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European Winter Weather Information?


STRiZZY

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Posted
  • Location: Poland
  • Weather Preferences: Tropical and Winter
  • Location: Poland

Hi all! Brand new to the forum and to Europe (Poland).  I am from the states and over there I understand quite a bit about meteorology and tropical weather/winter weather in the states. When it comes to winter storms I understand what set-ups are best (synoptically speaking) for winter weather to occur. I can look at various maps and get a sense of what is going on. I know the benchmarks for different types of storms (Clipper systems, Miller A,B/Nor'easters) etc. 

 

However I know nothing about European winter weather. In fact when I look at the ECMWF or GFS for Europe it is like nothing make sense. So much going on, cyclones here and there, snow to the south of a system while rain to the north. 

Is there a source(s) (books, blogs, YouTube) for information that can help me understand what needs to occur synoptically for winter storms in Europe (Western, Central and Eastern)? All I have been able to gather from Poles is that the true frigid air comes from Russia (The Beast From The East) they call it "continental cold". In the states all of our cold shots come from the north, so it is a bit strange to think of easterlies as being cold. 

Also in the states, we have names for certain winter storms that form in particular ways and take distinct tracks (mainly for the east coast), is there anything similar to this in Europe (pics included)? When I look at the weather models everything just seems so chaotic here I am kind of doubting that you have anything as consistent happening. 

Anyway, I am happy I found this forum and I can't wait to learn more about the European Winter as Poland is home for now. 

Thanks!

Miller A.jpg

Miller B.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Poland
  • Weather Preferences: Tropical and Winter
  • Location: Poland
Just now, Paul said:

Welcome to the community @STRiZZY - the learning and research area is certainly a good place to start:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/learning/

Thank you Paul! Sorry I missed that, it is exactly what I was looking for. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

Welcome on board @STRiZZY. Another thread that might be worth you looking at is the Worldwide Mountain & Snowsports Discussion thread as many of us discuss upcoming weather patterns needed for cold and snow, particularly Europe. Also, one of the forum team @J10 posts a forecast in the thread every week. Immediately below is this season's new thread, and below that the previous season.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Poland
  • Weather Preferences: Tropical and Winter
  • Location: Poland
46 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Welcome on board @STRiZZY. Another thread that might be worth you looking at is the Worldwide Mountain & Snowsports Discussion thread as many of us discuss upcoming weather patterns needed for cold and snow, particularly Europe. Also, one of the forum team @J10 posts a forecast in the thread every week. Immediately below is this season's new thread, and below that the previous season.

 

Thank you very much

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Posted
  • Location: Poland
  • Weather Preferences: Tropical and Winter
  • Location: Poland

@Blessed Weather After going over the information on UK Winter setups, I can see how with a Scandi High this could result in snow for the UK. What about central Europe? Where would the precipitation come from in such a scenario?   

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
1 hour ago, STRiZZY said:

@Blessed Weather After going over the information on UK Winter setups, I can see how with a Scandi High this could result in snow for the UK. What about central Europe? Where would the precipitation come from in such a scenario?   

I've found a very interesting research paper for you that will hopefully give you info on the synoptic setups that bring snow to Poland:

Heavy snow in Polish–German lowlands – Large-scale synoptic reasons and economic impacts
Abstract: Large-scale synoptic conditions and economic impact of heavy snow in Polish–German lowlands were analysed. During intense snowfalls, negative anomalies of sea level pressure (SLP) and 500 hPa level appear over central Europe, resulting in a low pressure system. Snow cover persistence is possible under positive anomalies of SLP over the majority of the continent, except for its south western part where weak negative anomalies are observed.

Link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094713000273

I've not studied it in detail, but it seems to major on the Iceland/Scandinavia High and southern Europe Low setup, so very cold easterly flow. Here's a pic from the paper:

418030814_SynopticsetupPolandsnow.thumb.jpg.678fb97c266c98d0aac90a54e370a7a7.jpg

But I believe there's another important setup so I've produced a quick diagram, namely High around the UK and Low to near Scandinavia and the Baltic Sea. This drives very cold Polar air down from the north with potential for fronts or disturbances in the flow bringing snowfall.

