Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects

[BornFromTheVoid]

According to the JMA, June 2014 was the warmest on record.

 

 

1st. 2014(+0.32°C), 2nd. 2010(+0.26°C), 3rd. 1998(+0.25°C), 4th. 2012(+0.22°C), 5th. 2009,2005(+0.21°C)

 

 

That's 3 record warm months in a row...

[Nouska]

So I guess the quiet sun hasn't brought the cool down that some people were expecting! 

 

Karyo

 

I wouldn't be expecting a cooldown to be showing in year of the max - albeit, one that is described as a 'mini-max'.

 

According to the JMA, June 2014 was the warmest on record.

 

 

1st. 2014(+0.32°C), 2nd. 2010(+0.26°C), 3rd. 1998(+0.25°C), 4th. 2012(+0.22°C), 5th. 2009,2005(+0.21°C)

 

 

That's 3 record warm months in a row...

 

All the more notable when comparing to the climatology base period 0f '81-'10; I think some of the satellite series have older base periods.

[cheeky_monkey]

Just out of interested when was the last cooler than average month globally?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just out of interested when was the last cooler than average month globally?

 

Depends on the dataset and the average used.

With something like the UAH satellite dataset, which uses the 81-10 average, you only have to go back to February 2012.

Then with the NCDC record which uses the 20th century average, you have to go all the way back to February 1985.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The GISS LOTI data is out, and according to them, June 2014 was the 3rd warmest on record at +0.62C.

 

Top 10

1998: +0.75

2005: +0.64

2014: +0.62

2009: +0.61

2006: +0.60

2013: +0.60

2010: +0.59

2012: +0.58

2007: +0.55

2002: +0.54

 

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

 

 

Interesting to see how cold the Arctic was.

 

EDIT: Seems GISS have updated the whole dataset...

Edited July 14, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[BornFromTheVoid]

The NCDC report is now out, and, at +0.72C, June 2014 was the warmest on record according to them.

 

Of particular interest, land temperatures were only the 7th highest, but ocean temperatures had the largest positive anomaly of any month on record, amazing for ENSO neutral conditions.

 

For the ocean, the June global sea surface temperature was record warm, at 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F). This marks the first time that the monthly global ocean temperature anomaly was higher than 0.60°C (1.08°F) and surpasses the previous all-time record for any month by 0.05°C (0.09°F); the previous record of +0.59°C (1.06°F) was first set in June 1998 and tied in October 2003, July 2009, and just last month in May 2014. Similar to May, scattered sections across every major ocean basin were record warm. 

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/6

[Gray-Wolf]

What are we to expect once the natural forcings turn into ones augmenting AGW warming????

[knocker]

  TempLS global temp down 0.066°C in July

[mikeworst]

 omg Knocker, why on earth would you dare post that? You might get branded-you know.

[knocker]

Earth had its 2nd warmest July on record last month. —Japan Meteorological Agency (records since 1891) pic.twitter.com/X3sdazh2zo

[Gray-Wolf]

I think , to many, Knocks is already 'branded'???

 

After digesting the paper on the invigorated/anomalous Trades ( and its links to the warmed Atlantic) I further reiterate my ponderings above a it now appears that we might be closer to such a switch than many , posting here, would wish to imagine?

 

Both the paper ( on the strengthened Walker Cell) and the synopsis and interviews all hint at us approaching a time when the 'issues' that the record trades have brought are now close to being at an end with a possible future Nino signalling that flip ( as the Pacific reaches parity , or even a positive imbalance, with the atlantic?).

 

Could this limping on move toward Nino conditions be what we need to see the change? As the Sun heads south  the winter cooling of the atlantic has recently seemed to allow for 'parity ' in the basins and so Jan/Feb has seen westerly wind bursts along the pacific equator. should we see the same occur in 2015 then the residual warmth from the current building KW may well push Nino regions into full nino conditions in spring? This , in its turn, drives parity with the Atlantic basin over the early summer/summer months allowing for the walker Cell to slacken and the Trades fall light....... maybe even allowing for atmospheric cooperation with the Nino?.

 

This will see the warm pool increasingly fed back into the central/eastern Pacific further impacting trades and so allowing the IPO to flip Positive ( surface heating phase) and fan out into the PDO regions allowing the current positive PDO to maintain ( allowing Nino's to become more frequent).

 

All in all this would flip the position back to naturals augmenting the AGW warming and so we would see warming similar to the 80's/90's again. This time we have the issue of energy from the Arctic as we now see at least 1/3 of the basin open water over the summer months and snow melt pushed back ever further ( meaning we have more energy able to be trapped on earth rather than bounced back into space than we saw in the 80's/90's) we also have higher levels of CO2 and China committed to cleaning up it's 'dirty' coal use so reducing the dimming that occurred in the noughties?

