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Samey Winter = Relatively Cool Year?


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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

I'd better define a Samey Winter first.  My definition is a winter where the mean CET differences between each of December, January and February with November's CET, aggregate at equal to or less than 1.5C.

This winter was a very Samey one. The difference was only  0.7C  (Dec 0.4, Jan 0.2 Feb 0.1).  Only two winters, 1936 and 2016, have been more Samey at 0.6C

There have been 13 Samey Winters in all. For each subsequent month except one, the average CET the results from a Samey Winter is over 0.5C lower than the 2000-2019 average. The exception is June, but the average here is still under 0.4C.

Looking at March to Dec the average CET following Samey Winters is 0.9C cooler than the 21C average, with the coldest hits being April and May, November and December.

So my forecast is for a cool to cold Spring, a below average summer and autumn, and a cold end to the year.  Wouldn't surprise me to see the year end up, if not below 10C then only just above it.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

Perhaps this yr we will  finally see the effects if any of the deep solar minimum???.

Perhaps more so later in the yr......??

Edited by sundog
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  • 1 month later...
Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

I think April has blown my theory of Samey winters, cool springs out of the water!!

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

I’m going for a poor summer. I said on another thread this summer will be something similar to 1980.

Will be interesting to see if this happens come August 31st lol.

There will be some brief hot spells with thunderstorms mixed in.

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