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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Come on guys the output is looking a tad better by next week.. Its not even the solstice till the 21st. I've seen more horror on here this evening than an episode of the walking dead. Yes the weekend looks dodgy... Beyond that it improves.. Anyway we are long overdue a barmy August.. Time to put the heating on! Give me a break, I'm posting this with my head stuck out of the window. Don't you just love a bit of drama!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

The 18z is most definitely bringing the heat.... +16 uppers into the South.... This weekends barbecue, and the following weekend maybe all together quite a different affair!

gfs-1-228.png

gfs-0-228.png

gfs-1-234.png

scottish-barbeque-a-canny-wait-fur-the-summer-_-11697813.png

summer-is-coming_o_307885.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Certainly would be some interesting weather coming up if we keep this forecasted cut off low to our vicinity, especially if we do see these warm/hot incursions cropping up. A recipe for a few bangers! 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

To continue on Sunday with the gfs,

Another low develops in the circulation of the trough and this also tracks north east into Eng;and and Wales bringing more wet weather and strong winds. I should emphsise this iasn't, as yet, signed and sealed

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0081600.thumb.png.1c58947944985088371b4e2e0d92fa60.pnggfs-eur-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-0038400.thumb.png.2a39e34bcc6365e4ab55b17eb824e689.pnggfs-eur-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-0081600.thumb.png.78fdcac762eefab880751fd88f1ea561.png

The next amplification phase is now ell under way so best left here I feel

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-0178800.thumb.png.d9ee2b4f07192dd08fe9e05a4f56b51b.png

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Well it’s a terrible outlook, the forecast appears to be getting even worse for the weekend, GFS conjures up a secondary low spinning up round the southern axis of the trough, always a risk something like this will happen at short notice and the models won’t pick it up until late on, not nailed on but pretty grim. Again a concern gfs holds higher to the north blocking the escape of the low I have a feeling low pressure will really stagnate of the UK leading to a lot of rain. Still almost zero signs of anything better inside the 10day time frame. Getting close to the point where it’s tough to see any hope for the first half of June. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The 00Z is interesting: promising at 264; somewhat less-so at 384:

image.thumb.png.200c0e44932fe046492d02dd5ec12e2f.pngimage.thumb.png.7c1804e3301cb40dd25c9629213bcf65.png 

The FV3 is the FV3...Bluerghh!

image.thumb.png.a775fc6279ab2aaefead3f349850188f.pngimage.thumb.png.bc7b236d0985e97d1b73870d6ef12f77.png

The ensembles are not exactly what one would call 'inspiring' either:

image.thumb.png.e824d016b820f4232482e26552896de3.pngimage.thumb.png.dd84423c37ec6ce40ba4fbc97b1e8b66.png 

image.thumb.png.0afbce68dddd00818d5d092274517fd1.pngimage.thumb.png.4ecbd2f62f138ee1b25f687cd765c671.png

Here's waiting for the 06Zs!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
7 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

The 18z is most definitely bringing the heat.... +16 uppers into the South.... This weekends barbecue, and the following weekend maybe all together quite a different affair!

 

 

 

Oh! I see the 20c Isotherm licking the Kent shoreline! Now that's a better evolution! That would most likely bring some relatively big thunderstorms, too! Here's hoping!  

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm doesn't develop the low and track it north east on Sunday, rather just keeping the disturbance to the south. As I mentioned earlier the detail of all of this is a long way from sorted

index.thumb.png.997df6e161d221b088e1080f955530cc.pngecmwf-eur-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-0081600.thumb.png.e004fb6f69b7e6bef185d7609522f028.pngecmwf-eur-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-9995200.thumb.png.ab7ae6bdf603af05ad7667c7a7f4c2f4.png

precip.thumb.png.13eaf311eefa517c8c6206a05450dd30.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Oh look....ECM gives us the 68904764876th Griceland high of the spring/early summer:

image.thumb.png.b617702fd596d9a721c5f3d4a93e0655.png

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Oh look....ECM gives us the 68904764876th Griceland high of the spring/early summer:

image.thumb.png.b617702fd596d9a721c5f3d4a93e0655.png

As long as the High doesn't get scooped too far North West, I could live with that. Better that than the UK trough that's been hanging around for weeks.