1510434830_SynopticsetupEuropesnow.thumb.jpg.12cdd7077b757df1ab496285f460efa8.jpg

Finally, scroll down to the references listed in the above paper as it refers to several very interesting other sources of info for you. Just paste the titles into Google and hopefully you'll locate the full paper.

Help this helps. I'll also mention another member who lives in Slovakia. @jules216 are you able to help further?

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
5 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

I've found a very interesting research paper for you that will hopefully give you info on the synoptic setups that bring snow to Poland:

Heavy snow in Polish–German lowlands – Large-scale synoptic reasons and economic impacts
Abstract: Large-scale synoptic conditions and economic impact of heavy snow in Polish–German lowlands were analysed. During intense snowfalls, negative anomalies of sea level pressure (SLP) and 500 hPa level appear over central Europe, resulting in a low pressure system. Snow cover persistence is possible under positive anomalies of SLP over the majority of the continent, except for its south western part where weak negative anomalies are observed.

Link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094713000273

I've not studied it in detail, but it seems to major on the Iceland/Scandinavia High and southern Europe Low setup, so very cold easterly flow. Here's a pic from the paper:

418030814_SynopticsetupPolandsnow.thumb.jpg.678fb97c266c98d0aac90a54e370a7a7.jpg

But I believe there's another important setup so I've produced a quick diagram, namely High around the UK and Low to near Scandinavia and the Baltic Sea. This drives very cold Polar air down from the north with potential for fronts or disturbances in the flow bringing snowfall.

1510434830_SynopticsetupEuropesnow.thumb.jpg.12cdd7077b757df1ab496285f460efa8.jpg

Finally, scroll down to the references listed in the above paper as it refers to several very interesting other sources of info for you. Just paste the titles into Google and hopefully you'll locate the full paper.

Help this helps. I'll also mention another member who lives in Slovakia. @jules216 are you able to help further?

Thanks Malcolm, I suppose there is one difference between Poland and Slovakia and those are Tatra Mountains. So for Poland I believe the best scenario is a UK/Iceland high and deep trough near Baltics that can dive as south as possible with very low dam values. You in Poland dont suffer from Tatra mountains shadow like me south of them. It is almost like Alps where southern Alps get nothing from polar north westerly yet northern Alps get burried. I will illustrate probably the best snowfalls I ve got in recent memory. Now you might have got the Tatra shadow when the snow came from southerly/south easterly direction. Those were years of 1984,1987,1999x2  

See the similarity with low pressure hanging around Black Sea? Those are rare as hens teeth, but because I am shadowed by Tatras I need an easterly,south easterly even southerly trajectory. In Poland for you the best would be polar NW/N or NE winds. 

archives-1984-1-25-12-0.png

archives-1987-1-12-12-0.png

archives-1999-2-11-0-0.png

archives-1999-11-24-0-0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Poland
  • Weather Preferences: Tropical and Winter
  • Location: Poland
39 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

I've found a very interesting research paper for you that will hopefully give you info on the synoptic setups that bring snow to Poland:

Heavy snow in Polish–German lowlands – Large-scale synoptic reasons and economic impacts
Abstract: Large-scale synoptic conditions and economic impact of heavy snow in Polish–German lowlands were analysed. During intense snowfalls, negative anomalies of sea level pressure (SLP) and 500 hPa level appear over central Europe, resulting in a low pressure system. Snow cover persistence is possible under positive anomalies of SLP over the majority of the continent, except for its south western part where weak negative anomalies are observed.

Link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094713000273

I've not studied it in detail, but it seems to major on the Iceland/Scandinavia High and southern Europe Low setup, so very cold easterly flow. Here's a pic from the paper:

418030814_SynopticsetupPolandsnow.thumb.jpg.678fb97c266c98d0aac90a54e370a7a7.jpg

But I believe there's another important setup so I've produced a quick diagram, namely High around the UK and Low to near Scandinavia and the Baltic Sea. This drives very cold Polar air down from the north with potential for fronts or disturbances in the flow bringing snowfall.

1510434830_SynopticsetupEuropesnow.thumb.jpg.12cdd7077b757df1ab496285f460efa8.jpg

Finally, scroll down to the references listed in the above paper as it refers to several very interesting other sources of info for you. Just paste the titles into Google and hopefully you'll locate the full paper.

