Hurricane season 2021

[summer blizzard]

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated this morning in association with a low pressure system located about 150 miles east of Barbados. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight, then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola around the middle of this week. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required today with shorter-than-normal lead times for portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Edited August 9, 2021 by summer blizzard

[matty40s]

Next one building....

 

 

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fred, located about 105 miles west of Great Inagua, Bahamas. 1. Satellite-derived wind data from this morning indicated that a small area of low pressure has developed along a tropical wave about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. However, the low does not quite have a closed circulation, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the weekend while moving generally westward at about 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday, and interests there should monitor its progress. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Edited August 12, 2021 by matty40s

[summer blizzard]

Core survived Haiti but is more or less devoid of convection.

[matty40s]

12 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Core survived Haiti but is more or less devoid of convection.

Are you talking Fred...

 

[matty40s]

Fred's almost dead, but coming in behind could well be Grace...

Which is now TD7...

[karyo]

21 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Fred's almost dead, but coming in behind could well be Grace...

Which is now TD7...

She needs to avoid the Dominican Republic, otherwise she will have the same fate as Fred.

[Had Worse]

Not kept track of whats happening. 

If it skirts North or South of the Dominican, it may have the legs to feed off the GOM. We shall see.

[matty40s]

16 hours ago, Had Worse said:

Not kept track of whats happening. 

If it skirts North or South of the Dominican, it may have the legs to feed off the GOM. We shall see.

 

[matty40s]

[matty40s]

....and do we have a Henri....

 

[matty40s]

 

 

[matty40s]

 

[Lauren]

Conveyor belt is in full swing!

[damianslaw]

Rarely dip in here. Predictions whether this will be a big storm season..

[Derecho]

11 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Rarely dip in here. Predictions whether this will be a big storm season..

I think it will be a fairly active season. Tropical Atlantic SSTs are slightly above average though the multi-variate ENSO index is in fairly strong La Nina territory. An active season but not exceptional like 2017 or 2005 is my best bet.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Interesting FI outlook for the Eastern Pacific side of Mexico, we see a full blown hurricane travel up the Gulf of California. Not sure that has ever happened in my life time! Wonder what implications that would have, given the rarity of that potential occurrence. 

[damianslaw]

6 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think it will be a fairly active season. Tropical Atlantic SSTs are slightly above average though the multi-variate ENSO index is in fairly strong La Nina territory. An active season but not exceptional like 2017 or 2005 is my best bet.

Ok. One of the factors that can enhance odds of a colder winter. Last year was very active but not many high category storms.

[matty40s]

[karyo]

The disturbance in the Caribbean is particularly interesting, All the major models develop when it crosses the Gulf of Mexico in a few days time.

[matty40s]

Indeed....

 

 

Edited August 25, 2021 by matty40s

[Jo Farrow]

An uneasy lull for the Atlantic hurricane season

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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No active storms in the Atlantic but at least 3 disturbance areas are being highlighted with concerns already for developments in the Gulf of Mexico for next week.

A lull at the moment after 8 named storms but looks like it won't be long before 1 or 2 TDs appear

 

 

[matty40s]

Far too early for exact detail but this is very concerning....

https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1430603362228219910?s=20

 

It is very difficult not to see this progressing to Major Hurricane Ida

Edited August 26, 2021 by matty40s

[matty40s]

Literally exploding overnight...

 

 

Edited August 26, 2021 by matty40s

[Eagle Eye]

Here's what GFS says on the matter of the Gulf, has potential to be very dangerous and is looking like it could slam into Louissiana. 

[matty40s]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 505 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of the system south of Jamaica. Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better organized in association with a trough of low pressure located less than 200 miles south of Jamaica. Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is expected to form later today or tomorrow. This system is forecast to move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the Cayman Islands tonight, near Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Given the recent developmental trends, Tropical Storm Warnings for the Cayman Islands and Tropical Storm Watches for western Cuba could be required later today.

 

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible over portions of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands today and tonight, and will likely spread across Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. In addition, this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place

Edited August 26, 2021 by matty40s