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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward


Mapantz

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

A shiny new thread!

So, showers still ongoing for a few days and then the possibility of some giant twigs slipping along the South coast. Whether they'll be close enough with their precipitation is wide open for debate.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.fb4e780ec403089548f168f5047fd7e4.gif PPVI89.thumb.gif.c3fdf357edb17648560cf1c94f5dcf44.gif PPVJ89.thumb.gif.475b90512516648bbbf4756d28fff259.gif

The 15Z UKV is meh, so I didn't bother with it.

 

Old thread here

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Thanks @Mapantz 

Unfortunately, the white flag is being raised with regards to any significant snow for Thurs/Fri.  The 12z EC Det and the 15z high Res UKV keeping any PPN restricted to the Devon area, and even here fairly patchy.  This is the best it gets with regards to Thurs/Fri, so maybe some interest for Devon, not so much for elsewhere.

IMG_20210208_190250.thumb.jpg.218cef93df50434a721221e1f828e904.jpg

The 15z UKV does offer something of interest for more northern and eastern members of the region on Saturday though;

IMG_20210208_190337.thumb.jpg.5a374d75864359675f6b64228f49c207.jpg

IMG_20210208_190403.thumb.jpg.c4ffae8a77a6ce78588d511e0e778455.jpg

IMG_20210208_190430.thumb.jpg.c5188688438989a0cc2a2d0ff0274344.jpg

which aligns to the Meto extended forecast of splitting the region in half, with milder Atlantic sourced air over south western parts and colder air remaining over northern and eastern parts of the region;

IMG_20210208_191013.thumb.jpg.6b00341155ff1c9c1643a51c5ba9a65e.jpg

Our luck, with regards to snowfall, really isn't on our side at the moment.  For my area, IMBY, Thurs/Fri is now all but gone IMO.  I'm not getting overly enthused by Saturday at this stage either, no doubt that will find a way to go boobs up, although at least it does have the Meto support for now though I suppose.

Edited by AWD
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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh

I’m going off the UKV mind you, I went off dry roasted peanuts for a bit but I am very much back on them now. Maybe the UKV will find something in the next couple of days. Not hopeful though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset

First it was Thursday, then it was Friday, now it’s Saturday and marginal at that. The models are having a hard time pinning down who wins, the Atlantic or the Easterly.

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Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters/Hot summers
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport

Well after going out for supplies earlier with the worry of being snowed in....tonight we are in the Midst of the great blizzard of the Isle of Wight....this will go down in history and definitely one for the record books...

Honestly if you look close enough it is snowing very heavily....I am really worried about getting snowed in tonight....

4A55CD43-4FF0-4866-B4A1-74007163FB74.jpeg

9D182C49-F8AC-4F5F-A376-124CD93BB480.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Snow Starved Southampton
  • Location: Snow Starved Southampton
Just now, Wiltshireweatherwatcher said:

First it was Thursday, then it was Friday, now it’s Saturday and marginal at that. The models are having a hard time pinning down who wins, the Atlantic or the Easterly.

For me, the money is still on the 'cold block' holding out for the majority of the UK after this weekend.

The only downside to that is that it will remain dry for pretty much everyone.

To some of the more knowledgeable - what do we need to look for from the models in the short term, in order for this cold spell to create some instability/troughs etc? At the moment it looks pretty bland for the entire country.

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Posted
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
7 minutes ago, AWD said:

Thanks @Mapantz 

Unfortunately, the white flag is being raised with regards to any significant snow for Thurs/Fri.  The 12z EC Det and the 15z high Res UKV keeping any PPN restricted to the Devon area, and even here fairly patchy.  This is the best it gets with regards to Thurs/Fri, so maybe some interest for Devon, not so much for elsewhere.

IMG_20210208_190250.thumb.jpg.218cef93df50434a721221e1f828e904.jpg

The 15z UKV does offer something of interest for more northern and eastern members of the region on Saturday though;

IMG_20210208_190337.thumb.jpg.5a374d75864359675f6b64228f49c207.jpg

IMG_20210208_190403.thumb.jpg.c4ffae8a77a6ce78588d511e0e778455.jpg

IMG_20210208_190430.thumb.jpg.c5188688438989a0cc2a2d0ff0274344.jpg

which aligns to the Meto extended forecast of splitting the region in half, with milder Atlantic sourced air over south western parts and colder air remaining over northern and eastern parts of the region;

IMG_20210208_191013.thumb.jpg.6b00341155ff1c9c1643a51c5ba9a65e.jpg

Our luck, with regards to snowfall, really isn't on our side at the moment.  For my area, IMBY, Thurs/Fri is now all but gone IMO.  I'm not getting overly enthused by Saturday at this stage either, no doubt that will find a way to go boobs up, although at least it does have the Meto having for now though I suppose.

 

8 minutes ago, AWD said:

Thanks @Mapantz 

Unfortunately, the white flag is being raised with regards to any significant snow for Thurs/Fri.  The 12z EC Det and the 15z high Res UKV keeping any PPN restricted to the Devon area, and even here fairly patchy.  This is the best it gets with regards to Thurs/Fri, so maybe some interest for Devon, not so much for elsewhere.