Edited by mountain shadow
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
9 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

The 18z is most definitely bringing the heat.... +16 uppers into the South.... This weekends barbecue, and the following weekend maybe all together quite a different affair!

 

gfs-0-228.png

gfs-1-234.png

 

 

Shame won't happen, would have put to bed the '13th June enigma' thread, the only day to never reach 30 degrees during June. July and Aug

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I just can't see why there is so much gloom. For me the ECM 0z is an improvement! Even up North there is a big improvement, with much warmer conditions beyond day 8.The mean is also much better than the 12z yesterday. 

ECM0-192.gif

ECM0-216.gif

ECM0-240.gif

graphe_ens3 (2).png

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

Precipitation accumulations are showing well above 50mm very widely (except far SE) for the week so most definitely marks the end to the long dry weather that's been with us.

First half of June looking like a dogs breakfast or dinner.

All depends on the next 10 days and how they pan out. Too much HLB getting up over Greenland to be positive and optimistic.. I think mid June it will be a rinse repeat of last weekend with the heat only affecting the SE for a day or two before we're thrown into another 10 days of trough.

 

 

 

 

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36 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I just can't see why there is so much gloom. For me the ECM 0z is an improvement! Even up North there is a big improvement, with much warmer conditions beyond day 8.The mean is also much better than the 12z yesterday. 

ECM0-192.gif

ECM0-216.gif

ECM0-240.gif

graphe_ens3 (2).png

The gloom is because any potential warm is still 8-10days away at absolute best and the forecast for the weekend is looking worse run by run with a secondary low now spinning up across the country. 

Even when high pressure does set in, way, way into FI it quickly regresses with the reassertion of northerly heights putting us back trough / northerly territory. 

So zero signs really of an Improvement and it’s been like that for a week now, remember all those big warm outliers for this coming weekend? 

Edited by Alderc
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Your assuming the pattern is locked in though, I've noticed a post above saying... Rinse and repeat by mid June, followed by another 10 days of unsettled conditions. That's literally taking a punt at the next 3 weeks being useless... Its not quite that simple. I'm just pointing out that the ECM ensembles have trended warmer, if we are going to keep saying it's all at day 10,then there becomes no point in even viewing them, and looking for a change. This entire summer pattern is taking on the familiar role we see in December... Its not coming, it's all in fi... Yet we are still only in the 1st week of June. I'm looking for positives, no matter how small they may seem. I'm not gonna join the masses and start saying, June looks a write off just yet! Perhaps the moderators would consider renaming the thread.... The hunt for summer.... That seems to be the way it's going. And Ive just viewed the 6z.. And it's not pretty... But I'm still hopefull, perhaps the 12s will look better again... Hell, I'm not sure myself now... 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
5 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

06z is just todays weather right until the end of the run -  awful

I suppose that depends on location and your perceptions. I've heard talk of the weekend being a complete write off, yet I'm seeing sunny spells and scattered showers for here... So i would say.. Usable if anything. Hopefully like yesterday the 12s will improve

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Not happy with the charts this morning? Do you wish a miracle would occur?

For the warm and settled spell enthusiasts, I unleash apon you the GEM 00Z at 204 to 240 hours!

