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South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards


Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: East Hants
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells n snow
  • Location: East Hants
    13 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Whilst I've not deep dived the other models, AROME to be fair does start to strengthen the convection a little as the winds shift more ENE in the estuary over the next 6hrs.

    It doesn't have a true streamer though I'd say until late this evening when there is a pretty solid starting point in the Estuary that tracks roughly along the same parth for a good 9hrs though far S.Essex, NW Kent, SE London and out into Surrey and eventually down to me.

    Upto then we have got constant showers that are getting a little storng near the Estruary.

    The other thing to note regarding the streamer possiblity is the models, even the high resolution ones, struggle with the amounts of instality that can locally be generated, so locally convection may go stronger than expected.

    Either way AROME pushes some decent totals about in the next 48hrs with 7-15cms additional snow from SE Essex down to E.Hampshire in a broadly WSW direction. The trackc is just a little displaced further south than a classic ENE thames streamer apart from perhaps tonight so ARONE has a little less in S.Essex than you'd expect in such a flow, even I end up with 5-7cms from it which will be a good outcome.

    Woke up to a dusting this morning mate! Whether we’ll get any more though.....still blowing about lightly in the wind.  

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    Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton
    7 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    Really been coming down here for the last hour, traffic on roads now down to around 10mph, whats it like in Rayleigh or the higher places around here with some hills ? But grass totals topping up nicely now and all paths and roads covered easily now meaning the ground temps are very condusive to settling.

    Temp is -2.6c

    Dewp is -4.3c

    Stunning spell over Easterly weather and the cold is really setting in now.

    Have not looked in the Model thread but if the cold is getting shoved out of the way does that mean a Snow to Rain event incoming at some point ?

    to be honest FI starts at 72 hrs as the models have been flipping all over the place - it did seem the last time i checked in friday that the breakdown had moved away from a battle ground event to a wimp but this may change again - ECM did have a day 9 event for us in SE but thats very very much JFF

     

    one thing i guess the snow we are getting is powder snow ? as the dew points are so low hence the icing cake effect here in London?

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    Posted
  • Location: Edenbridge, Kent - close to Surrey border
  • Weather Preferences: Spring, sunshine, snow
  • Location: Edenbridge, Kent - close to Surrey border

    We’ve had another dusting overnight, our road is partially covered (due to it drifting to one side more than the other) started snowing lightly again and the met office has us down for heavy snow lunchtime and this evening, so we’ll see if that happens! Luckily my desk is right by the window so I’ll have one eye on my screen and one eye on the window today!

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    Just now, kold weather said:

    Not surprised, the overnight high resolution models have strengthened the convection coming in, especially tonight . Strong signs of a true Thames streamer late evening into the morning hours embedded as well. AROME for example has a fairly clear streamer path with 7-15cms, with more further east obviously.

    Sounds good for my locale in NE Surrey.

    Any chance this could mimic what was seen in 09 & 10 in terms of totals - possibly 25cm in some spots?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Sydney, Australia

    More videos from my family in Ipswich! East Suffolk and East Essex seem to have been sweet spots so far ❄️ Again, I never saw that much snow in the 23/4 years I lived there (1988 to 2012) and I suspect they have more to come! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coulsdon, Surrey 147M (asl)
  • Location: Coulsdon, Surrey 147M (asl)

    Very icy out, not surprising really, but considering this time yesterday the downs we covered in soggy and waterlogged mud, this morning the whole lot is frozen solid, and not just on the surface but deep down. just goes to show how penetrating the wind has been. light snow shower at the moment.

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    Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich

    Heavy snow for the last hour here with big fat flakes and looks as though a fair amount overnight. Everything covered and hearing that the roads are pretty bad around Norwich and Norfolk! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Heybridge, Essex!
  • Location: Heybridge, Essex!

    Still snowing here and now even the main roads are being covered again. Yesterday 6cm or so had frozen to the van with a lovely inch of powder on top which must have fallen in the night

    Its absolutely baltic out there now! Hopefully this keeps up all day

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    Posted
  • Location: Bisley, Surrey (41m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, big storms and extreme weather
  • Location: Bisley, Surrey (41m ASL)
    1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    Sounds good for my locale in NE Surrey.

    Any chance this could mimic what was seen in 09 & 10 in terms of totals - possibly 25cm in some spots?

    I hope you’re right RD. It’s not looking overly promising at the minute in Woking. But the main thing was to get the cold in and the snow will follow. We have definitely got that now, so just fingers and toes crossed and a stealie eye on the radar. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Epsom
  • Location: Epsom
    1 minute ago, Mr.B said:

    I hope you’re right RD. It’s not looking overly promising at the minute in Woking. But the main thing was to get the cold in and the snow will follow. We have definitely got that now, so just fingers and toes crossed and a stealie eye on the radar. 

