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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
16 minutes ago, MAF said:

i remember when it used to be a good 10 inches. but i am quite old now   

Everything goes a bit curly wurly when you get old

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Posted
  • Location: SE London (60m ASL)
  • Location: SE London (60m ASL)

Update from MOD thread, ECM is looking good eventually bringing easterlies down to our region. Run isn’t over yet but at that relatively short timeframe I’d say that’s been the best model convergence so far, even if they take slightly different routes to get there

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
2 minutes ago, yamkin said:

ECM is now on board with GFS & UKMO

image.thumb.png.dfae20af23a436d62a36ad07720b3b12.png

The ECM was having none of it yesterday

Edited by lassie23
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Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)

Feast your eyes on this

sss.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: SE London (60m ASL)
  • Location: SE London (60m ASL)

Expect a major upgrade in BBC forecasts now the ECM is coming out with this. I think the “Weather for the week ahead” is recorded already now but if the ECM does continue with this it would be a major backtrack for the BBC

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
2 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

Feast your eyes on this

sss.JPG

and that's just to Monday - more coming down the line after with easterly severe gales and -12C uppers

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Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
1 minute ago, Stu_London said:

and that's just to Monday - more coming down the line after with easterly severe gales and -12C uppers

As i said a bit earlier, IF this comes to fruition, the snow depths of 1987 could easily be surpassed.

Exciting times, but let's get them to a reliable timeframe before we get too carried away.

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Just now, Speedbird said:

As i said a bit earlier, IF this comes to fruition, the snow depths of 1987 could easily be surpassed.

Exciting times, but let's get them to a reliable timeframe before we get too carried away.

Yes - indeed - keep the BOOMs in the locker until at least Wednesday, possibly Thursday.

Still a chance things could go the way of the 06z GFS or similarly poorly

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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
9 minutes ago, jamesgold said:

Expect a major upgrade in BBC forecasts now the ECM is coming out with this. I think the “Weather for the week ahead” is recorded already now but if the ECM does continue with this it would be a major backtrack for the BBC

Let's hope the BBC forecasters don't go and use an outdated model output 

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Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire

Looking across all 3 of the major models. ECM slower to evolve but time for that to change. Really looking to see these charts down to 0z they have moved from t144 yesterday to t120 positively. Saturday onwards looking cold and increasing.

Edited by Hammer
Error
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Posted
  • Location: SE London (60m ASL)
  • Location: SE London (60m ASL)

This has truly been the most incredible few hours on here. Given the situation, the output is actually bordering on worryingly severe. I hope everyone on the MOD thread is ready for downgrades. It really doesn’t get better than this (I know I said this about the pub run yesterday, but surely now )

of course I know it won’t turn out anywhere near as severe...

Edited by jamesgold
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
9 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Yes - indeed - keep the BOOMs in the locker until at least Wednesday, possibly Thursday.

Still a chance things could go the way of the 06z GFS or similarly poorly

Yeah its still a large risk IMO. Only need a small minor secondary low forming on the northern end of that limpet low and we can kiss the cold air goodbye in our region as we will get locked out of it.

Still, we are moving into the timeframe where the models will be sniffing that out now, so if we can get through the next couple of suites then I think we will be ok.

We shouldn't be shocked if the GFS throws another wobble on its 18z or 00z runs though, its ensembles are still bringing up that LP far too quickly into the Se quarter of the UK before the cold digs in far too often for my liking.

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Posted
  • Location: Bridge, Kent
  • Location: Bridge, Kent

Model output is so good today. Not sure I can bear to check them tomorrow as surely whatever they show will feel like a downgrade relative to watching tonights show even if they continue with the same 

For the first time ever I'm torn between the excitement of possible 'proper' winter snow (my favourite was Dec 2010 with over a foot of snow) and the fear a widespread snow event will significantly disrupt the vaccination efforts.

Edited by snoangel
typo
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
1 hour ago, Dbarb said:

Everyone's talking about the snow  but flooding could become a big concern aswell

Yep all the ground water will freeze, the snow on top, then the warm up happens, and the problems we have now, are magnified, because the water already there has gone no where, and the frozen stuff and snow all melts.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
1 hour ago, m1chaels said:

 

 

Yes, large low pressure anchored in the N Sea can also spell costal flooding issues - where are we on tides next weekend?

I didn't even consider that.

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Posted
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
20 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

As i said a bit earlier, IF this comes to fruition, the snow depths of 1987 could easily be surpassed.

Exciting times, but let's get them to a reliable timeframe before we get too carried away.

Perhaps, but that would take a really exceptional event, and we're now talking about approaching mid-February rather than mid-January.  What is the southern North Sea's SST now compared with average, I wonder?  If still 2C above, perhaps enough instability could be imparted into an ENE airfow to produce decent falls, but Surrey had 40cm+ in January 1987 and I don't see that materialising.  

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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

There are still a few hurdles to clear, but this easterly is slowly getting into a closer and closer timeframe.

If all of this does become a reality, the real winner will have been the GFS P. It was consistently showing this possible easterly well over a week ago. It took the other models a while to catch on, but they're now all pretty much on the same page for the weekend.

Edited by NewEra21
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Posted
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Yep all the ground water will freeze, the snow on top, then the warm up happens, and the problems we have now, are magnified, because the water already there has gone no where, and the frozen stuff and snow all melts.

Possibly, though only the very top of the groundwater layer would be likely to freeze, allowing the bulk to drain away under this 'lid'.  A lot would depend on the rapidity of the thaw.

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Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
2 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

Perhaps, but that would take a really exceptional event, and we're now talking about approaching mid-February rather than mid-January.  What is the southern North Sea's SST now compared with average, I wonder?  If still 2C above, perhaps enough instability could be imparted into an ENE airfow to produce decent falls, but Surrey had 40cm+ in January 1987 and I don't see that materialising.  

ECM 12z is suggesting a quite exceptional event. It could be surpassed for certain locations - as it stands we are looking at quite a sustained period of moderate/heavy snow. Remember the main1987 event took place over 24-48 hours - todays ECM is showing the potential of 60-72 hours and as Nick S indicated earlier. the snow depth charts could be seriously underplaying potential totals.

 

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
2 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

Possibly, though only the very top of the groundwater layer would be likely to freeze, allowing the bulk to drain away under this 'lid'.  A lot would depend on the rapidity of the thaw.

Which knowing what normally happens will be rain induced. We've got to hope for a slow sunny thaw.

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Posted
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
34 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

and that's just to Monday - more coming down the line after with easterly severe gales and -12C uppers

Are you saying maxima of -12C ("uppers")?!  If in the SE that would far exceed the record, and with the North Sea so warm at the moment I can't see how the air could arrive here anywhere near cold enough to get close to that.

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