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BornFromTheVoid

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
On 22/01/2022 at 16:36, Snowjokes92 said:

Any news on how the gulf stream is behaving in recent times? Evidence of a it slowing down or nearly on it ways out i have heard in recent years. I did read somewhere a complete shutdown if happened would only take up to 2 to 3 years!

There is quite a lot of uncertainly regarding the gulf stream.

Several studies have found evidence of a substantial slowing in recent decades or even in over a century. Some, such as this, have used sea surface temperature observations to detect the slowdown. Others such as this, have used more direct observations of water flow using an array of instrument in the Atlantic Ocean itself, also detecting a slowdown. 

Some suggest that it's nearing a critical threshold, on the verge of collapse.
These results reveal spatially consistent empirical evidence that, in the course of the last century, the AMOC may have evolved from relatively stable conditions to a point close to a critical transition

If previous changes to the gulf stream are related to abrupt climate shifts, such as the Younger Dryas or Heinrich Events, then the collapse and the effects could happen over the course decades. But given the uncertainty, it could be even less.

But who knows! A few days ago, another study came out suggesting an increase in the Gulf Stream strength over the last century, as suggested by increased warm Atlantic water flows into the Nordic Seas.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Mother N. seems to like 'balance' so I guess She's none too pleased about how warm the south of the N. Atlantic/G.O.M. have become?

 

It would not surprise me if we do see an increase in flow from South to North esp. since we are busy mixing out the Arctic Ocean from both the entrances? (Atlantification/Pacification)

 

As for Arctic heat waves? Folk who've been posting here a while will have become used to my moaning about the sky high temps around the basin the last 2 decades esp. when we're having 'washout summers'/flooding here in the UK!

 

The changes that I've seen occur up there since my kiddies were born are enormous &, to my mind at least, post the largest threats to us of rapid, 'unexpected', climate events which no one will call out as false/exaggerated/not worth concern!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
On 28/01/2022 at 08:50, BornFromTheVoid said:

There is quite a lot of uncertainly regarding the gulf stream.

Several studies have found evidence of a substantial slowing in recent decades or even in over a century. Some, such as this, have used sea surface temperature observations to detect the slowdown. Others such as this, have used more direct observations of water flow using an array of instrument in the Atlantic Ocean itself, also detecting a slowdown. 

Some suggest that it's nearing a critical threshold, on the verge of collapse.
These results reveal spatially consistent empirical evidence that, in the course of the last century, the AMOC may have evolved from relatively stable conditions to a point close to a critical transition

If previous changes to the gulf stream are related to abrupt climate shifts, such as the Younger Dryas or Heinrich Events, then the collapse and the effects could happen over the course decades. But given the uncertainty, it could be even less.

But who knows! A few days ago, another study came out suggesting an increase in the Gulf Stream strength over the last century, as suggested by increased warm Atlantic water flows into the Nordic Seas.

I guess the question to be asked really is what is the "normal" and balanced state of the Atlantic, or is it constantly changing, and thus there is no real "normal"? 

We do see fluctuation in our climate over time, and this isn't saying we humans are not having an effect on our climate globally, but locally to the UK the big driver is the Gulf Stream and to understand changes to our climate here we must understand the Gulf Stream to quite some degree I would think?

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A very important conversation was just published in NatureGeoscience on whether Atlantic Ocean circulation is (or has been) slowing in these two papers

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-022-00896-4

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-022-00897-3

This new paper might be of interest (open access)

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL096527

 

Edited by knocker
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  • 9 months later...

I have a Question for BFTV or Quicksilver1989.  A new study has just been published by climate scientists.  There are some denier blogs (Paul Homewood and Net Zero Watch) that have jumped on this, and have said that it claims that natural climate vaiability is mainly responsible for climate change, and not CO2.  Are they taking this study out of context?

http://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/35/24/JCLI-D-22-0081.1.xml

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
14 hours ago, Greyhound81 said:

I have a Question for BFTV or Quicksilver1989.  A new study has just been published by climate scientists.  There are some denier blogs (Paul Homewood and Net Zero Watch) that have jumped on this, and have said that it claims that natural climate vaiability is mainly responsible for climate change, and not CO2.  Are they taking this study out of context?

http://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/35/24/JCLI-D-22-0081.1.xml

I haven't read it fully but from what I've read, it can be basically summarised as:

- Estimated effects of anthropogenic radiative forcing is estimated to have increased by 50% in the last 20 years. (including positive feedbacks such as CO2 and negative such as SO2).
- However the increase is being exacerbated by reductions in aerosol emissions.
-  They compare observations of temperature compared to those modelled under estimates of radiative forcing (from an ensemble in the last IPCC report)....

- The decadal trend in global temps was +0.18C from 2000-2009
- The decadal trend in global temps was +0.35C from 2010-2019

However a basic look at the warming trend is too simplistic and there are also decreases in aerosols contributing to the trend, along with the huge El Nino in 2015-16. A figure from the paper.

Could contain: Plot, Chart

Once this is considered...

- The estimated warming trend according to anthro emission increases was +0.19C from 2000-2009
- The estimated warming trend according to anthro emission increases was +0.24C from 2010-2019
 

Basically it says that the warming trend decade on decade can vary substantially and should be exercised with caution when making policy decisions based on what the most recent decades have been showing.

That is my understanding of it anyway.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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  • 2 months later...
Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

Rather than make use of sunlight to generate energy and reduce fossil fuel use, this UN study proposes that we should consider reflecting some sunlight back into space…….

skynews-planet-earth-sun_6072586.jpg?202
NEWS.SKY.COM

The UN looked at Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) technologies which aim to cool the Earth rapidly by reflecting a small amount of sunlight back into space...

Space mirrors are just a sci-fi fantasy but there are many ways to increase surface albedo including simply painting roof surfaces white (expensive) or reforestation of grassland (impractical).  There are other ways to theoretically reduce sunlight including injecting aerosols into the atmosphere (sounds risky) but none of the proposals can ever be a substitute for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.  ‘Solar Radiation Modification’ could only make an insignificant contribution to controlling climate change so would it not be better to spend the time, money and expertise developing the use of sunlight to offset carbon based energy technologies rather than sending it back into space?

Edited by Sky Full
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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Canvey, Thames Estuary
  • Location: Isle of Canvey, Thames Estuary

Interesting view and output from the Greenland ice cores which hasn’t made msm.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Co. Meath, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Co. Meath, Ireland
3 hours ago, GSP said:

Interesting view and output from the Greenland ice cores which hasn’t made msm.

 

MSM

1C5A6E8D-399A-4507-BCC4-DB55B3EE3CB5.gif

Edited by Mixer 85
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