    Anyone know what time the streamer would set up?

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    Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
    9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Not surprised, the overnight high resolution models have strengthened the convection coming in, especially tonight . Strong signs of a true Thames streamer late evening into the morning hours embedded as well. AROME for example has a fairly clear streamer path with 7-15cms, with more further east obviously.

    Let’s hope the streamers a) happen and b) push well inland. 
    SE Essex normally does half decent. Any more info you see Kold, whack it up here...

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    3 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    Sounds good for my locale in NE Surrey.

    Any chance this could mimic what was seen in 09 & 10 in terms of totals - possibly 25cm in some spots?

    Probably a low chance at the moment to be honest that it goes into a Feb 09 mode, that was a really potent streamer that dropped rates at nearly an inch an hour, thats impressive rates! For comparison we are currently around 10x less that rate even in the Estruary!

    Instead IMO any streamer is going to be much more modest, however obviously with it being so cold we will keep a large majority of it settling so even a moderate streamer over a prolonged period will start to add up, as those in places like Suffolk can probably agree with.

    However never say never...

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    Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
    33 minutes ago, Riky91 said:

    Wondering why convection is happening only from midland to up north but nothing in SE inland?

    Taking a quick look, a couple of factors at play. The wind direction is more favourable from the Wash northwards as there's more of an easterly element to it. There's also a longer run across the North Sea to build convective showers which penetrate inland. The wind direction south of the Wash has turned north easterly and has a longer run across East Anglia before reaching the SE, by then giving light snowfall. 

    Wind direction this morning: 1655993865_ArpegeWindAv08.00Mon08Feb.thumb.png.1cbbb7b4e282716b7d23bca2e4e5bd17.png

    Latest radar image:  2013497322_Radar08Feb08_35.thumb.jpg.943fcf48056a776e7588971fe98a6df7.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Ipswich
  • Location: Ipswich
    12 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Not surprised, the overnight high resolution models have strengthened the convection coming in, especially tonight . Strong signs of a true Thames streamer late evening into the morning hours embedded as well. AROME for example has a fairly clear streamer path with 7-15cms, with more further east obviously.

    Docyiu have a model that's hows this please 

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    1 minute ago, Blessed Weather said:

    Taking a quick look, a couple of factors at play. The wind direction is more favourable from the Wash northwards as there's more of an easterly element to it. There's also a longer run across the North Sea to build convective showers which penetrate inland. The wind direction south of the Wash has turned north easterly and has a longer run across East Anglia before reaching the SE, by then giving light snowfall. 

    Wind direction this morning: 1655993865_ArpegeWindAv08.00Mon08Feb.thumb.png.1cbbb7b4e282716b7d23bca2e4e5bd17.png

    Latest radar image:  2013497322_Radar08Feb08_35.thumb.jpg.943fcf48056a776e7588971fe98a6df7.jpg

    When will it turn easterly for us? I thought this was meant to happen already by last night?

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
    8 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    Sounds good for my locale in NE Surrey.

    Any chance this could mimic what was seen in 09 & 10 in terms of totals - possibly 25cm in some spots?

    Well that would be nice but unlikely I reckon! 
     

    meanwhile, my parents’ house in east Bergholt in Suffolk...

     

    A5EB11E2-A97B-498F-AB5A-6819603062E0.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath, Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath, Kent
    34 minutes ago, MAF said:

    Blooming cold outside St Tom's when i went over the bridge 30 mins ago. very grey but just light stuff in the wind.

    Luckily I'm working from home today ❄☃️

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    Posted
  • Location: Marlow (Bucks)
  • Location: Marlow (Bucks)
    2 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

    Taking a quick look, a couple of factors at play. The wind direction is more favourable from the Wash northwards as there's more of an easterly element to it. There's also a longer run across the North Sea to build convective showers which penetrate inland. The wind direction south of the Wash has turned north easterly and has a longer run across East Anglia before reaching the SE, by then giving light snowfall. 

    Wind direction this morning: 1655993865_ArpegeWindAv08.00Mon08Feb.thumb.png.1cbbb7b4e282716b7d23bca2e4e5bd17.png

    Latest radar image:  2013497322_Radar08Feb08_35.thumb.jpg.943fcf48056a776e7588971fe98a6df7.jpg

    Now I understand Cheers!

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Brighton
    10 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

    Brighton this morning, thanks Beast From East

    70318989-7148-4CB2-BC36-5552DE7910F0.jpeghigher up is better. A dusting on roof tops and cars. Cam still see the ground through it though! 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Gants Hill, Ilford, Essex
  • Location: Gants Hill, Ilford, Essex
    12 minutes ago, not2bad said:

    Morning, just a bit of a dusting in Barkingside.

    IMG_2205.jpg

    Hello there. I live in Gants Hill - must be only a short distance from you.

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