Help this helps. I'll also mention another member who lives in Slovakia. @jules216 are you able to help further?

 

20 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Thanks Malcolm, I suppose there is one difference between Poland and Slovakia and those are Tatra Mountains. So for Poland I believe the best scenario is a UK/Iceland high and deep trough near Baltics that can dive as south as possible with very low dam values. You in Poland dont suffer from Tatra mountains shadow like me south of them. It is almost like Alps where southern Alps get nothing from polar north westerly yet northern Alps get burried. I will illustrate probably the best snowfalls I ve got in recent memory. Now you might have got the Tatra shadow when the snow came from southerly/south easterly direction. Those were years of 1984,1987,1999x2  

See the similarity with low pressure hanging around Black Sea? Those are rare as hens teeth, but because I am shadowed by Tatras I need an easterly,south easterly even southerly trajectory. In Poland for you the best would be polar NW/N or NE winds. 

archives-1984-1-25-12-0.png

archives-1987-1-12-12-0.png

archives-1999-2-11-0-0.png

archives-1999-11-24-0-0.png

Wow thank you all so much! Starting to understand European winter a bit better. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
1 hour ago, jules216 said:

Thanks Malcolm, I suppose there is one difference between Poland and Slovakia and those are Tatra Mountains. So for Poland I believe the best scenario is a UK/Iceland high and deep trough near Baltics that can dive as south as possible with very low dam values. You in Poland dont suffer from Tatra mountains shadow like me south of them. It is almost like Alps where southern Alps get nothing from polar north westerly yet northern Alps get burried. I will illustrate probably the best snowfalls I ve got in recent memory. Now you might have got the Tatra shadow when the snow came from southerly/south easterly direction. Those were years of 1984,1987,1999x2  

See the similarity with low pressure hanging around Black Sea? Those are rare as hens teeth, but because I am shadowed by Tatras I need an easterly,south easterly even southerly trajectory. In Poland for you the best would be polar NW/N or NE winds. 

archives-1984-1-25-12-0.png

archives-1987-1-12-12-0.png

archives-1999-2-11-0-0.png

archives-1999-11-24-0-0.png

Brilliant. Thanks Jules. I've learnt something too.

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

@STRiZZY GFS last night threw out a good example of the synoptic pattern needed for a northerly plunge of cold/snow into Central Europe. (I did a diagram further up, and now here's a real chart). 

18z 06 Dec for 21st Dec: 1853031435_Strizzyeg2GFS18z06Dec.thumb.png.eaf35cc967a48837a368828d392be887.png

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Posted
  • Location: Poland
  • Weather Preferences: Tropical and Winter
  • Location: Poland
56 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

@STRiZZY GFS last night threw out a good example of the synoptic pattern needed for a northerly plunge of cold/snow into Central Europe. (I did a diagram further up, and now here's a real chart). 

18z 06 Dec for 21st Dec: 1853031435_Strizzyeg2GFS18z06Dec.thumb.png.eaf35cc967a48837a368828d392be887.png

Yes! As soon as I saw the model I said that’s exactly the diagram @Blessed Weather drew up last week! 
 

Let’s hope something similar comes to fruition.

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Posted
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Arendal, Norway

Where in Poland?

Keep in mind that there is huge difference between South/North of Poland. Probably they need different set ups.

Also although it is usually cold, it is also dry during the winter (for example in Warsaw). So you cannot expect the same winter storms as in the US where they "feed" from the warm waters of Gulf of Mexico and you get those intense storms with abundant precipitation for thousands of kilometres of land.

Best place for snow is Southern Poland (like Zakopane for example) where Tatras "block" the moisture and orographic lift provides the opportunity for more snow than the rest of the country

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Posted
  • Location: Poland
  • Weather Preferences: Tropical and Winter
  • Location: Poland
9 minutes ago, topo said:

Where in Poland?

Keep in mind that there is huge difference between South/North of Poland. Probably they need different set ups.

