Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects

[VillagePlank]

Thanks for that Knocker. So, to summarise the underlying (linear) trend is some 0.0139degC anomaly/yr. So, all other things being equal, and extrapolating forward to the end of the century, we should expect a whopping temperature increase of - wait for it - 1.2degC. Now I'm really alarmed and scared.

 

(this is one horrendous use of statistics, by the way, but then so is using linear regression on a temperature chart)

Edited January 5, 2014 by Sparkicle

[VillagePlank]

snip

Edited January 5, 2014 by Sparkicle

[Gray-Wolf]

Oh sparks! It's like like that leaky bath-tub, the slow clogging with human hair at the plug hole leads to it overflowing...... the same with the increases in global temps. everything is in flux with increasing GHG forcings, increasing positive feedbacks, increasing potential for the planet to take onboard incoming energy and decreases in the planets ability to moderate temperature and absorb GHG's.

 

Two Statisticians lost on the top of a mountain. One pulls out the map and has a think. he turns to his companion and says " See that mountain over there?, by my analysis that's exactly where we are"....... 

[VillagePlank]

Gw - climate science *is* (mainly) applied statistics. So, thanks for that.

Edited January 6, 2014 by Sparkicle

[Gray-Wolf]

I know Sparks........ my last blast as 'Lord of Misrule', back to the norm again from sunset today (Pah!)

[BornFromTheVoid]

2013 was the 2nd warmest year on record, since 1890, according to the JMA

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/ann_wld.html

 

December appears to have been around the 11th or 12 warmest.

[Gray-Wolf]

So after only 15yrs a non ENSO year is challenging a 'Super Nino' ( largest on record) year???

 

Thank goodness we're on an alleged slowdown!!!

 

Should my thoughts on ENSO 2014 prove correct I just wonder how 2015's average will pan out?

[keithlucky]

2013 was the 2nd warmest year on record, since 1890, according to the JMA

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/ann_wld.html

 

December appears to have been around the 11th or 12 warmest.

What a joke global surface temperatures are, totally inaccurate remember what NASA said in 1990 now they ignore there own statement!http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/122096963

Edited January 7, 2014 by keithlucky

[knocker]

I see the sea temps in the Central Pacific have risen 8 degrees C in four months.

[BornFromTheVoid]

What a joke global surface temperatures are, totally inaccurate remember what NASA said in 1990 now they ignore there own statement!http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/122096963

 

Unfortunately Keith, and to the disappointment of fake sceptics world over, the satellite record was shown to have numerous flaws which produced a cool bias.

Once this was fixed, it was very much in line with the surface warming. Infact, since 1998, the UAH satellite record (run by Dr Christy and Dr Spencer, two prominent "sceptics") has had a stronger warming trend than most surface station records.

[stewfox]

Unfortunately Keith, and to the disappointment of fake sceptics world over, the satellite record was shown to have numerous flaws which produced a cool bias.

Once this was fixed, it was very much in line with the surface warming. Infact, since 1998, the UAH satellite record (run by Dr Christy and Dr Spencer, two prominent "sceptics") has had a stronger warming trend than most surface station records.

 

What satellites were JMA using in 1890 ??

[BornFromTheVoid]

What satellites were JMA using in 1890 ??

 

I think you have the answer for that yourself Stew!

[Gray-Wolf]

One has to wonder how KL views Science? The fact that Nasa Now understands more than it did in 1990 makes them untrustworthy???

 

How the hell does that make any type of sense?

 

Do we just pick a stance (like Denialism) and then defend it unwaveringly no matter what proofs are brought before you?

 

What type of folk would think this reasonable? (apart from creationists?) 

[BornFromTheVoid]

2014 kicks of the year with the joint 6th warmest January on record at +0.291C.

 

The top 10

 

2010:... 0.56

2013:... 0.5

1998:... 0.47

2007:... 0.42

2005:... 0.31

2014:... 0.29

2003:... 0.29

2002:... 0.2

2006:... 0.2

2004:... 0.19

 

Here's the trend for the ENSO 3.4 anomaly (averaged over the 5 month from Sept to Jan to include the lag) and January global surface air temperature.

 

 

 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

I think this really belongs in here?

 

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2014/20140121_Temperature2013.pdf

 

Esp. the look at the impacts of particulate/sulphate pollution on temps at the moment and also the section on El Nino ( and the possibilities of 2014 seeing one form?)

[BornFromTheVoid]

JMA have released their January data, and have 2014 as the 5th warmest on record at +0.18C above the 81-10 average. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/jan_wld.html

 

[drgl]

A whole +0.18C above the 81-10 average. Wow.  .18 of a degree. Doomed, all doomed.

[knocker]

A whole +0.18C above the 81-10 average. Wow.  .18 of a degree. Doomed, all doomed.

 

I note your usual stunning scientific input but given Mr Lawson and others have the temp flatlining or even falling for a variable X number years quite significant.

Edited February 14, 2014 by knocker

[drgl]

It doesn't need anything scientific. I mean look at the graph you have to post up to make it look dramatic. All the way back to 1890.

 

As the scale doesn't have every single year it looks like it was well below that around 2008?

 

[knocker]

Any particular reason you a showing a graph of the Greenland Dome. Your point?

Edited February 14, 2014 by knocker

[drgl]

Simple. It demonstrates how a graph can be made to look dramatic. Why does the graph you posted have 0.5 degree increments when we are talking about fractions of that? Does it look so dramatic then? Why not have 0.1 degree increments? Why go back to 1890 when we are talking about the '81 - '10 average. And why only up to '10 on the average? Last time I checked it's 2014, what happened to '11,'12 & '13 Do they make it less dramatic when taken into account (there seems to be some annoying dips in those years to my eyes).

[knocker]

Simple. It demonstrates how a graph can be made to look dramatic. Why does the graph you posted have 0.5 degree increments when we are talking about fractions of that?

 

Actually it isn't. It was used to disprove some points made by SS and is quite idiotic. I haven't posted any graphs!!!!

[drgl]

Sorry BFTV, down side of working while posting. I'm sure you knew which graph I was referring to!! I don't follow your answer "actually it isn't" in reply to :-

 

Edited for typo's. On phone!

 

 

 

Simple. It demonstrates how a graph can be made to look dramatic. Why does the graph you(meant BFTV) posted have 0.5 degree increments when we are talking about fractions of that?

Edited February 14, 2014 by drgl

[drgl]

No reply?

[BornFromTheVoid]

No reply?

 

It's Valentines day, some people have lives outside of netweather...

 

Anywho best you ask the Japanese Meteorological Institute about any complaints you have regarding their graphs, I'm afraid I cannot speak on their behalf.

 

NASA dataset is out now too, joint 2nd warmest January on the GISS LOTI dataset, with an anomaly of 0.72C above the 51-80 average.

 

Edited February 15, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid