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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl
    1 minute ago, Tornadotitan said:

    Decisions Decisions will I need a sledge or a boat at the weekend

    Boat, you know it's all going to go belly up, it always does for us, you could run every model a thousand times, and every model run, bar 1, will show cold, snow galore, but that 1 run showing rain, will be the right 1 lol

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    3 minutes ago, snowrye said:

    Boat, you know it's all going to go belly up, it always does for us, you could run every model a thousand times, and every model run, bar 1, will show cold, snow galore, but that 1 run showing rain, will be the right 1 lol

    Think I will agree this time,my fingers have been burnt so many times so the boat it is ⛵.

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    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

    I see GFS 6Z has started it's big downgrade  Wed/Thurs will be the best time to firm up the models for this weekend. Fingers crossed ❄️

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    48 minutes ago, Blazerblue said:

    Need to get through the next few days of whats looks like another load of rain before thinking about snow. Another flooded week on the horizon unfortunately

    The unfortunate thing is, if it does get cold and snowy, it won't help with the flooding issue, the ice and snow has to melt, and most likely rain will be doing that, so flooding will only get even worse.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

    When it's safe to order the sledges .Need another 24 hours at least .I have seen easterlies go wrong at 96 hours before

    I remember on one occasion it went bust at just 48 hours out . Every forecast had the easterly and it changed overnight and it was gone , can’t remember the year though. Anyway let’s hope that’s not the case this year , We have a real chance of some real noteworthy weather . 

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London (60m ASL)
  • Location: SE London (60m ASL)
    7 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

    Is tit me or the models look terrible atm? for South East I mean.

    They certainly don’t look terrible at all, the chance is still there for a freeze up down here and it only takes slight shifts in positioning to make or break. Granted I’d feel safer in Durham than London for this, but it’s certainly not terrible, models are still working it out

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    4 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

    Is tit me or the models look terrible atm? for South East I mean.

    Still to early to say, the first low might go to far north, but something could still set up afterwards, let's see what happens, and fingers crossed, the 0z GFS was correct with the placing of the first low, although the others bought something in a day later. Who knows what the twelve z will show.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Looking forward to the 12z Runs. Could be a notable cold spell for the SE, despite all the overreaction in the mad thread to one gfs run which was a mild run in the ensemble, and won't verify,  bit like ecm and all the mild runs it was showing till today, and none of them verified either. 

    Expect a firming up on the cold weather later. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire

    When I have time I occasionally pick a point in the future and see how the models (operational) change as we near that time. I have 13:00 on 6th February saved. So 144 hours from 12z yesterday and will compare them to 120 hours from 12z today and so on during the week. 

    Just my own way of considering things but I can see why people enjoy reacting to everything.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
    1 hour ago, Tornadotitan said:

    Decisions Decisions will I need a sledge or a boat at the weekend

    Ah where’s the imagination... Why not an amphibious sledge.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    16 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Looking forward to the 12z Runs. Could be a notable cold spell for the SE, despite all the overreaction in the mad thread to one gfs run which was a mild run in the ensemble, and won't verify,  bit like ecm and all the mild runs it was showing till today, and none of them verified either. 

    Expect a firming up on the cold weather later. 

    Hope you are right because if the trend from 06z were to continue, I think the fat lady would be stage left, ready to enter. For our region at least

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    Just now, Stu_London said:

    Hope you are right because if the trend from 06z were to continue, I think the fat lady would be stage left, ready to enter. For our region at least

    Then both ukmo and ecm would both have to wrong for gfs to verify, can't see that, but we will know  in about 4 hours! 

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    Posted
  • Location: N Kent. Medway
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: N Kent. Medway

    Good afternoon. I did enjoy seeing the 00z having a real snow lovers dream for the weekend. And given how previous weekends have gone, I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up being cold rain / sleet once more (saves getting my hope dashed). I'm also not going to buy into the idea until its showing on Fridays runs.

    I do wonder though, is it worth just using the 00/12z runs? My understanding is that these datasets have more input data than the 6z/18z. Correct me if I'm wrong by all means!

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

    Then both ukmo and ecm would both have to wrong for gfs to verify, can't see that, but we will know  in about 4 hours! 

    by trend continuing I would expect those models to start to move towards that sort of solution anyway. ECM has only been only been on board one run and has been flip-flopping like a fish out of water, so yet another change would not be the greatest surprise. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    Just now, UKSnakey said:

    Good afternoon. I did enjoy seeing the 00z having a real snow lovers dream for the weekend. And given how previous weekends have gone, I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up being cold rain / sleet once more (saves getting my hope dashed). I'm also not going to buy into the idea until its showing on Fridays runs.

    I do wonder though, is it worth just using the 00/12z runs? My understanding is that these datasets have more input data than the 6z/18z. Correct me if I'm wrong by all means!

    I thought it might be different datapoints as opposed to any significantly inferior data.

    Comparing daily runs (0z, to 0z next day), rather than inter-day runs (0z to 06z) is not a bad idea for longer term trends. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Halesworth, Suffolk
  • Location: Halesworth, Suffolk
    17 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

    Ah where’s the imagination... Why not an amphibious sledge.  

    The one thing the top gear boys never made amphibious

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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

    Premature to call the easterly nailed after one set of runs being in broad agreement. 

    If the bookies offered odds on model output, I'd have had a sly tender on at least one of the 12z suite breaking rank again today. 

    When we see divergence toward a less extreme solution, for me it's a sign we'll probably end up with a middle ground. 

    For all it's faults, pretty sure we've had plenty of occasions where GFS has been the first to sniff a pattern, then first to drop it when we finally get agreement. Then we end up with a slow convergence of the extremes it churns out across all the models. 

    Purely anecdotal and unscientific, but still... 

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    2 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

    Premature to call the easterly nailed after one set of runs being in broad agreement. 

    If the bookies offered odds on model output, I'd have had a sly tender on at least one of the 12z suite breaking rank again today. 

    When we see divergence toward a less extreme solution, for me it's a sign we'll probably end up with a middle ground. 

    For all it's faults, pretty sure we've had plenty of occasions where GFS has been the first to sniff a pattern, then first to drop it when we finally get agreement. Then we end up with a slow convergence of the extremes it churns out across all the models. 

    Purely anecdotal and unscientific, but still... 

    a south easterly 5 degrees?

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    Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
    timessquare-social.jpg
    WWW.EARTHCAM.COM

    EarthCam presents an extensive collection of live webcams, featuring the most exciting views of New York City's famous Times Square. For the past century, Times Square has been a...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.

    A 'wee beastie' would be fun, of course, but it's all still very confused.  Hope it's not off-topic to recount that a few days ago, the BBC forecast for many London and SE stations (north and south of the city) was showing 10C+ for Tuesday to Thursday this week, which still looks to be likely, but was also linking to a Met Office weather warning of snow for London on those days! 

    Meanwhile, in happier times, your 59 year-old correspondent enjoyed the 24th January fall...!

     

    Screenshot 2021-01-29 at 13.35.02.png

    Screenshot 2021-02-01 at 13.45.48.png

    Edited by Ian Docwra
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    Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
    19 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:
    timessquare-social.jpg
    WWW.EARTHCAM.COM

    EarthCam presents an extensive collection of live webcams, featuring the most exciting views of New York City's famous Times Square. For the past century, Times Square has been a...

     

    Yes I think a few people are talking about this in the World thread. They can get some brutal cold as many know. 

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