Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects

[BornFromTheVoid]

4th warmest March and 7th warmest year to date, according to NCDC.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/3

[BornFromTheVoid]

3rd warmest April on the NCEP reanalysis data.

 

 

5th warmest year to date.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

At +0.73 (according to the table data) April was the 2nd warmest on record according to the GISS.

 

 

This makes the year to date the joint 5th warmest, and the last 12 months the joint 3rd warmest.

Even if the next 8 months only matched those of last year, we'd still have the joint 3rd warmest year on record...

[VillagePlank]

Well, of course. The climate doesn't undergo step change (unless in millenial timescales)

 

By the sheer nature of natural variability, if you have a high starting point, you are going to get record high temperatures and no record low temperatures. It doesn't actually mean anything, unless you want to say we are no longer posting years that are the warmest ever?

Edited May 13, 2014 by Sparkicle

[BornFromTheVoid]

Well, of course. The climate doesn't undergo step change (unless in millenial timescales)

 

By the sheer nature of natural variability, if you have a high starting point, you are going to get record high temperatures and no record low temperatures. It doesn't actually mean anything, unless you want to say we are no longer posting years that are the warmest ever?

 

And I suppose the big question is, what has raised us to this higher starting point?

[knocker]

GISS has posted its April estimate for global temperature anomaly, and like TempLS it showed a small change, rising from 0.70°C in February to 0.73°C in April. That's getting quite high.

 

http://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/april-giss-temp-up-by-003.html

[VillagePlank]

And I suppose the big question is, what has raised us to this higher starting point?

 

Yep: more precisely the distribution of forcings that got us here,

[VillagePlank]

And I suppose the big question is, what has raised us to this higher starting point?

 

Here's HadCrut4, monthly from 1850 to March this year.

 

Edited May 13, 2014 by Sparkicle

[knocker]

Deleted.

Edited May 13, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Nick Stokes on averages.

 

  USHCN, adjustments, averages, getting it right.

[VillagePlank]

<snip>

Edited May 14, 2014 by Sparkicle

[BornFromTheVoid]

Warmest April on record according to the JMA

 

 

 

Five Warmest Years (Anomalies)

 

1st. 2014(+0.31°C), 2nd. 1998(+0.30°C), 3rd. 2010(+0.27°C), 4th. 2005(+0.21°C), 5th. 2012,2007(+0.16°C)

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/apr_wld.html

[Gray-Wolf]

So even before we see Nino impacts we're already clocking record temps????

 

That Antarctic sea ice had better not continue it's stall or those Denier types will be running out of anything to talk about?

[stewfox]

So even before we see Nino impacts we're already clocking record temps????That Antarctic sea ice had better not continue it's stall or those Denier types will be running out of anything to talk about?

0.01c is not significant and well within natural variation. Cf 1998 and 2014. When we get 1c or 2c then it gets interesting Edited May 17, 2014 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

0.01c is not significant and well within natural variation. Cf 1998 and 2014. When we get 1c or 2c then it gets interesting

 

Luckily, we can just keep comparing to more recent averages and never reach 1 or 2C anomalies!

[be cause]

Looking toward the arctic .. has anyone noticed the ECM is forecasting a frost free basin by the end of the month ! How quickly does it become ice free ? Looks like a super El Nino is unnecessary ...

[knocker]

New data: April 2014 tied for the warmest April globally since records began in 1880

 

Global Highlights

• [*]The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for April 2014 tied with 2010 as the highest on record for the month, at 0.77°C (1.39°F) above the 20

^th century average of 13.7°C (56.7°F). [*]The global land surface temperature was 1.35°C (2.43°F) above the 20^th century average of 8.1°C (46.5°F), marking the third warmest April on record. For the ocean, the April global sea surface temperature was 0.55°C (0.99°F) above the 20^th century average of 16.0°C (60.9°F), also the third highest for April on record. [*]The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–April period (year-to-date) was 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20^th century average of 12.6°C (54.8°F), the sixth warmest such period on record.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/4

[BornFromTheVoid]

Some of the monthly data for should be out soon. Deep Octopus over on the sea ice forum reckons many of the surface based temperature series will show May 2014 as being the warmest on record (based on his analysis of the ncep daily reanalysis data, which has been very accurate in recent months).

 

Should we start achieving record warm months just a few weeks into this El Nino, it's quite likely a record warm year will follow.

[knocker]

Some of the monthly data for should be out soon. Deep Octopus over on the sea ice forum reckons many of the surface based temperature series will show May 2014 as being the warmest on record (based on his analysis of the ncep daily reanalysis data, which has been very accurate in recent months).

 

Should we start achieving record warm months just a few weeks into this El Nino, it's quite likely a record warm year will follow.

 

Agreed and perhaps the delay with the Indian monsoon and the extreme heat wave is pertinent.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yup, warmest May on record going by the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis.

 

 

2nd warmest Spring on record

 

 

3rd warmest year to date

 

 

 

Impressive considering the year so far has averaged ENSO -ve, and we haven't officially achieved an El Nino yet.

[BornFromTheVoid]

3rd warmest May on record at +0.33C (above the 81-10 average) according to the UAH satellite data, which I think makes it the 5th warmest year to date.

Edited June 10, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[BornFromTheVoid]

The warmest April on record is followed by the warmest May on record according to the JMA.

 

 

 

Five Warmest Years (Anomalies)

 

1st. 2014(+0.31°C), 2nd. 1998(+0.27°C), 3rd. 2012,2010(+0.22°C), 5th. 2013(+0.21°C)

 

 

It's also the warmest Spring on record.

 

 

 

Five Warmest Years (Anomalies)

 

1st. 2014(+0.28°C), 2nd. 2010(+0.26°C), 3rd. 1998(+0.25°C), 4th. 2002(+0.18°C), 5th. 2005(+0.17°C)

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/may_wld.html

[keithlucky]

Just a extract from a report in the 1990 from NASA and NOAA so why 24yrs later are ignoring the more accurate satellite data?

Edited June 16, 2014 by keithlucky

[BornFromTheVoid]

GISS data is out, and May was the warmest on record by quite a margin, at +0.76C.

 

 

 

Just a extract from a report in the 1990 from NASA and NOAA so why 24yrs later are ignoring the more accurate satellite data?

 

The satellite data from then was shown to be in error and has since been revised and now shows the same trend as surface stations. And just to be clear, the UAH satellite data is run by one of your own, Roy Spencer. Unless you want to claim that he's corrupting the data? Either way, satellite measurements show a similar trend to surface based ones.

 

[karyo]

So I guess the quiet sun hasn't brought the cool down that some people were expecting! 

 

Karyo