern counties to see a recovery in temperatures. Temperatures generally near to above average.
Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 4 June 2023

19 June - 3 July High pressure is likely to become less dominant with time, especially in the south with low pressure likely to approach from the near Continent. Northern areas may hang on to the largely dry conditions, but southern areas will see an increased risk of occasional heavy rain or thunderstorms from time to time. Any changes will be slow though, and there will still be plenty of dry and warm, sunny weather between any rain or thunderstorms, with temperatures widely above average, perhaps significantly so.
Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 4 June 2023

[jonf]

On site ground conditions report here: 

 

 

 

[J10]

Good to see dry conditions around Glastonbury, I will give an update later today, but here are the latest Met Office Thoughts.

UK long range weather forecast
16-25 June To begin the period, settled conditions are likely to persist for many. However, it may become cloudier in the southwest, with the chance of some showers or thunderstorms here. It will likely remain cloudy at times along northern and eastern coasts, cloud occasionally moving inland, mainly overnight. Some moderate winds around coasts, especially in the southwest where they may become fresh to strong at times. Temperatures generally warm away from the east coast, locally very warm. Later in the period uncertainty increases, however there is a risk of showers or thunderstorms in southern areas of the UK, while northern areas are more likely to hold onto drier conditions. The easterly breeze may ease at times, allowing eastern counties to see a recovery in temperatures. Temperatures generally near to above average.
Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 4 June 2023

[J10]

There remains the risk of showers or Thunderstorms for Glastonbury overnight and for much of tomorrow.

Thereafter looking dry settled and very warm for Tuesday through to Friday. In a similar way to this weekend slowly turning more unsettled from the South West.

Probably remaining mostly dry next weekend, with the risk of precipitation rising for the Glastonbury festival.

Chart 1 - GFS T+180.

Charts 2/3 - Ensemble Average GFS / ECM For Wed 21 June Midday

 

Despite this there is very large inter run for the duration of the festival, a big fingers crossed that todays GFS doesn't come off.

Edited June 11, 2023 by J10

[78/79]

Getting to work on Wednesday is going to be a bloody nightmare around here , the roads will be rammed.

[Wivenswold]

Doesn't look like a mudfest this year unless there is a very heavy shower on Saturday and it doesn't dry the ground before showers on Sunday. 

The set up reminds me of the 2005 festival. It was beautiful at the start then one early morning storm on the Friday as it was getting light.  I went for a walk around the site afterwards and the ground wasn't muddy. I'd just grabbed a bacon sarnie by the Pyramid stage when I noticed the second storm brewing and legged it back to my tent. Within 30 mins the whole markets area was under a foot of water and lower ends of two campsites were flooded.   

So, 1 storm good, 2 storms bad. 

[NEVES SCREAMER]

Who is on this year? I have lost touch with it all. I'm still living in the punk era !  Anarchy !

[matty40s]

20 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

Who is on this year? I have lost touch with it all. I'm still living in the punk era !  Anarchy !

Well, the Damned are on the other stage on Friday night, but we will have to miss the 2nd half of Arctic Monkeys to see them.

Also, Churnups on Friday, which could either be FooFighters or Pulp, depending on which rumour box you listen to. 

Guns n Roses Saturday night, Chemical Bros as well.

Sunday is Cat Steven's,  Blondie and the old queen himself Elton John in his last ever UK concert, along with several special guests no doubt.

[Scuba steve]

Not there this year so it can rain

[thestixx]

20 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

Who is on this year? I have lost touch with it all. I'm still living in the punk era !  Anarchy !

It's my 14th Glasto since 1995. My first since 2013... I'm looking forward to seeing

 

InBedBy9 

Too Old for this I need to control my language

Young Kuntz

How much?

Pills Thrills & Back Aches

etc etc 

[NEVES SCREAMER]

1 minute ago, matty40s said:

Well, the Damned are on the other stage on Friday night, but we will have to miss the 2nd half of Arctic Monkeys to see them.

Also, Churnups on Friday, which could either be FooFighters or Pulp, depending on which rumour box you listen to. 

Guns n Roses Saturday night, Chemical Bros as well.

Sunday is Cat Steven's,  Blondie and the old queen himself Elton John in his last ever UK concert, along with several special guests no doubt.

Oh ok. I've seen the Damned loads of times. True punk band! Enjoy! 

2 minutes ago, thestixx said:

It's my 14th Glasto since 1995. My first since 2013... I'm looking forward to seeing

 

InBedBy9 

Too Old for this I need to control my language

Young Kuntz

How much?

Pills Thrills & Back Aches

etc etc 

Cheers! I'll do some research in to that lot!  Enjoy ! 

[J10]

Here are the latest Met Office Thoughts.

UK long range weather forecast

19-28 June Outbreaks of rain or showers, heavy and thundery at times, are likely to spread across many areas of the UK early next week. The far northwest may remain drier at first but with some patchy low cloud here. Through the week, showers, some heavy and thundery, are likely to continue, though brighter or sunnier interludes are also expected, along with a brisk breeze at times. Temperatures remaining warm or very warm and rather humid for many. Beyond next week and towards the end of June, there may be a return to slightly more settled conditions. This would mean reduced rainfall amounts for many, although perhaps with the northwest seeing more rainfall at times. Temperatures are likely to remain above average.

 

It seems likely that the current dry and settled spell will slowly end over the weekend with showers or longer spells of rain developing by early next week.

Currently remaining unsettled with further rain or showers for the gate opening day on Wednesday. Better news hinted at for the start of the Music starting with hints of pressure building from the South West. While some showers cannot be totally ruled out, organised areas of rain become much less likely.

Rainfall totals in the runup to the festival are very uncertain, with over an inch of rain possible by next Wednesday according to some GFS runs. Temperatures look set to be low to mid 20s most days.

Charts

Ensemble Average (L-R) GEFS T+168, ECM T+168, GEFS T+216, ECM T+216 (All runs 12Hz today)

Accumulated Rainfall GFS 18Hz run today until 6am Wednesday.

Edited June 14, 2023 by J10

[matty40s]

Its looking good for the start of the moosic.....

☆shall I leave wellies at home....☆

[sunny_vale]

I'm heading down tomorrow! Looks good for set up. First day of work on Sunday might be somewhat refreshing, but mixed to good thereafter. Absolutely baked last year until the festival itself which was dry but fresh. Looking forward to a few acts this year but the majority I can actually see out of working hours will be casual viewing - which tends to pleasantly surprise me!

[J10]

As we approach the Glastonbury festival for 2023 the patterns are now starting to become more concrete.

Some rain is expected to advance from the South West tonight, with possibly 10mm possible. Turning Drier later tomorrow with some sunny intervals and only the odd chance of a shower.  

As the gates open on Wednesday, a fairly slack Westerly with the odd chance of a shower but probably staying dry. Temps around 23c.

 

High Pressure ridging in from the South West for Thursday with mostly settled conditions expected, the odd shower again cannot be ruled. Friday looks dry under high pressure with Warm conditions expected. Temps around 23c, perhaps with more cloud on Friday.

Saturday also looks  dry under high pressure with Warm conditions expected. A slight change in the weather patterns with fronts trying to edge from the West, however at this stage it seems this will probably arrive early Monday so one to keep an eye on. Temps around 25c with sunny spells likely.

 

Edited June 19, 2023 by J10