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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

And here we are next Monday. Just a spot chart but it's worth noting the meridional pattern in our segment of the NH

gfs-nhemi-z300_speed-0168000.thumb.png.6808530b0091fb9bf1afb0a511afa902.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
10 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

No sign of summer in the 12z from GFS, in fact its a real echo of June of 2007/12- This weekends LP just leaves a green blob of snot hanging stuck right over the UK for days , even in the late stages of the run its a complete low pressure fest with the Azores held tightly away out of reach. It would have to take something really dramatic to happen to get back the 2018 pattern if we were to have a summer like last year.

A summer repeat of last year wasn't even on the minds of the rational thinking. A decent summer, a mixed summer, a backloaded summer, perhaps. If exeter were to base there forecasts on GFS output we would have a complete rewrite of the daily forecast... For me GFS is well wide of the mark... And to prove it, tune in for the 18z when it will most likely show major plumes devoloping again.... 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Personally Pete, I think the big problem lies with how many runs a day GFS is performing! Currently there are 8 a day!! Take into consideration these runs go out to 15/16 days, and it becomes very easy to see how people will be led up the garden path! They should start running it out to 10 day's, and only run it twice daily.. It would be much easier to make comparisons this way, rather than to try making sense of 8 individual runs daily.. Blood pressure increase and severe anxiety is the end result! 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.36c77498b886e970675cc4d329d4e600.png

Well, if you like rain, you have hit the jackpot with GFS 

There is days and days and more days of it, i'm not buying it, EC will side with UKMO imo..

I don't think a chart like that would bring copious amounts of rain here. A uniform temperature gradient with heat on the continent a bit further away. This is n contrast to 2007 which saw cool air parked over the UK but heat very close by. That is what brings huge rainfall totals, with today's pattern showing this to a smaller extent.

That chart could produce some good home grown storms though!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

While i suspect its a rogue run the GFS12z out to day 10 is monumental in the way it builds northern blocking (the UK avoids the worst of the result).

That said, it did have backing from the Euro this morning. As much as some will cling to those warmer uppers in the long run having a high to our north west and a negatively titled Azores High (as per Euro this morning) will only end badly.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
15 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

No sign of summer in the 12z from GFS, in fact its a real echo of June of 2007/12- This weekends LP just leaves a green blob of snot hanging stuck right over the UK for days , even in the late stages of the run its a complete low pressure fest with the Azores held tightly away out of reach. It would have to take something really dramatic to happen to get back the 2018 pattern if we were to have a summer like last year.

Nobody in their right mind would expect this summer to be like the last. Talk about setting your bar too high!

There are still signs of an improvement. Patience may be the key.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

The GFS continues to churn out runs with LP either over or close to the UK for the forseeable future....it all looks a bit 'Corbyn' to me i.e unable to make its mind up and looking pretty unpalatable to the masses.......On the plus side, thank goodness the modle output doesn't dictate the weather eh?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The GEFS ensembles are here. There are some stonkers and some stinkers, but at least the mean shows some signs of a gradual improvement. In FI!:oldgrin:

 

image.thumb.png.07006e973272cd9a4720780b4596f041.pngimage.thumb.png.778d26a11cb39150706e1d4cc44d9727.png 

image.thumb.png.657bfe18a0bd7724a0d8a50dee4e6fa7.pngimage.thumb.png.8acfd296b372e3ad97c211010afc5eb9.png

And I think it's fair to say that the wait for return to very-dry conditions might be rather a long one!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

EC also struggling to lift out the troughing at 144-

image.thumb.png.cd2db2958eedeb74f05928fe1f7acab5.png

Its trying at 168 and looks less locked in than GFS..

image.thumb.png.3a293f615d93737a2228f3d3451d4f06.png

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC also struggling to lift out the troughing at 144-

image.thumb.png.cd2db2958eedeb74f05928fe1f7acab5.png

Yes and all looks a bit messy by T192:

image.thumb.jpg.374908e31d420444aff6701ae66e8409.jpg

But it does look like an improvement may be seen on the next two frames...let's see.

Well not really at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.8c4905bdf42458d38fe0ca545d73718d.jpg

Could be a few days before the evolution at day 9 is in any way resolved.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I think overall.... Not good enough.... Upper air temps of around 0c at day 9....bag of spanners.... 

The end kind of ties in with exeters thought, high pressure to the NW bringing better conditions there.. Overall upper air temps are about as good as you would Expect in winter.... Even my patient head is being done in now. 

ECM1-216 (1).gif

ECM0-216.gif

ECM1-240 (1).gif

ECM0-240.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Nobody in their right mind would expect this summer to be like the last. Talk about setting your bar too high!

