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South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards


Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Hullbridge,essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/storms
  • Location: Hullbridge,essex
    9 minutes ago, Riky91 said:

    Wondering why convection is happening only from midland to up north but nothing in SE inland?

    Southeast is full of it, started last night and has brought more snow here....

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    Posted
  • Location: Halesworth, Suffolk
  • Location: Halesworth, Suffolk

    Not my photo, from our local facebook group. This is last night, its worse this morning. Lots of drifting snow.

    147932466_10224569484529525_5372000574515396812_o.jpg

    147380052_3427476080697310_8169405901228950924_n.jpg

    Edited by Blazerblue
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Just a dusting here so far, most coming from a heavier shower at around 6am.

    Currently it is quite bright with the sun trying to shine through, a few flakes of snow in the air.

    D8896E7A-228E-4EC5-A396-D9C40B01D90A.jpeg
     

    There appears to be some more organised precipitation developing across NE Norfolk at the moment that has the potential to drift towards Cambridgeshire and areas further west.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Prague, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Prague, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
    14 minutes ago, Riky91 said:

    Wondering why convection is happening only from midland to up north but nothing in SE inland?

    Think close proximity to decaying fronts associated with Storm Darcy is the reason. Once these move away (as they are doing slowly), should get more convection going across the SE

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Whilst I've not deep dived the other models, AROME to be fair does start to strengthen the convection a little as the winds shift more ENE in the estuary over the next 6hrs.

    It doesn't have a true streamer though I'd say until late this evening when there is a pretty solid starting point in the Estuary that tracks roughly along the same parth for a good 9hrs though far S.Essex, NW Kent, SE London and out into Surrey and eventually down to me.

    Upto then we have got constant showers that are getting a little storng near the Estruary.

    The other thing to note regarding the streamer possiblity is the models, even the high resolution ones, struggle with the amounts of instality that can locally be generated, so locally convection may go stronger than expected.

    Either way AROME pushes some decent totals about in the next 48hrs with 7-15cms additional snow from SE Essex down to E.Hampshire in a broadly WSW direction. The trackc is just a little displaced further south than a classic ENE thames streamer apart from perhaps tonight so ARONE has a little less in S.Essex than you'd expect in such a flow, even I end up with 5-7cms from it which will be a good outcome.

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    Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
    12 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    Gloom in the MOD thread this morning, the second beast from the east seems to have died.

    It will be back on again in 6 hours 

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    Posted
  • Location: Marlow (Bucks)
  • Location: Marlow (Bucks)
    1 minute ago, lewis clark said:

    Southeast is full of it, started last night and has brought more snow here....

    Im talking for west london

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and winter storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

    Good morning everyone! Nice white start here, with about 1cm on many surfaces. How do people think East Sussex will do wrt streamer potential tonight? Thanks in advance  

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    14 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    Gloom in the MOD thread this morning, the second beast from the east seems to have died.

    They always overreact to the runs if they go less cold, end of the week is miles away, nothing is set in stone yet, the swings up and down in that thread are ridiculous 

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    Posted
  • Location: Crayford Kent :) 30m AMSL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Storms
  • Location: Crayford Kent :) 30m AMSL

    Coming down nicely again after yesterday's disappointment and plenty on the radar yay 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Really been coming down here for the last hour, traffic on roads now down to around 10mph, whats it like in Rayleigh or the higher places around here with some hills ? But grass totals topping up nicely now and all paths and roads covered easily now meaning the ground temps are very condusive to settling.

    Temp is -2.6c

    Dewp is -4.3c

    Stunning spell over Easterly weather and the cold is really setting in now.

    Have not looked in the Model thread but if the cold is getting shoved out of the way does that mean a Snow to Rain event incoming at some point ?

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    Posted
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)

    Ok worked yesterday afternoon at my lovely station, and at 7pm an announcement was made that all trains were to be cancelled from 9pm due to 3rd rail icing  (oh the sparks were fantastic!), my last train came through at 21:10. I was told to lock my station up (shutters down etc.) and to hang about for night security till I headed home (was no problem getting home bus service ran fantastic). 

    So why are you telling us this? I hear you!

    Well I've never ever done that in my lifetime at any stations I've worked at in the rail industry!  2018, never happened, 2010 never happened, Trains ran ok (carefully and slower.)

    But I'm reading the news this morning and every article that's involved with this cold spell is saying "This isn't as bad as the beast from the east 2018" 

    Well it could be.. never shut a station before due to icing and trains getting stuck in Dartford And Sevenoaks, and its the same situation this morning! Loads of cancelled services..

    And they are also thinking of ending the service earlier again tonight.

    So do you reckon this is on par or worse then 2018... I'm starting to think that,, but IL make my mind up by Friday. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

    Moderate dandruff here currently.

    Hoping to match 8 cm from BFTE

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m

    Managed a dusting overnight. Further showers seems be dying out way before they hit NW London, although perhaps that might change during the day. Should record an ice day, and perhaps tomorrow too (especially with a little snow on the ground).

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    1 minute ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Light snow has made it to Fareham Hampshire, though it'll take all day to make a covering at this rate. Looks like something a little heavier brewing over parts of W Sussex

    Its looking like one of those days where there is going to be constant light snow around on and off. 

    I'm not convinced that any streamers are going to get that strong, and the models aren't really suggesting that, but moderate convection falling over a prolonged period will still add up over time, as some places in E.Anglia have seen over the past 24hrs. And this time no issues with settling either I'd thought.

    Definite a shirt to ENE winds though in the atmosphere, you can see that quite clearly on the radar now shifting westwards.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    Looks like those beefy showers the Lincs and Humber have been getting plastered with are gradually moving south.

    Moderate snow here again - 5-6cm where yesterdays snow had survived - should get 1 or 2cm more out of the current situation

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

     

    3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    Have not looked in the Model thread but if the cold is getting shoved out of the way does that mean a Snow to Rain event incoming at some point ?

    Paul, its quite complicated but the models aren't really suggesting a breakdown at all this far east.

    Kinda looks like a classic evolution that the fronts try to come in, get stuck around Somerset and then die away. For the weekend we will probably lose the colder uppers but the airflow remains SE/SSE so whilst the temperatures will go up a little probably, we still remain way below normal with some very low night mins, probably maxes a little higher though at 1-3c would be my guess.

    Beyond that and the models really aren't sure, all the major models have a totally different evolution. It could get overspilled and we end up in a SW airflow, or we could end up going into renewed easterlies which may end up even colder.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    6 minutes ago, North Easterly Breeze said:

    ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

    0F91E714-374D-4926-9546-467C001A2C68.jpeg

    Not surprised, the overnight high resolution models have strengthened the convection coming in, especially tonight . Strong signs of a true Thames streamer late evening into the morning hours embedded as well. AROME for example has a fairly clear streamer path with 7-15cms, with more further east obviously.

    Edited by kold weather
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