Also although it is usually cold, it is also dry during the winter (for example in Warsaw). So you cannot expect the same winter storms as in the US where they "feed" from the warm waters of Gulf of Mexico and you get those intense storms with abundant precipitation for thousands of kilometres of land.

Best place for snow is Southern Poland (like Zakopane for example) where Tatras "block" the moisture and orographic lift provides the opportunity for more snow than the rest of the country

Sorry I didn’t specify, Gorzow Wielkopolski, which is in between Berlin and Poznan. So a pretty lack luster area for snowfall. Especially the last decade. 
 

That makes sense about the Gulf can provide a moisture flow that Central Europe would have no chance of seeing. However; I was wondering if any intense cyclones formed over the Baltic and dived south? 

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Posted
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Arendal, Norway

Intense no. But probably northern Poland can get benefited when low pressure systems moves over Baltic. Northern winds can cause sea effect snow from the Baltic.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
4 hours ago, STRiZZY said:

Sorry I didn’t specify, Gorzow Wielkopolski, which is in between Berlin and Poznan. So a pretty lack luster area for snowfall. Especially the last decade. 
 

That makes sense about the Gulf can provide a moisture flow that Central Europe would have no chance of seeing. However; I was wondering if any intense cyclones formed over the Baltic and dived south? 

Proximity to mountains can be good as it enhances precipitation rate ideally under north westerly which is rich in moisture of North sea. Those showers can easily persist in to central Europe and can be enhance by mountains/hills close by. Recent example being 15th January 2019 in North west of Slovakia easily could rival those Alpine pictures or NE USA streamers, with 1.5m can fall in few days and temperatures can fall under -30C

archives-2019-1-15-0-0.png

sneh-kalamita-makov-clanokW.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Poland
  • Weather Preferences: Tropical and Winter
  • Location: Poland
39 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Proximity to mountains can be good as it enhances precipitation rate ideally under north westerly which is rich in moisture of North sea. Those showers can easily persist in to central Europe and can be enhance by mountains/hills close by. Recent example being 15th January 2019 in North west of Slovakia easily could rival those Alpine pictures or NE USA streamers, with 1.5m can fall in few days and temperatures can fall under -30C

archives-2019-1-15-0-0.png

sneh-kalamita-makov-clanokW.jpg

That is awesome. I always wondered if Europe, or other places in the world for that matter, received what is known in the US as "Lake Effect Snow". You wouldn't happen to know where I can find a radar loop of that event from Jan 19' do you? 

I remember when I lived in the mountains of West Virginia, USA (around 200mi from lake Erie). Our forecast one night was for light snow (from Erie vis lake effect) with little to no snow accumulation.

Well we got extremely lucky and got some enhancement from the terrain and ended up with 8 inches that night. Still to this day the most unexpected snowfall I have ever witnessed.  

Where I am at in Poland is about 125ish km from the Baltic. I would assume under the right conditions Sea Effect Snow would be possible. In fact at 300hr on the 18z GFS run last night there appeared to be some streamers coming in off the Baltic right over my location. You can also also see the orographic lift in southern Poland with a strong NNE wind. 

 

sea_effect_snow.jpg

Edited by STRiZZY
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Posted
  • Location: Poland
  • Weather Preferences: Tropical and Winter
  • Location: Poland
3 minutes ago, STRiZZY said:

That is awesome. I always wondered if Europe, or other places in the world for that matter, received what is known in the US as "Lake Effect Snow". You wouldn't happen to know where I can find a radar loop of that event from Jan 19' do you? 

I remember when I lived in the mountains of West Virginia, USA (around 200mi from lake Erie). Our forecast one night was for light snow (from Erie vis lake effect) with little to no snow accumulation.

Well we got extremely lucky and got some enhancement from the terrain and ended up with 8 inches that night. Still to this day the most unexpected snowfall I have ever witnessed.  

Where I am at in Poland is about 125ish km from the Baltic. I would assume under the right conditions Sea Effect Snow would be possible. In fact at 300hr on the 18z GFS run last night there appeared to be some streamers coming in off the Baltic right over my location. You can also also see the orographic lift in southern Poland with a strong NNE wind. 

 

sea_effect_snow.jpg

Actually a little latter on in the run is probably an even better example . 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eu_fh330-384.gif

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