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July 2019 CET & EWP forecast contests

Roger J Smith

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Roger J Smith Veteran

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    Posted

     

    (a) CET Temperature forecast contest -- averages and extremes

    ... all years since 1981 are shown for comparison ...

     

    25.2 ... 29th, 1948, warmest daily mean

    19.7 ... 2006 (warmest July)

    19.5 ... 1983 (2nd warmest)

    19.1 ... 2018 (3rd warmest)

    18.8 ... 1783 (4th warmest)

    18.7 ... 1852, 1976 (tied 5th warmest)

    18.6 ... 1995 (7th warmest)

    18.3 ... 2013 

    18.2 ... 1989

    18.0 ... 1994

    17.7 ... 1999, 2014 

    17.6 ... 2003

    17.3 ... 1991 

    17.2 ... 2001 

    17.1 ... 2010 

    16.9 ... 1984, 1990, 2005, 2016 ... average for 1989-2018 (16.85) (highest 30-year average)

    16.8 ... 2017 ... average for 1991-2018 (emerging 1991-2020 normal) and 2001-2018

    16.7 ... 1997 ... average for 1981-2010

    16.5 ... 1982, 1996 ... average for 1971-2000

    16.2 ... 1985, 1992, 2008

    16.1 ... 2009 ... average for 1961-1990, also for 1901-2000 and 1701-1800

    16.0 ... 2002 ... average for all years 1659-2018

    15.9 ... 1986, 1987, 2015 

    15.8 ... 2004 ... average for 1801-1900

    15.6 ... average for 1659-1700

    15.5 ... 1981, 1998, 2000, 2012 and lowest 30-year average 1671-1700 (15.47)

    15.2 ... 1993, 2007, 2011 mean and coldest since 1988 (14.7)

    14.7 ... 1988 (tied with 1980 as coldest since 1965, and with four other years as tied 35th coldest)

    14.0 ... 1965 CET (tied 11th coldest with 1674, 1685, 1713)

    13.9 ... 1919 (10th coldest)

    13.8 ... 1725, 1840, 1841 (tied 7th coldest)

    13.7 ... 1888, 1922 (tied 5th coldest)

    13.6 ... 1879 (4th coldest)

    13.5 ... 1695,1802 (tied 2nd coldest)

    13.4 ... 1816 (coldest July)

     8.7 ... 20th (1836) coldest daily mean

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________

    Enter your July forecast by end of the day Sunday 30th June without penalty,

    or during the first three days of July with increasing time penalties.

    =================================================================================

     

    (b) Optional EWP contest

    Predict the England and Wales mean precipitation in mm for July 2019. The contest uses the Hadley EWP version which runs from 1766 to 2019. Here are some averages and extremes as a guide:

     

    182.6 __ wettest (1828)

    140.7 __ wettest since 1981 (2009)

    _93.9 __ highest 30-year running average (1773-1802 and 1775-1804)

    _69.8 __ average for 1989-2018

    _67.3 __ average for 1981-2010

    _57.4 __ lowest 30-year running average (1971-2000)

    _26.3 __ driest since 1981 (1999)

    _15.8 __ driest since 1825 (1911)

    __8.2 __ driest (1825) __ second driest was 1800 (9.1 mm)

    _____________________________________________________________________________________

    Enter your forecast with your CET forecast, same deadlines. 

    Maximum score 10.0, late penalties 0.2 per day.

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    SunnyDazee Contributor

    SunnyDazee

    Posted
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, sunny.
    • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
    Posted

    I’ll have 15.9c and 107mm please

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    Bobd29 Enthusiast

    Bobd29

    Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
    • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
    Posted

    17.0C and 100mm please

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    LetItSnow! Rising Star

    LetItSnow!

    Posted
  • Location: Islington
  • Weather Preferences: Below zero and preferably a bunch of snow! Cool summers.
    • Location: Islington
    Posted

    16.8 and 73mm please

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    MetCat Rising Star

    MetCat

    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and dry, thunderstorms, mild temps (13-22°C).
    • Location: Sheffield
    Posted

    13.7°C, and 400mm of rain. 

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    CheesepuffScott Accomplished

    CheesepuffScott

    Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
    • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
    Posted

    Wet and warm, plumey with a handful of tstorms in first half, a more troughy middle and a generally settled, warm end.

    18.3°C and 94.5mm

     

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    Lettucing Gutted Community Regular

    Lettucing Gutted

    Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
    • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
    Posted

    The misery of the 3rd millennium continues...  22C  :oldsad:  Last sub 14C July in 1922.  Last sub 15C July in 1988.  Last sub 15.5C July in 2011.

    200mm from monsoons and Atlantic garbage!

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    snowray Veteran

    snowray

    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
    • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
    Posted

    I'm going to be abroad this July so it's bound to become quite warm or hot, I'll go for 17c please.

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    matty007 Rising Star

    matty007

    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
    • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
    Posted

    18.1 please

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    DiagonalRedLine Veteran

    DiagonalRedLine

    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
    • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
    Posted

    Will go for 17.5*C please. Generally warm and probably thundery, too!

    Rainfall: 70mm

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    Polar Gael Rising Star

    Polar Gael

    Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
    • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
    Posted

    18.2C and 75.0mm for me please. 

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    JeffC Accomplished

    JeffC

    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
    • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
    Posted

    16.9 C and 72 mm please

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    DR(S)NO Community Regular

    DR(S)NO

    Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
    • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
    Posted

    17.0c and 65mm thank you please

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    Dancerwithwings Maestro

    Dancerwithwings

    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
    • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
    Posted

    17.3c....Cheers

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    stewfox Accomplished

    stewfox

    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
    • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
    Posted

    18.7c 43mm 

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