E7443556-31E9-4277-B094-6F5C5B332220.thumb.png.f94623335b265eb9a4eb04c061968212.pngAF634FE1-2E01-4F26-993A-32FC27AA6FB5.thumb.png.c710f8fec930cdff7365db865ecdfe1f.png8B4D2322-EE52-49D4-8EE4-42E3C56D8736.thumb.png.7d36a5353ce3dae36f9ab77456789f2c.pngCAD8EC8C-1BAB-445E-BF0A-5D29D4B7B741.thumb.png.74d9a59d94d8386e59f2787d2153a67f.png

The 850 hPa temperatures at 240 hours:

D962F59F-8DD2-4DEE-903A-603DFD2C1F91.thumb.png.13ec9ac93913504e811a158d8f0fd276.png

Just for a bit of fun and to brighten the mood up in here a little! The Mid-Atlantic/Azores High ridge building over the U.K from the South-West, bringing some settled and warmer weather (especially in the West sheltered by the slack North-Easterly flow and in sunny spells). 

From what some have suggested, the behaviour of the trough and the Low Pressure this week affecting what could happen next week. Certainly ideal for Low Pressure to not hang about over us for too long, as it could then hold up the attempts from the Mid Atlantic and/or Azores ridging to push over us from the West/South-West. And maybe allow further Lows to the West/North-West of the ridging to quickly squeeze through and become attracted to the UK troughing like a bunch of bees pollinating flowers!  Plus, as someone else mentioned, don’t want High Pressure building too far North-West as it could send Lows on a Southerly trajectory and possibly continue to have the UK’s name on it. This being applicable again, if you’re someone wanting some warm/hot and settled weather, and you don’t want the U.K. raided by Lows. (Though, to be fair, having Greenland Highs doesn’t always mean it’s going to be cool and unsettled over the U.K. Particularly in negative Western Based North Atlantic Oscillation setups with attempts for High Pressure to build close by to us over Mainland Europe).  

 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

The GFS 6z mean is less encouraging than the ECM 0z at similar time frames, but it does look like a general decrease in rainfall spikes beyond mid month.. 

graphe3_1000_286_93___.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Thanks DRL just what the doctor ordered.

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
15 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

Yes Frosty - seems like I am Bill Murray in Groundhog Day at the minute when looking at the models/mean on a daily basis. (I think this is why the thread has become much quieter - folk are a bit bored of it all)

Slight improvement for Southern parts but the rest of us are still sitting waiting for our starters to arrive.

I just can’t see a UK and Ireland wide hot spell this month - few days heat in Southern parts then few days average temps...rinse and repeat.

Time for a wee break from it all - be back in ten days to hopefully see a change to Summery weather for all! Until then another monsoon tomorrow here in the West of Scotland! 

Have a good week all! 

Forget the ten days break! I have just read the Metoffice outlook from next week until the end of June - incredible reading for the Northwest of the UK. (Me! )

After a week of heavy rain on and off it’s exactly the kind of news I want to read! (Although I take these long range forecasts with a pinch of salt - especially after Winter!)

With regards to this morning ECM and GFS we all know the next 5 to 7 days are rubbish for us all and I still can’t see any sign of a UK and Ireland wide hot spell for the foreseeable.

At least the folk who don’t enjoy hot and sunny weather can be pleased with the current outlook - for the rest of us let’s hope for a bit of naughty hot weather in July! 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

Forget the ten days break! I have just read the Metoffice outlook from next week until the end of June - incredible reading for the Northwest of the UK. (Me! )

After a week of heavy rain on and off it’s exactly the kind of news I want to read! (Although I take these long range forecasts with a pinch of salt - especially after Winter!)

With regards to this morning ECM and GFS we all know the next 5 to 7 days are rubbish for us all and I still can’t see any sign of a UK and Ireland wide hot spell for the foreseeable.

At least the folk who don’t enjoy hot and sunny weather can be pleased with the current outlook - for the rest of us let’s hope for a bit of naughty hot weather in July! 

Encouraging Mr frost... Cheers! And just as I posted a Scottish barbecue last night in the snow!!! That reverse psychology seems to have payed off!! Yes I picked upon this the other day, heights improving the situation to the NW... and like you say... Forget flamin June... Let's go for sizzling July..

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