There are still signs of an improvement. Patience may be the key.

But a warming climate you would/should to see warm/hot summers running back to back at times, while I personally never thought a repeat was on, I was certainly expecting a 7-8 out of summer, off course that could still happen. 

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It’s a poor ECM 12z, albeit with a different versions of poor to GFS, brief rest-bite days 8-9 before HP quickly starts regressing north to its new favourite location, would be an awful pattern following on from that D10 chart....sigh....

Just bought a bottle of Kraken, was planning on saving it until the bbq gets fired up, might attack it now with a straw...

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 minute ago, Alderc said:

It’s a poor ECM 12z, albeit with a different versions of poor to GFS, brief rest-bite days 8-9 before HP quickly starts regressing north to its new favourite location, would be an awful pattern following on from that D10 chart....sigh....

Just bought a bottle of Kraken, was planning on saving it until the bbq gets fired up, might attack it now with a straw...

Barbecue? You left the country Alderc... Sounds like a good plan though.... Enjoy. 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

The good thing about the ECM is that Europe is cool too. If we have to suffer, so should they!

It will be totally different in the morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The good thing about the ECM is that Europe is cool too. If we have to suffer, so should they!

It will be totally different in the morning.

Yeh.... It will probably be even worse...

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and dry, thunderstorms, mild temps (13-22°C).
  • Location: Sheffield
19 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I think overall.... Not good enough.... Upper air temps of around 0c at day 9....bag of spanners.... 

The end kind of ties in with exeters thought, high pressure to the NW bringing better conditions there.. Overall upper air temps are about as good as you would Expect in winter.... Even my patient head is being done in now. 

ECM1-216 (1).gif

ECM0-216.gif

ECM1-240 (1).gif

ECM0-240.gif

I find it absolutely amazing that the green/blue blob perches itself consistently directly over the UK only, as if it somehow "knows" we are there, or someone just drew it on because they don't like us.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Just now, Thundershine said:

I find it absolutely amazing that the green/blue blob perches itself consistently directly over the UK only, as if it somehow "knows" we are there, or someone just drew it on because they don't like us.

Its got euro vision song contest all over it....

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM cack again, low pressure swirling around the UK before another northern block takes hold.

After the models and AO forecasts toyed with the idea of lifting the negative AO out towards mid month, there’s now universal agreement for it to turn sharply negative once again. Looking like the best part of 45 days or more of a negative AO, truly depressing really in May and June. Oh to get that In winter.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

 

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Hard to see where the next 20c is coming from down here in Bournemouth let alone 25 or 30c. 

We’ve just got to get something to disrupt this pattern, could do with some unexpected tropical activity sending the remnants up towards Iceland.....

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

You really have to laugh about this hobby/passion of ours. 

Every day we view a ridiculous amount of model runs, data, outlooks, forecasts ect ect and for what!? When the actual day arrives it’s 99% more often than not completely different from what was previously predicted! If they had been spot on just think of the extremely snowy Winters and piping hot/severe thunderstorms Summers we would have got!

And in saying all that...I will be up early in the morning and late at night doing it all again and that will probably go on for the rest of my life! 

Looking out the window really is the only non stressful way of checking the weather! 

ECM ends with hope here in the Northwest but it is still a bit...meh! 

anim_usq7.gif

The good thing about this limp start to Summer is that it can only get better for all the UK and Ireland at some stage for hot and sunny weather! (If that is what you desire!)

On that note I wish you all a good night! 

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Just to illustrate current uncertainty, and taking a NH view for a change, here's the GEM (best run for summer) and ECM ( one of many less good) at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.daf5d882df228dcdd73b899bd5fe9660.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.49736402e84ae0351788ed7551c1a77c.jpg

Completely different - there's no signal there, only noise.  Let's go back a bit, T144:

image.thumb.jpg.e5f53e3f4e39eaa73b02bdd504b1ecab.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.adb8b5b99dea74877fc53193f02ebb41.jpg

Here we see the difference,GEM (left) more zonal, ECM(right) has the trough dug right in over the UK, and heights more into Greenland.  As per my earlier post, I don't think the models have got a decent take on this in winter let alone summer, when reliability falls.  So to look at other indicators, CFS AAM charts show an increase in atmospheric angular momentum in the 10 day period (backing GEM!):

image.thumb.jpg.0941c1d53361f80d148ee27004aab978.jpg

yes it is just another model, but you have to try to piece these things together somehow, finally SST anomaly:

image.thumb.jpg.9c8696c40a32a02ae9eb9301811d7d3e.jpg

Still looks supportive of a SW/NE jet but only when the atmosphere has got itself sorted out......it's taking its time!

Edited by Mike Poole
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