IMG_20210208_190250.thumb.jpg.218cef93df50434a721221e1f828e904.jpg

The 15z UKV does offer something of interest for more northern and eastern members of the region on Saturday though;

IMG_20210208_190337.thumb.jpg.5a374d75864359675f6b64228f49c207.jpg

IMG_20210208_190403.thumb.jpg.c4ffae8a77a6ce78588d511e0e778455.jpg

IMG_20210208_190430.thumb.jpg.c5188688438989a0cc2a2d0ff0274344.jpg

which aligns to the Meto extended forecast of splitting the region in half, with milder Atlantic sourced air over south western parts and colder air remaining over northern and eastern parts of the region;

IMG_20210208_191013.thumb.jpg.6b00341155ff1c9c1643a51c5ba9a65e.jpg

Our luck, with regards to snowfall, really isn't on our side at the moment.  For my area, IMBY, Thurs/Fri is now all but gone IMO.  I'm not getting overly enthused by Saturday at this stage either, no doubt that will find a way to go boobs up, although at least it does have the Meto having for now though I suppose.

Thanks Awd. Are you thinking they'll be pretty accurate now at this range or do you think they could still shift a bit either way making a big difference? Cheers in advance. 

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Posted
  • Location: Coopers Edge, Gloucester
  • Location: Coopers Edge, Gloucester

For what it's worth, I have a covering of snow in Gloucester again. Persistent light powder stuff but enough to coat the shed roof etc. Fingers crossed for something more significant later this week

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
4 minutes ago, John88B said:

 

Thanks Awd. Are you thinking they'll be pretty accurate now at this range or do you think they could still shift a bit either way making a big difference? Cheers in advance. 

With regards to Thurs/Fri, I think that potential has gone for our location mate, all 12z modelling unanimously agrees that nothing of note will make it further NE than Exeter.  It's definitely become more favourable for Devon and even Cornwall though, although even here, not particularly heavy for long before fragmenting.

I'd normally forget about what it shows for Saturday too, seeing how this week has gone for us.  The only reason I'm keeping half an eye on it is that it follows the extended Meto forecast I posted earlier quite well (ie remaining colder the further north and east you are in the region with potential for stalling fronts brining snowfall).  It is very much just half an eye for now though.

Personally my confidence for significant snow for our area has now dropped from low to very low.  I'm literally hanging onto the Meto weekend forecast and their associated models, such as the UKV.

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Posted
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
2 minutes ago, AWD said:

With regards to Thurs/Fri, I think that potential has gone for our location mate, all 12z modelling unanimously agrees that nothing of note will make it further NE than Exeter.  It's definitely become more favourable for Devon and even Cornwall though, although even here, not particularly heavy for long before fragmenting.

I'd normally forget about what it shows for Saturday too, seeing how this week has gone for us.  The only reason I'm keeping half an eye on it is that it follows the extended Meto forecast I posted earlier quite well (ie remaining colder the further north and east you are in the region with potential for stalling fronts brining snowfall).  It is very much just half an eye for now though.

Personally my confidence for significant snow for our area has now dropped from low to very low.  I'm literally hanging onto the Meto weekend forecast and their associated models, such as the UKV.

Thanks for taking the time with your detailed reply. Good to have such knowledgeable posters on here. Fingers crossed for Saturday then. 

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Posted
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
9 minutes ago, BARRY said:

image.thumb.png.bff92569d983d88ad304d043662cc26a.png

We really need that laughter button back on here! 

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Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, inc Snow and Wind
  • Location: Poole

You won’t believe this, I just seen an actual snow flake coming out of the sky! The amount of time spent looking at this forum, forecasts and radars has paid off! (Almost)

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Posted
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
2 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Why did they remove it? Especially during covid. We all need a bit of sense of humour during these times.

It was removed because it was being used to troll people apparently. Ie laughing at people in a nasty way if you know what I mean. 

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

Snow falling on the webcam in Southampton again. Doesn't look that heavy but nice to see.

 

Edited by matt111
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

FWIW, the maximum temperature for Bristol on the 12z EC Det over the next 10 DAYS is 3c on Sunday, back to just above freezing into next week.

Just an observation that's all.

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Posted
  • Location: Netley Abbey
  • Location: Netley Abbey
54 minutes ago, AWD said:

Thanks @Mapantz 

Unfortunately, the white flag is being raised with regards to any significant snow for Thurs/Fri.  The 12z EC Det and the 15z high Res UKV keeping any PPN restricted to the Devon area, and even here fairly patchy.  This is the best it gets with regards to Thurs/Fri, so maybe some interest for Devon, not so much for elsewhere.

IMG_20210208_190250.thumb.jpg.218cef93df50434a721221e1f828e904.jpg

The 15z UKV does offer something of interest for more northern and eastern members of the region on Saturday though;

IMG_20210208_190337.thumb.jpg.5a374d75864359675f6b64228f49c207.jpg

IMG_20210208_190403.thumb.jpg.c4ffae8a77a6ce78588d511e0e778455.jpg

IMG_20210208_190430.thumb.jpg.c5188688438989a0cc2a2d0ff0274344.jpg

which aligns to the Meto extended forecast of splitting the region in half, with milder Atlantic sourced air over south western parts and colder air remaining over northern and eastern parts of the region;

IMG_20210208_191013.thumb.jpg.6b00341155ff1c9c1643a51c5ba9a65e.jpg

Our luck, with regards to snowfall, really isn't on our side at the moment.  For my area, IMBY, Thurs/Fri is now all but gone IMO.  I'm not getting overly enthused by Saturday at this stage either, no doubt that will find a way to go boobs up, although at least it does have the Meto support for now though I suppose.

That would be rain for all coastal areas with an onshore breeze...no good

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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

Occasional flurries throughout the evening, as with much of the day... currently -1.4°C after a high of -0.5°C

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I see daytime temps have increased for Wednesday now. By no means warm, but nothing like zero that was being forecast.

No ice days here this week.

The wind has dropped right off too.

Edited by Mapantz
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