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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
3 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

Are you saying maxima of -12C ("uppers")?!  If in the SE that would far exceed the record, and with the North Sea so warm at the moment I can't see how the air could arrive here anywhere near cold enough to get close to that.

One was indicating -13 uppers earlier across the south east

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Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton

The 12z runs were at the very top end of absolute optimal development we would want to see to get a snowy ( very snowy) outcome for us in SE. Sadly as desperate I am fit those charts to verify I feel from experience that today viewing was the pinnacle and slowly over the next few runs will start to downgrade . Like Kold  weather I have a real fear of secondary lows forming which models won’t be picking up just yet. We are right on the edge so any change that are minor in the grand scheme of weather could shut the cold out for us . It’s certainly a high risk high reward situation - Im hoping those charts are still there come Thursday 12z but nearly 20 years on here told me to be cautious 

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Posted
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
16 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

The models look great however past experience says don’t get excited; fully expecting downgrades to a more modest cold snap

Indeed - much as I enjoy snow and the prospect of a heavy fall, I just can't see the deep pool of cold air that has been talked of here - Scandinavia and Russia are around their average temperatures now but are shown to be warming significantly to only a few degrees below freezing by next weekend.  Given that, where will all this exceptionally cold air come from?

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Posted
  • Location: SE London (60m ASL)
  • Location: SE London (60m ASL)
24 minutes ago, snoangel said:

Model output is so good today. Not sure I can bear to check them tomorrow as surely whatever they show will feel like a downgrade relative to watching tonights show even if they continue with the same 

For the first time ever I'm torn between the excitement of possible 'proper' winter snow (my favourite was Dec 2010 with over a foot of snow) and the fear a widespread snow event will significantly disrupt the vaccination efforts.

The weather’s going to do what it’s going to do. If the ECM comes off, it will do so whether we feel guilty about it or not, so I reckon we should enjoy the ride, and if it does all come crashing down then at least we can see a positive there ??‍♂️

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Posted
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
9 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

One was indicating -13 uppers earlier across the south east

Hmm.  I just can't see such record-breaking cold materialising from what are likely to be above-average continental levels by then and a very warm North Sea.   For SE England we're talking about around 5C below the historical record low maxima (-8C in Feb 1991, I think)!

Edited by Ian Docwra
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Posted
  • Location: Woodley, Reading, Berkshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW SNOW SNOW
  • Location: Woodley, Reading, Berkshire

Some of you with knowledge maybe confirm, would this give us a Thames streamer having -11 to -12 uppers on a easterly? 

DA70F716-56BC-4A1E-A940-EBA2E69174F7.jpeg

Edited by XLNC
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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

and if they do know, can they give me the lottery numbers for wed/sat too please. 

sorry to be dismissive, but its way too far ahead to know

 

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Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)

Even better - but to be taken with a huge pinch of salt (for now)

hres.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire

It is good to see posters urge caution. The good thing is through past 24 hours a positive step towards the weekend and onwards, more twists to come, be interesting to see how things are looking come Wednesday 12z.

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Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
10 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

Hmm.  I just can't see such record-breaking cold materialising from what are likely to be above-average continental levels by then and a very warm North Sea.   For SE England we're talking about around 5C below the historical record low maxima (-8C in Feb 1991, I think)!

I have looked for the chart i referred to but can't quite locate it right now.

Meantime, this offers a similar scenario

two.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
17 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

Hmm.  I just can't see such record-breaking cold materialising from what are likely to be above-average continental levels by then and a very warm North Sea.   For SE England we're talking about around 5C below the historical record low maxima (-8C in Feb 1991, I think)!

People are talking about the upper air temp at 850mb not the maximum temp on the ground ..

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Posted
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.

The Met Office text forecast now talks of "chilly" weather, and drier than this week, rather than heavy snowfall (in the south anyway).  Very mixed messages/models - to be expected with the jet stream behaving as it is.

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Posted
  • Location: colchester,essex,40m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Very Hot,Very cold.scared of thunder and lightning.
  • Location: colchester,essex,40m asl.
29 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

Indeed - much as I enjoy snow and the prospect of a heavy fall, I just can't see the deep pool of cold air that has been talked of here - Scandinavia and Russia are around their average temperatures now but are shown to be warming significantly to only a few degrees below freezing by next weekend.  Given that, where will all this exceptionally cold air come from?

Because it left there and coming here

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Posted
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
7 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

People are talking about the upper air temp at 850mb not the maximum temp on the ground ..

Yes, I've just realised that - don't know what I was thinking there!  That still extrapolates to freezing or just below at the surface but there doesn't seem to be an origin cold enough to provide that after the sea crossing.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Canterbury
  • Location: Near Canterbury
28 minutes ago, XLNC said:

Some of you with knowledge maybe confirm, would this give us a Thames streamer having -11 to -12 uppers on a easterly? 

DA70F716-56BC-4A1E-A940-EBA2E69174F7.jpeg

Possibly not. With a low pressure i think the winds tend to blow in towards the centre of the low a bit, rather than following the isobar lines precisely. So it could be more NEsterly.

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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
4 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

Yes, I've just realised that - don't know what I was thinking there!  That still extrapolates to freezing or just below at the surface but there doesn't seem to be an origin cold enough to provide that after the sea crossing.

I am sure we could squeeze the odd ice day with uppers -10 > .? 

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex

Although I love a nice dump of snow I must admit I am concerned that if it comes off, as being suggested hysterically in that other place, it will have a serious affect on the vaccination programme. 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Met office going for it now I see on their YT Channel.so why were the text forecasts earlier only talking about wintry showers,could be some serious lake-effect snow on the Eastern side of kent  and Essex next week.Warnings will be issued in a few days if these charts continue to upgrade almost a certainty.

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
1 hour ago, XLNC said:

Some of you with knowledge maybe confirm, would this give us a Thames streamer having -11 to -12 uppers on a easterly? 

DA70F716-56BC-4A1E-A940-EBA2E69174F7.jpeg

To have enough instability in the air for convection for lake effect/sea effect snow you need the temp to be at least 13oC difference between 850 temps and water temps. The bigger difference the better. This would be fine.

Then you need a good fetch - they usually say around 60miles min over lakes but the sea is deeper/less obstructed so could be less. The longer the better. 

Then you need the directional sheer between 700mb and surface to be less than 60 degrees. Ideally less than 30 for big snow makers.

Assuming all these are in place and the direction of the wind in the chart above would prob give something close to a Thames streamer. 

 

Edited by Coopsy
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Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
1 hour ago, XLNC said:

Some of you with knowledge maybe confirm, would this give us a Thames streamer having -11 to -12 uppers on a easterly? 

DA70F716-56BC-4A1E-A940-EBA2E69174F7.jpeg

Yes, conditions would be conducive for a Thames streamer.

850's of -12 over water of 6c would provide differential of -18 producing sufficient instability and, coupled with a NE / ENE over the expanse of the North Sea should enable the formation of streamers.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
1 hour ago, Speedbird said:

Even better - but to be taken with a huge pinch of salt (for now)

hres.JPG

10 inches for me. Great stuff

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Posted
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Fog, Frost, Storms and Rain if it rains like it means it.
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border

Well this was 2 years ago today in Fleet - had about 11hrs of snowfall. Juat hoping some of todays charts are actually on the money for next weekend.

Edited by Mizzle
Typo
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

The auto generated BBC forecasts for here this weekend and next week are hilarious. Just snow all day.

Lovely to see hopefully something comes of it at least.

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