South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards

[wellington boot]

58 minutes ago, yamkin said:

A few days ago, you mentioned the strong possibility of streamers setting up if the winds turned to a ENE flow. Well done for a brilliant observation 

Did he? I remember putting this to him and he said conditions weren't right this time and he gave himself an almost 0% chance... Just saying...

[EML Network]

14 minutes ago, Alpine glow said:

Still lightly snowing in brighton - sooo light.  Are we going to get a taste of these cm's coming later?  The radar and met office outlook with the snow symbols look promising.  Normally i'd be volunteering at the Botanic Garden at Heartwood / Emerson College in Forest Row on Mondays.  Too risky to drive so need to play in the woods instead

Id ignore the Met Office icons they change all the time.

I think what we have now is all we'll get 

[Blazerblue]

10 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

They will don't worry, unless it's not fully cancelled, just postponed.

Had a text message, that reads, due to adverse weather conditions, unfortunately we have had to cancel your asda groceries home delivery that was due today, we are really sorry but we've had to do this for the safety of our drivers.

No doubt refund will come tomorrow as it usually does if they overcharge or i send something back. Not worried, managed to walk to coop, which was empty, for essentials. But is flipping expensive.

Edited February 8, 2021 by Blazerblue

[Methuselah]

Persistent mainly light, but occasionally moderate snow, up here, just now, so I guess I'm near the southern limit of the North Norfolk convergence zone?

But, what I like most about easterlies like this, is that it only needs the steering winds to deviate ever-so-slightly from what's shown on the fax charts, for things to change.

You can go to bed, expecting nothing, only to wake-up to Snowmageddon... Or, the very opposite!

Edited February 8, 2021 by General Cluster

[lawrenk]

16 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

So surely there are no posters who say the Amber wasnt warranted now ?? I know not every area in the Amber got what an Amber warning deserved but plenty of places did. When Storm warnings are Issued not every place in those warnings get a Storm for Instance.

Some places now well over 20cm and with roads closed and drifting and stories of tractors rescuing people trapped etc. Add into that quite exceptional  temperatures for a Maritime Island not rising above -2c then surely the people saying the Amber should not have been Issued can say it certainly was. 

I think the Met Office have done a great job with the risk zones and the timings of things.

Completely agree with you re the MO warnings. We were just in the yellow (1to 3cms) zone and got smack in the middle of that. 3 miles SW, which was just outside the zone got virtually nothing, so it was uncannily accurate for here at least.

Had v light snow here for the last hour but not adding to any accumulations. I’m guessing that’s more or less it now for this part of E Sx unless anyone can provide any encouragement for the rest of the day and tomorrow?

[KDME]

20 minutes ago, Southender said:

Did anyone else have to put a kettle of hot water on their condensate waste pipe from the boiler this morning? Yeah that was me at 6am this morning, as the boiler was making horrific gurgling noises. Fun. Not.

Hope you sorted it, not a day to not have a functioning boiler.

[Hammer]

6 minutes ago, KT said:

I have got 2cm of powder snow in Hertford Hertfordshire (North London) and it is still lightly snowing. Better than nothing. 

Very similar here in East Hertfordshire. I am guess possibility of another cm or so if this light snow continues with temperatures below freezing.

[snowrye]

Still snowing, and there's a covering, amazing longevity, hoping, like everyone else for more, would love to go for a walk in it, but im sceptical of the ice, after smashing 5 ribs in early dec, that are still not healed properly, so I'll just stay in the warm, on the recliner, and enjoy a 2nd day of watching snow falling

[Mark wheeler]

4 minutes ago, Blazerblue said:

Had a text message, that reads, due to adverse weather conditions, unfortunately we have had to cancel your asda groceries home delivery that was due today, we are really sorry but we've had to do this for the safety of our drivers.

No doubt refund will come tomorrow as it usually does if they overcharge or i send something back. Not worried, managed to walk to coop, which was empty, for essentials. But is flipping expensive.

Yep all riders are being asked to stand down across many home delivery services . Click and collect only . Not just Asda .

[throwoff]

1 hour ago, Jamie M said:

Dumped another cm of snow making it 7 cm here. It doesn't look to be stopping all that too soon either.

You lucky sod!

Chuffed for all of you getting these kind of depths!

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

Did he? I remember putting this to him and he said conditions weren't right this time and he gave himself an almost 0% chance... Just saying...

Haha I'm still not convinced it will get this far west, and we did get snow, but its hardly a white out believe me, its like someone was a little overkeen with the sugar! Its so small the little on the road has already sublimated away in a couple of hours 

In all seriousness though, I said multiple times there is likely to be a streamer on Tuesday at some point, however I did also say I'm not expecting it to be too potent, a more modest streamer. I still stand by that as well, its not going to go all Feb 09 on us, perhaps more Feb 05 which locally will still give good snowfalls but IMO outside of the main area that gets streamers its not going too extreme, I think 5-10cms is probably reasonable over the next 24hrs, with decreasing amounts the further west you go.

