Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 cheeky_monkey Global warmiing getting worse ...

[LetItSnow]

The comments on this article are enough to want to punch a wall.

UK getting more hot and more wet days – Met Office

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

The increase in the number of 'very hot days' of 30C or more has also been dramatic.

We are, quite literally, cooked.

[sundog]

I believe the run of warmest months on record ended in July. Only just though by 0.04c.

[danm]

World on track for hottest year ever, scientist warn

NEWS.SKY.COM

---

Despite the UK experiencing its coolest summer since 2015, temperatures were above average across much of Europe, according to the EU's climate monitoring service...

 

[WYorksWeather]

 danm Yep, 2024 clearly ahead by a considerable margin. Of course September 2023 was the most absurd month last year, so we'll almost certainly come in below that, and maybe below 2023 the rest of the year, but still enough for a comfortable record.

Here was Berkeley Earth's evaluation after July. Since August also virtually tied last year, the probability is unlikely to change much in the next update.

Quote

 

Rest of 2024

With seven months completed, 2024 will very likely be the warmest year since instrumental measurements began, moderately exceeding the record set in 2023. The first seven months of 2024 started with large anomalies, though this is expected to cool somewhat during the end of 2024. While beginning with consistent record warmth. It is typically true that the second year after an El Niño emerges is warmer than the first, though that is not guaranteed.

The statistical approach that we use, looking at conditions in recent months, now believes that 2024 has a 96% chance of being warmer than 2023, making this outcome very likely. The ultimate outcome will depend on the magnitude and timing of a possible switch to La Niña late in 2024, and variation in other regions. However, it is essentially certain that 2024 will be no colder than the second warmest year overall.

Estimated Probability of 2024 Annual Average final rankings:

1st – 96%

2nd – 4%

3rd or lower – <1%

 

 

[WYorksWeather]

Worth reading this article by Zeke Hausfather here. Clear signals that 2024 is warmer than expected given that El Nino has now faded.

2024's unusually persistent warmth

WWW.THECLIMATEBRINK.COM

---

This year is increasingly diverging from past El Nino years.

[CryoraptorA303]

 WYorksWeather We all knew that was going to happen anyway. Anyone who tried to say that last year's massive heat spike was just down to El Nino and we'd return to something more "normal" by mid-2024 were lying to themselves. All you have to do is look at 2022, a triple Nina year, which should have been a considerably cool year globally, but was one of the warmest, even compared to recent records. Only 2020 and 2016 were warmer IIRC.

Clearly the triple La Nina and weak El Nino before that were masking a sudden increase in global temps, quite possibly initiated by the mind-numbing 2015/16 Hyper El Nino. I doubt it's entirely down to reduced sulphur emissions over the oceans either. The increase seems too much even for that. After the Hyper Nino we never went back down to pre-2014 temperatures - Even 2018, the coolest of the recent set, was above 2014. That Hyper Nino tipped something over the edge.

Edited September 11 by CryoraptorA303

[WYorksWeather]

 CryoraptorA303 This is the point that Zeke goes into in his article. It's actually hard to explain even if you add El Nino + Hunga Tonga + marine fuel desulphurisation.

We need another year or two to confirm it, but it certainly looks like James Hansen may be right, and we're pretty much already at 1.5C.

[sundog]

Been confirmed that Aug 2024 was the warmest on record  globally.