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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Nairn, Highlands
  • Weather Preferences: The colder the better
  • Location: Nairn, Highlands
    7 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

    Legs it to mod thread to see snow charts...

    Enjoy, they are bordering on sensational for our little corner

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    Posted
  • Location: Romford, Essex
  • Location: Romford, Essex

    Dont lose hope and don't get too excited if GFS flips to something less crazy than what currently throws. I consider METO update to be very promising for a prolonged cold spell, unless I am getting super excited. Don't expect METO to say one week in advance that it is going to snow everywhere...the fact they mention wintry hazards is enough to indicate what they expect. Hopefully it stays intact for the next few days and we shall see!

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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, (Very) East London
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, sun and snow.
  • Location: Upminster, (Very) East London

    I know it's naughty to get excited about Op runs. 

    But if anybody fancies a bit of weather porn, I'd recommend the latest run from  the GFS

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    Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton

    yes i doubt the GFS 12Z  for our corner could get any better , sadly its 144 hrs and ive seen easterly at 72hr downgraded to non events here at SE corner.

    Its all about the track of the low and we already had one warning shot from the GFS 6z early so expect more rollacaster ride , but if the 12z landed then my god that would prob beat 2010/2009 in this location and you prob have to go back 30 years to 1991 although 850 are no where as cold this time

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    Posted
  • Location: N Kent. Medway
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: N Kent. Medway

    Good afternoon. Viewing the MOD, and from what I've seen on the METO week ahead on YouTube, it would appear to my untrained eye that the GEM is the closest outcome if the METO went on to the weekend. However, all those posts are a pleasing sight. I hear 1987 mentioned

    But overall, again based on MOD posts - UKMO, GFS, GEM appear to be in general agreement? Cross model agreement would strengthen the chance of a forecast verifying as I understand.  

    What time does the ECM roll out please? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms in summer, cold/snow in winter
  • Location: Herne, Kent

    Does anyone know if these images are prone to ignoring Thanet and the North East coast of Kent for snow depths or could there be a legitimate reason for this? 

    I know the temps are often a couple of degrees higher than further west and south but surely in this instance with low 850s and DPs this is unlikely to be accurate.

      198-780UK.GIF.73a23996acb41313832780541b 

     

     

    Edited by East Kent Snow Desert
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    Posted
  • Location: Epsom
  • Location: Epsom
    14 minutes ago, East Kent Snow Desert said:

    Does anyone know if these images are prone to ignoring Thanet and the North East coast of Kent for snow depths or could there be a legitimate reason for this? 

    I know the temps are often a couple of degrees higher than further west and south but surely in this instance with low 850s and DPs this is unlikely to be accurate.

      198-780UK.GIF.73a23996acb41313832780541b 

     

     

    id laugh if that actually came off lmaao

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    Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
    17 minutes ago, East Kent Snow Desert said:

    Does anyone know if these images are prone to ignoring Thanet and the North East coast of Kent for snow depths or could there be a legitimate reason for this? 

    I know the temps are often a couple of degrees higher than further west and south but surely in this instance with low 850s and DPs this is unlikely to be accurate.

      198-780UK.GIF.73a23996acb41313832780541b 

     

     

    Yep, the GFS is run at 0.25 degrees which is about 27km ish, so the grid squares near to the coasts actually can think they're mostly or even entirely in the sea, which isn't going to be conducive to settling snow! That's one of many reasons to take lying snow forecasts at that range and using medium range models with a big dose of salt. 

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    Can the GFS been trusted or is it like a person who pretends to be your friend but breaks all their promises

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    Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire

    GFS and UKMO 144 hours from 12z yesterday and then GFS and UKMO 120 hours from 12z today. 

    gfs-0-144.png

    UW144-21.gif

    gfs-0-120.png

    UW120-21.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms in summer, cold/snow in winter
  • Location: Herne, Kent
    14 minutes ago, Paul said:

    Yep, the GFS is run at 0.25 degrees which is about 27km ish, so the grid squares near to the coasts actually can think they're mostly or even entirely in the sea, which isn't going to be conducive to settling snow! That's one of many reasons to take lying snow forecasts at that range and using medium range models with a big dose of salt. 

    Thanks for the explanation Paul!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hatfield Peverel near Chelmsford Essex
  • Location: Hatfield Peverel near Chelmsford Essex

    Everyone's talking about the snow  but flooding could become a big concern aswell

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    Posted
  • Location: St Albans,
  • Location: St Albans,
    2 minutes ago, Dbarb said:

    Everyone's talking about the snow  but flooding could become a big concern aswell

     

    3 minutes ago, yamkin said:

     

     

    2 minutes ago, Dbarb said:

    Everyone's talking about the snow  but flooding could become a big concern aswell

    Yes, large low pressure anchored in the N Sea can also spell costal flooding issues - where are we on tides next weekend?

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    Posted
  • Location: Hatfield Peverel near Chelmsford Essex
  • Location: Hatfield Peverel near Chelmsford Essex
    Just now, m1chaels said:

     

     

    Yes, large low pressure anchored in the N Sea can also spell costal flooding issues - where are we on tides next weekend?

    My main concern would be river flooding as they are already extremely high in the south east 

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
    39 minutes ago, Paul said:

    Yep, the GFS is run at 0.25 degrees which is about 27km ish, so the grid squares near to the coasts actually can think they're mostly or even entirely in the sea, which isn't going to be conducive to settling snow! That's one of many reasons to take lying snow forecasts at that range and using medium range models with a big dose of salt. 

    but the salt will melt the snow   

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Great operationals for this region BUT...

    GFS ensembles are still full of LPs being too far north for our location. Its a real risk and was reflected n the 06z operational as such. Hopefully the 12z is closer to the mark but I'd expect more model flips over the next 24hrs as there is clearly scope for that sort of development.

    I'd urge large caution at the moment, bust potential is still high at this point for our part of the country.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    25 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    Can the GFS been trusted or is it like a person who pretends to be your friend but breaks all their promises

    Yes be wary!...a mate that promises you a 1980's Curly Wurly but all you receive is the Cadbury's Xmas selection version i.e. tiny winy.

    With GFS if it's showing Snowmaggedon charts, 9.5 times out of 10 it will back down.

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
    2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Yes be wary!...a mate that promises you a 1980's Curly Wurly but all you receive is the Cadbury's Xmas selection version i.e. tiny winy.

    With GFS if it's showing Snowmaggedon charts, 9.5 times out of 10 it will back down.

    i remember when it used to be a good 10 inches. but i am quite old now   

    Edited by MAF
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    2 hours ago, yamkin said:

     

    Look at Europe on that chart and some southern central parts are cold...latest models just don't show that in the 6-10 day time frame, in fact the reverse.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    10 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Look at Europe on that chart and some southern central parts are cold...latest models just don't show that in the 6-10 day time frame, in fact the reverse.

    That has sleet written all over it

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