 

We also have the prospect of the cyclical 'perfect melt storm' synoptic hitting the Arctic basin from 2017 on. This may well be the event that sees the next major plummet in ice levels ( opening up more area to the sun) and further adds into the current Jet stream anoms and so extreme 'weather' responses?

[knocker]

GISS has posted its July estimate for global temperature anomaly. It fell from 0.62°C in June to 0.52°C in July

 

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=07&year1=2014&year2=2014&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=rob

[knocker]

July 2014: Earth's 4th Warmest July on Record

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/7

[knocker]

It has not stopped.

 

http://mrooijer.wordpress.com/2014/08/28/it-has-not-stopped/

[knocker]

So what if CO2 was 2400 ppmv in the Mesozoic

 

This is a response to those who try to claim that global warming won't be so bad.  The gist of the argument is that since life thrived in the Mesozoic when CO₂ was ~2400 ppmv and temperatures 8ºC warmer, climate change isn't anything to be worried about.  Unfortunately, this argument ignores some very basic facts about biology and physics.  Here is some of what they're ignoring.

 

http://environmentalforest.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/so-what-if-co2-was-2400-ppmv-in-mesozoic.html

[knocker]

Deleted wrong thread.

Edited August 29, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

the 'hiatus' is becoming alarming.

 

Warmest Jan-Aug ever measured globally (since 1880): 2010 1998 2007 2014 (hmm.. most seem pretty recent) NASA data:

 

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt â€¦

[knocker]

 

August GISS Temp up by 0.18°C

[BornFromTheVoid]

Warmest August and summer on record according to the JMA. That also make it 4 warmest months on record out of the last 5.

 

 

The top 5 Augusts

 

1st. 2014 (+0.32°C)

2nd. 1998 (+0.27°C)

3rd. 2009 (+0.24°C)

4th. 2012 (+0.23°C)

5th. 2013 (+0.22°C)

 

Top 5 summers

 

1st. 2014 (+0.31°C)

2nd. 1998 (+0.28°C)

3rd. 2012,2010 (+0.23°C)

5th. 2013,2009 (+0.22°C)

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/sum_wld.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

NCDC also claiming warmest August on record, and by 0.05C over 1998.

 

The ocean record is quite impressive, considering we're still ENSO neutral

 

For the ocean, the August global sea surface temperature was 0.65°C (1.17°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.4°F). This record high departure from average not only beats the previous August record set in 2005 by 0.08°C (0.14°F), but also beats the previous all-time record set just two months ago in June 2014 by 0.03°C (0.05°F)

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/

[Snowyowl9]

Climate Change summit: Brazil refuses to sign UN's pledge to slow deforestation.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/climate-change-summit-brazil-refuses-to-sign-un-pledge-to-slow-deforestation-9751770.html

The Brazilian delegation claimed measures to end illegal deforestation had been drafted behind closed doors at the United Nations without its participation.

This is a good thing to stop deforestation.

Enough trees are illegally cut down.

Edited September 24, 2014 by Snowyowl9

[knocker]

 

Rising Trends

[knocker]

 

According to NASA GISS, September of 2014 saw global surface temperatures that were 0.77 C hotter than the 20th Century average. This record beats out 2005 by a rather strong 0.04 C margin and represents the 4th month in the GISS record for 2014 that was either the hottest or tied for the hottest (January, May, August and September).

 

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/10/11/antarctic-heat-heralds-hottest-september-in-the-nasa-record/

[knocker]

Update. GISS has produced a map for September, and it says the Sept temperature is 0.78°C, up from 0.70°C in August. This tracks the mesh TempLS rise from 0.628°C to 0.673°C (grid TempLS went down slightly). I expect that mesh TempLS will follow GISS more closely. I'll post the GISS comparison soon. The new number is not yet on their datafile. It's getting warm.

 

http://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/new-ideas-on-templs-reporting-mesh.html

 

GISS

 

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

[Gray-Wolf]

As I've noted throughout the year I am beginning to see a nasty trend of a non Nino year challenging for past Nino year enhanced temps. To me we see the impacts of the ocean warm now that the naturals are fading and making ready for a switch to positive?

 

What would a full blown nino year do to global temps????

 

At least we are moving away from suppressed atmospheric temp rises and so will see the chatter about 'hiatus' fade and the more serious matter of 'how hot' come back to the fore.

 

Robert scribbler muses the same: http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/

 

" Overall, three more record or near record hot months would put 2014 in serious contention for hottest year on record. A rather odd result considering we still see no El Nino and almost every recent hottest year has been spurred on by this powerful atmospheric variability driver. A record hot year in 2014 with no El Nino could well be an indication that the human forcing is beginning to over-ride natural variability and that the ENSO signal, though still very powerful, is becoming more and more muted by an increasingly substantial human heat forcing."

Edited October 12, 2014 by Gray-Wolf