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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Sweatyman Seasoned

Sweatyman

Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
Posted
2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

The ICON remains consistent. 20’C+ 850hpa temperatures pushing into the UK on Thursday and as far north as Scotland by Friday.

icon-1-120_aap9.png

to think it might only be early 20s at best makes me grumpy

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

132 ICON has +26c uppers just touching west sussex -

ACDA8FEE-073F-4196-97CE-BA07895DBED9.thumb.png.18fa98a9246ffa79763021282935815d.png

Incredible run - these sort of uppers are normally reserved for North Africa/Southern Spain!!

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

Just to think the icon was shunting the core of the heat Eastwards just the other day... Now it appears to be leading the way with a direct hit of heat, that would surely put temperatures into the mid to high 30s if everything falls into place. 

Amazing stuff @northwestsnow and @Steve Murr

icon-1-102.png

icon-1-120.png

icon-1-144 (1).png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Amazing uppers (850's)...amazing looking plume but not so amazing 2m temps from the Icon 12z!!

icon-1-123.png

icon-9-123.png

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Jayces Enthusiast

Jayces

Posted
  • Location: South Norwood, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Cold Winters & Warm Dry Summers
  • Location: South Norwood, London
Posted
43 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

Various models are showing much fresher weather from Sunday! Rain moving in from the N Atlantic!  Very disappointed with the plume non event! GFS is terrible at forecasting

Feel free to give us a forecast yourself?

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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted
Just now, Jon Snow said:

Amazing uppers (850's)...amazing looking plume but not so amazing 2m temps from the Icon 12z!!

icon-1-123.png

icon-9-123.png

Are there any surface level wind charts for the icon? 

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Stabilo19 Experienced

Stabilo19

Posted
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, dry & sunny
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
Posted
1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Amazing uppers (850's)...amazing looking plume but not so amazing 2m temps from the Icon 12z!!

icon-1-123.png

icon-9-123.png

UK: 22 degrees 850 temp = 24 degrees surface temp.

Meanwhile..

Sweden: 10 degrees 850 temp = 24 degrees surface temp.

France: 26 degrees 850 temp = 40 degrees surface temp.

 

Horrific if it really plays out like that! 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, danm said:

Are there any surface level wind charts for the icon? 

Probably but I don't speak french on meteociel..anyway, incredible uppers but the scorching heat is for france.

c'est la vie...actually I do speak french

Edited by Jon Snow
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Probably but I don't speak french..anyway, incredible uppers but the scorching heat is for france.

Icon is German Karl... Lol... I think we will be terribly unlucky to end up with those projected maximums.. All its gonna take is lengthy sunny spells to add many degrees to those totals. 

Edit.... Yes Karl... I thought that after posting... Bon jour mate

Edited by Mattwolves
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Icon is German Karl... Lol... I think we will be terribly unlucky to end up with those projected maximums.. All its gonna take is lengthy sunny spells to add many degrees to those totals. 

I was thinking more of Meteociel

Anyway, there's a great big plume coming and it's not a glancing blow so the 2m temps may / should go up as we get closer.

Edited by Jon Snow
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

GFS 12Z at T+87, and RH is on the rise:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

 

Might be 'uncomfortable', out on the farm, this Tuesday.:shok:images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQTPagGBymUe0YGw9UoY1M

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

ICON is a heck of an influx of heat T135:

image.thumb.jpg.c7f5a4cecb8a243041cb1064eba8c274.jpg

But the end of the run it telling too, heat to the south and pressure building, bodes well for a hot summer...

image.thumb.jpg.dc3a48f520a7378693ee5d3e7271850b.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.57fc16c2226c4fcc69a4c89179e6d345.jpg

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Stabilo19 Experienced

Stabilo19

Posted
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, dry & sunny
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
Posted

ICON showing gusty easterly winds for the UK towards the end of the week suppressing temperatures.

icon1.thumb.png.1935b3b6e69d4327def30a8c9d285df2.png

icon2.thumb.png.9308f671c5f5a9b7a5d23c41de4afbe5.png

At least it will be dry and sunny for most:

icon3.thumb.png.c555f35c4a6bcb0dd705410ba4b1e192.png

icon4.thumb.png.5db8f3b23fa12a4b1bd2c03955e06587.png

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

And all.of a sudden the gfs decides to join the party and send the 20 degree 850 temp all the way to northern england!!upgrade in that sense!!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
3 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

ICON showing gusty easterly winds for the UK towards the end of the week suppressing temperatures.

icon1.thumb.png.1935b3b6e69d4327def30a8c9d285df2.png

icon2.thumb.png.9308f671c5f5a9b7a5d23c41de4afbe5.png

At least it will be dry and sunny for most:

icon3.thumb.png.c555f35c4a6bcb0dd705410ba4b1e192.png

icon4.thumb.png.5db8f3b23fa12a4b1bd2c03955e06587.png

I think counties bordering the north sea are going to suffer with cool temps and lots of low cloud..haar / fret at times during the week ahead making for marked contrasts in fortune regionally.

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

UKMO T120 looks incredible for western areas, and has very subtle differences on previous runs. Wind not too strong, probably not too much north sea flow in the far SW. I strongly believe this would see temperatures in the 90s in at least the very favored spots on the western side. 

UW120-21.GIF?23-17

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

So far so good from the 12z..

gfs-1-120.png

gfs-1-126.png

gfs-1-126 (1).png

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Stabilo19 Experienced

Stabilo19

Posted
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, dry & sunny
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
Posted
2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I think counties bordering the north sea are going to suffer with cool temps and lots of low cloud..haar / fret at times during the week ahead making for marked contrasts in fortune regionally.

The dutch are probably as frustrated as we are with the ICON, with 20+ 850 temps and surface temps barely breaking mid 20s.

Hopefully things improve!

icon5.thumb.png.1cb90ae7c42ff2e508a53de2df97cf43.png

icon6.thumb.png.cbee81351e33d66bbf00142cad025af1.png

 

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I’m sorry but mid twenties in summer is not an ‘event’. The surface temperature projections for such a strong and extremely warm plume are completely underwhelming. 14 degrees Celsius across the Midlands on Tuesday according to the GFS. It was warmer in winter!

Aye, Tuesday looks quite chilly, horrible day

 

 

image.png

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Maybe Saturday will be a scorcher?h850t850eu.png                                                                                                             h500slp.png:oldgood:

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted (edited)

850s a lot lower on the UKMO than on the previous runs . It’s turning into non event plume . Suits me fine because I hate high temps

3986C7A5-DE68-457B-B44E-C91E7192465C.gif

8F911F5A-1719-4CBC-8AF8-636D3D20ACC9.gif

Edited by ICE COLD
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

The strong breeze gusting 40-45mph will drag that cooler surface layer a long across the country, that’s been consistently modelled for the last 48hrs now.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
Just now, ICE COLD said:

850s a lot lower on the UKMO than on the previous runs . 

3986C7A5-DE68-457B-B44E-C91E7192465C.gif

8F911F5A-1719-4CBC-8AF8-636D3D20ACC9.gif

Funny thing is, lower 850's could mean higher 2m temps..or maybe I've been looking at models too long!!

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