Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2022/23

[Norrance]

Not so good @Blessed Weather. No chance of change while you are there I take it? Still you can enjoy the area anyway.

My daughter is off to Tignes at the beginning of January so is hoping for some colder weather as certainly at resort level it looks like heavy rain at times this week giving heavy wet snow and slush. 

[Blessed Weather]

4 hours ago, Norrance said:

Not so good @Blessed Weather. No chance of change while you are there I take it? Still you can enjoy the area anyway.

My daughter is off to Tignes at the beginning of January so is hoping for some colder weather as certainly at resort level it looks like heavy rain at times this week giving heavy wet snow and slush. 

Sadly no change before I head home Norrance. I think we may need to be looking at January before any significant change to the present mobile westerly regime. A good northerly plunge would be great for a quick recovery of resort fortunes and I'm hoping a move of the MJO into Phase 6 next week might provide a trigger for more amplification, but taking into account the usual lag the impact won't be felt until early January.

I love skiing Tignes and have been there several times. Lots of great pistes and an easy link to/from Val D'Isere means there's more ski runs than you could shake a stick at. You'll have to post some of your daughter's pics on here.

[snowspotter]

The way the models are looking at present this ski season in Europe is looking awful. I'm off to Andorra in under two weeks and then to Austria late January . I've kind of written off Andorra as going to be thin cover and icy . Regarding Austria I'm beginning to get concerned about here now. That sodding High Pressure system over Southern Europe just won't budge and is just spreading warm air and melt across the Alps with literally no sign of snow to a decent low level forecast. Kind of despair setting in here

[DavidS]

The last two GFS runs hold some interest, albeit beyond day 10. They show the idea of the jet running on NW/SE alignment into southern Europe. This would bring lower temps and some much needed snow to the Alps, however as this forecast is almost 2 weeks away it is outside the reliable.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

We need some of the snowfall in Europe that North America got last week!

[carinthian]

21 hours ago, snowspotter said:

The way the models are looking at present this ski season in Europe is looking awful. I'm off to Andorra in under two weeks and then to Austria late January . I've kind of written off Andorra as going to be thin cover and icy . Regarding Austria I'm beginning to get concerned about here now. That sodding High Pressure system over Southern Europe just won't budge and is just spreading warm air and melt across the Alps with literally no sign of snow to a decent low level forecast. Kind of despair setting in here

Where are you ski-ing in Austria ?

C

[Typhoon John]

I am currently going to Flaine at the end of Jan but considering cancelling it if things don't look like changing.

[snowspotter]

24 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Where are you ski-ing in Austria ?

C

Ski Welt area so quite low altitude. But plenty of time I guess for things to pick up mid January onwards hopefully ! 

[carinthian]

7 hours ago, snowspotter said:

Ski Welt area so quite low altitude. But plenty of time I guess for things to pick up mid January onwards hopefully ! 

The snow conditions are currently ok above 1000m. Really need a top up soon and colder temps. The last few seasons have generally been good for many resorts across Austria. Plenty of time yet .

C

[Norrance]

On 23/12/2022 at 13:25, Blessed Weather said:

Sadly no change before I head home Norrance. I think we may need to be looking at January before any significant change to the present mobile westerly regime. A good northerly plunge would be great for a quick recovery of resort fortunes and I'm hoping a move of the MJO into Phase 6 next week might provide a trigger for more amplification, but taking into account the usual lag the impact won't be felt until early January.

I love skiing Tignes and have been there several times. Lots of great pistes and an easy link to/from Val D'Isere means there's more ski runs than you could shake a stick at. You'll have to post some of your daughter's pics on here.

Got my dates wrong. She is heading out to Tignes on the 14th Jan so a bit of time for a change in the weather though initial signs not looking great. Will get some of her photos though.
The  rest of the family are having a get together in Obergurgl at the end of the month so again looking for a change in the weather. At least both those resorts are pretty high.

[Blessed Weather]

Tbh @Norrance, I think your daughter will be fine in Tignes up at 1,810m and the family gathering at Obergurgl at the end of the month is even better placed at 1,930m. Today the Ski Club of GB are reporting 64cm at resort level and 170cm on upper pistes at Tignes. For Obergurgl it's 41cm at resort and 60cm on upper pistes. The webcams today from both resorts show conditions looking fairly good and that's despite the mild weather of the last week. So whilst low level resorts in France, Austria and Switzerland have suffered this last week and badly need new snow, things not looking too bad for your destinations.

Tignes   Obergurgl

Source:
https://www.bergfex.com/obergurgl-hochgurgl/webcams/c11728/
https://www.bergfex.com/tignes/webcams/c3817/

Edited December 28, 2022 by Blessed Weather
Links added.