If I'm wrong though I'll be very pleased as I won't be far from the main zone of any streamer personally speaking!

[NYCSnow]

A fairly brief but more  moderate snow shower has passed through to top up the dusting. It’s so fine and powdery even the small amount we have “drifts” into the kerbs and edges of roof tiles. Current radar doesn’t look too promising at the moment for much more than the odd flurry?

[wellington boot]

1 hour ago, Lauren said:

And yet just down the road in Medway it's barely snowing at all. It's weird because normally in Medway Lordswood and Walderslade are snow magnets!

Yes we're prob just a little way SW of you guys in Medway, and it has been a little disappointing so far and the strength and penetration of the showers from the NE a little underwhelming.

Dont get me wrong, maybe 2 inches on grass now and everything is beautiful and white, and I'm happy with that, but we've undershot some model targets by a way.

[throwoff]

4 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

Yes we're prob just a little way SW of you guys in Medway, and it has been a little disappointing so far and the strength and penetration of the showers from the NE a little underwhelming.

Dont get me wrong, maybe 2 inches on grass now and everything is beautiful and white, and I'm happy with that, but we've undershot some model targets by a way.

There is still another window in a few hours then overnight tonight.

[KT]

4 minutes ago, Hammer said:

Very similar here in East Hertfordshire. I am guess possibility of another cm or so if this light snow continues with temperatures below freezing.

Hiya Hammer  Fingers crossed we get another cm or two or three or maybe more.

Current conditions at this moment is windy and lightly snowing.

[Snowman31]

Is the estuary going to wake up any time soon? Very light precipitation 

[paget]

This is my snow on the studio roof! Farnham, Surrey  

Edited February 8, 2021 by paget

[KDME]

Had a decent fall overnight in Hockley, not so much here in Chelmsford.  Where do we go after today?  Looks like there may be a a couple more CMs today and night.  What about the rest of the week?

Thanks.

 

[Dbarb]

Want to see more beefy showers now instead of constant snizlle like they have up north right now

[snowking]

21 minutes ago, Dami said:

very light snow, been like it a while. The houses are melting what little we had.

Yes it is a little disappointing, it must be ground temps that are just that little bit too high to sustain the covering we did have on concrete at least.

Hopefully we can get something a bit heavier in again later and overnight to give us a decent covering that can help cool the ground temperature too. Praying that the convergence zone manages to edge south enough to affect us

[wellington boot]

2 minutes ago, throwoff said:

There is still another window in a few hours then overnight tonight.

Yes I know, in theory, some chances. And we are far from the most needy!

Euro4 still has us down for another 10cm or so, but doesn't quite seem to align with other modelling of possible streamers, which tend to be further North and more W-E aligned than we would generally want.

I've seen secondary streamers hit us before, south of a main estuary band, but that's far from a rule.

[Froze were the Days]

Still very cold outside, temp -1.2c with an additional cm added so near 5cms here.

Is that right more snow is expected late tonight and tomorrow?

[Sarahgreatchart]

Walk to keyworker school ended in diversion to build a snowman and a snowday.

 

Thames streamers- where do they track? I never paid attention before as I just knew they didn’t affect us. But since moved west

[Sarahgreatchart]

39 minutes ago, Southender said:

Did anyone else have to put a kettle of hot water on their condensate waste pipe from the boiler this morning? Yeah that was me at 6am this morning, as the boiler was making horrific gurgling noises. Fun. Not.

Our sky isn’t working but no snow on dish

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, snowking said:

I'm not too sure if this has been posted yet, but very interesting FAX charts for the region tomorrow, first of all across the far North of the region:

And then a bit further south across East Anglia, running into the west of London and then further south:

Now I'll be honest, my experience with convergence zones on FAX charts are that they tend to shift position through until around 12-18 hours before hand, so I'm not getting my hopes up here just yet. However the risk clearly there. 

They're aligned pretty well to the EURO4 at the moment:

Worth bearing in mind with these that as we have seen recently, even high res models struggle to model the overall amount of precipitation.

Signs though of something through the Thames estuary too, and noticable that the EURO4 is slightly south of the FAX chart with the streamer through EA tonight:

Will be interesting to see how (or even if!) this sets up tonight. Arome pretty well aligned with EURO4 too:

In any case, where it does set up, you can see the potential for some very large totals:

And a slightly more zoomed in look:

Looks to be that zone through North Norfolk and into N Cambs that hits the jackpot.

Plenty more of interest over the next couple of days

I'm more interested in the position of the low and it's front out west, Thursday low in this fax chart definitely going under. Not sure whether that's fully decided yet or not.