South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Blessed Weather]

A new thread to continue discussing the weather and how it impacts us here in the SE and EA.

There's a growing chance of significant snow for our Region in a week's time with the models starting to firm up on the likely synoptics. With these forecasts still 6 or 7 days away changes are possible so we can't assume it's in the bag, but here's the forecasts from the top models showing the similarities and possibly commencement of snow:

GFS late Saturday into Sunday

UKMO late Sunday into Monday

ECM late Sunday into Monday

Charts: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/

With it likely to get very busy in here can I ask we please keep discussions friendly, respectful and generally weather related.

[NewEra21]

Yes these charts are still just out of the reliable timeframe and ideally you'd want the cold initially a touch further south, but they're becoming within touching distance....

Precip and snow depth charts just for fun at this stage!

[kold weather]

Great charts BUT...

Quite a few GFS ensemble members are struggling to pull the cold air in as the LP ends up a little too far NW. Cold air circulates around us and we end up in a possibly marginal situation.

Worth a watch, its a trend that is starting to gain some legs on the ensembles this suite and would be a plausible risk 

[stainesbloke]

Looks like cross model agreement for the first time, this winter. Some exciting looking charts are showing, with less chance of marginality. Looks like there’ll be tears; either of joy or because of a frigid easterly gale, or an epic toy throwing tantrum, as a week in meteorology is a long time. Am hoping for the former!

[Captain Shortwave]

Cheers Malcolm

1 hour ago, Surrey said:

Which GFS you looking at?

 

To answer this I mean the complex low over Ireland here at day 3.

 

The GFS tends to sink this southwards allowing a quicker route to a cold ENE wind whilst the others track that low through the U.K. at different speeds/trajectories. However with the ECM out there is a good consensus of cold weather developing from the end of this week, however the speed of which we develop this ENE flow varies from model to model.

[lottiekent]

Morning

I hope the snow arrives, even if for just a couple of days, with no marginality; no “it’s sleeting”, no “the radar says snow but nothing is reaching the ground” and definitely no “my dew point is above freezing” - just a good, old fashioned, heavy snow which lays for everyone and looks amazing.

In this dream scenario, councils will clear the roads nicely of course so people can get to their jobs/shopping/vaccinations.

Just once it can all come together this winter? Maybe...

In the here and now, it is 4.6c and cloudy. Have a good day everyone

Edited February 1, 2021 by lottiekent

[Blessed Weather]

9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Great charts BUT...

Quite a few GFS ensemble members are struggling to pull the cold air in as the LP ends up a little too far NW. Cold air circulates around us and we end up in a possibly marginal situation.

Worth a watch, its a trend that is starting to gain some legs on the ensembles this suite and would be a plausible risk 

Indeed Kold, there's a chance of the pattern going wrong at this range (a week out). But hopefully (for those of a cold preference) a good pointer is the GEFS ensemble mean for next Sunday 7th which indicates the majority of members are on-side for the snowy outcome:

@stainesbloke I've got both sledge and toys on standby, ready for any outcome.

 

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Indeed Kold, there's a chance of the pattern going wrong at this range (a week out). But hopefully (for those of a cold preference) a good pointer is the GEFS ensemble mean for next Sunday 7th which indicates the majority of members are on-side for the snowy outcome:

@stainesbloke I've got both sledge and toys on standby, ready for any outcome.

 

Yeah, the majority still look good, and I think we'd be mighty unlucky to have that LP sit in a poor place, but just thought for our neck of the woods it was worth highlighting since it is an option on the table.

Better to prime ourselves incase that solution gets to become a trend. The good news is typically these things evolve southwards, though I do think the GFS has a pretty good feel for the evolution based on yesterdays rock solid consistency. 

[cobbett]

Metcheck so JFF - based on GFS I believe but good to look at for my location - Farnham

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

Indeed Kold, there's a chance of the pattern going wrong at this range (a week out). But hopefully (for those of a cold preference) a good pointer is the GEFS ensemble mean for next Sunday 7th which indicates the majority of members are on-side for the snowy outcome:

@stainesbloke I've got both sledge and toys on standby, ready for any outcome.

 

Me too it will be the first meaningful fall of snow for me here 

[alexisj9]

Fingers crossed for this ending right for us, this time.

[m1chaels]

1 hour ago, cobbett said:

Metcheck so JFF - based on GFS I believe but good to look at for my location - Farnham

Obviously only 'indicative' at this point but are the depths quoted in mm of rain or are they snow depths?

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Fingers crossed for this ending right for us, this time.

It's sure looking good, H! Anywho, fresh winds, driving snow and -1C will do me fine... I really cannae see the point of -6C!

[SLEETY]

When it's safe to order the sledges .Need another 24 hours at least .I have seen easterlies go wrong at 96 hours before

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

It's sure looking good, H! Anywho, fresh winds, driving snow and -1C will do me fine... I really cannae see the point of -6C!

Agreed. But having been burnt too many times before, i think i'd give it another 48 hours before getting too excited.

Remember, for us in the south east, what can go wrong generally does go wrong.

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

It's sure looking good, H! Anywho, fresh winds, driving snow and -1C will do me fine... I really cannae see the point of -6C!

I can't remember what minus 27 feels like, but if I'm honest, I don't think I want too.

[bluebell]

13 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I can't remember what minus 27 feels like, but if I'm honest, I don't think I want too.

Crikey me neither, unless I had some Eskimo furs to don!

[PiscesStar]

GET YOUR THERMALS OUT.... LTIME TO ORDER SLEDGES AND SHOVELS HA HA  

[moogyboobles]

Beginning of every week my hopes are raised for the end of the week... it's properly trolling me now! 

Edited February 1, 2021 by moogyboobles

[Speedbird]

9 minutes ago, moogyboobles said:

Beginning of every week my hopes are raised for the end of the week... it's properly trolling me now! 

GFS 06z now throwing a wobbly.

This is far from a done deal.

[Tom Montalbano]

Morning all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

Certainly some happy Bunnies in the Model Thread, earlier this Morning after those 00z Runs.

But the GFS 06z Run, seems to have punctured the euphoria, somewhat.

As was stated on the previous Thread, it seems that the MeteoGroup extended Forecast, is based on the 00z ECM Run.

MeteoGroup's Weather for the Week ahead, is updated between 5 and 6 PM.

If that suggestion above is correct, expect Tonight's update and final extended offering to look like the following:

   00z ECM (t240) Thurs. 11th Feb.

An Atlantic Low, disrupting South-Eastwards.

Regards,

Tom. 

[kold weather]

3 hours ago, kold weather said:

Great charts BUT...

Quite a few GFS ensemble members are struggling to pull the cold air in as the LP ends up a little too far NW. Cold air circulates around us and we end up in a possibly marginal situation.

Worth a watch, its a trend that is starting to gain some legs on the ensembles this suite and would be a plausible risk 

I will quote myself from earlier this morning regarding the 06z gfs.

It was definitely showing on the 00z GFS ensembles.

Icon also looks iffy...

[Blazerblue]

Need to get through the next few days of whats looks like another load of rain before thinking about snow. Another flooded week on the horizon unfortunately

[Sparky68]

MAD thread everytime.....

[cobbett]

1 hour ago, m1chaels said:

Obviously only 'indicative' at this point but are the depths quoted in mm of rain or are they snow depths?

I think thats snow amount for the specified time period