[Blessed Weather]

This morning's GFS run producing exactly the synoptics that would transform the snow situation in the Alps, even for the lowest resorts. Several days of heavy snow would result from the northerly plunge with the isobars kinking as the plunge hits the Alps and resulting in a Genoa Low forming south of the mountains to ensure Italian resort are in on the action too. Perfect!

But is it just a figment of GFS's imagination? It's all long way off to have any confidence atm.

GFS 0z 29th Dec for 10th Jan:

[Typhoon John]

These would be perfect synoptics, fingers crossed the GFS is onto something!

[carinthian]

Beautiful sun rise from Zauchensee looking towards Obertauern high level ski resort. Good ski-ing conditions at altitude in mild sunny conditions.

C

[DavidS]

4 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

This morning's GFS run producing exactly the synoptics that would transform the snow situation in the Alps, even for the lowest resorts. Several days of heavy snow would result from the northerly plunge with the isobars kinking as the plunge hits the Alps and resulting in a Genoa Low forming south of the mountains to ensure Italian resort are in on the action too. Perfect!

But is it just a figment of GFS's imagination? It's all long way off to have any confidence atm.

GFS 0z 29th Dec for 10th Jan:

The GFS has been flirting with this sort of idea for a day or two and continues it with the 6z too, although the 00z looks like the best option so far. Let’s hope it continues with this theme and all of the alps can get a good pasting.

[Blessed Weather]

Over the last several days GFS has been flapping around with the signal it first spotted many days back for a snowy trough for the Alps around the 9th/10th Jan date. ECM has held steady with a similar forecast, although obviously coming in at closer range than the GFS. But good to see both major models now going for the same forecast - some welcome snow for the Alps around the 9th. For those of us booked for a trip later this month it's a very welcome outlook. Maybe we can hope for an end to this sort of horrendous headline in the Telegraph today. Extract:

Skier dies after crashing hundreds of feet down icy slope in Austria
Two others were left critically injured after separate crashes in the same spot as authorities warned of dangerous conditions

The ski season across the northern and western Alps has so far been hit by unusually warm conditions, leading authorities to warn of icy conditions and a lack of off-piste snow that would normally cushion falls. Ski resorts are also having to rely on artificial snow, which turns icy more quickly than natural snow in warm conditions.

Link (paywall): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/01/02/skier-dies-crashing-hundreds-feet-icy-slope-austria/

Here's hoping these charts verify.

GFS:  ECM:

Edited January 2, 2023 by Blessed Weather
Link added.

[Amanzi]

I hope it does verify! I'm off to Chatel on the 10th. Praying for some decent snow. 

 

 

 

 

[DavidS]

The 6z gfs shows an improving picture from around the 8th / 9th Jan, but not great before then.  Let’s hope for further improvements in the model output.

[Summer Sun]

Villars-sur-Ollon in Switzerland, using artificial snow to try and stay open

[Tills]

Hi everyone,

Supposed to be off skiing in the French Alps this Sunday. My reading of the forecasts and maps suggests there's going to be good snowfall 8-11th.

Can anyone back me up on this with charts and detailed forecasts?

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

We might need to book a trip in Norway instead for our 2nd trip!

[DavidS]

1 hour ago, Tills said:

Hi everyone,

Supposed to be off skiing in the French Alps this Sunday. My reading of the forecasts and maps suggests there's going to be good snowfall 8-11th.

Can anyone back me up on this with charts and detailed forecasts?

Can’t do detailed forecasts, but snow looks likely. See below for the improving situation. Charts from 7th to 10th Jan from the 00z GFS

[Tills]

Thanks so much David. That's encouraging!

[alr1970]

I'm in the Three Valleys this week and must pistes are open, thanks to altitude, the pre-Xmas snowfall and extensive snowmaking. But last night was the first since we arrived on Saturday that the temp has gone below freezing at 1850m where we're staying in Mottaret. There's extensive ice and very hard snow where the surface has softened during the day. Big piles of slush are the order of the afternoon anywhere down low.

But this isn't all that unusual for very early in the season, I've skied in rain at this time of year at this altitude, at least it's not like that!

[chilly milly]

1 hour ago, alr1970 said:

I'm in the Three Valleys this week and must pistes are open, thanks to altitude, the pre-Xmas snowfall and extensive snowmaking. But last night was the first since we arrived on Saturday that the temp has gone below freezing at 1850m where we're staying in Mottaret. There's extensive ice and very hard snow where the surface has softened during the day. Big piles of slush are the order of the afternoon anywhere down low.

But this isn't all that unusual for very early in the season, I've skied in rain at this time of year at this altitude, at least it's not like that!

You are not far from my work colleague who's at Les Menuires. She also says there's enough snow, but yesterday was an extremely hard day's skiing, so I expect that's the change in temp as you mention above.