Noctilucent Cloud season 2021

[Arnie Pie]

Here we go

[mushymanrob]

As the daisy charts are 2 days old, and are posted quite late, they arent much use on a day to day basis. i mean, to go viewing we need to stay up late and that takes a bit of preparation (whether to drink or not, lol) .

Question... for @Arnie Pie ..... the MAARSY radar charts... these appear to be an ongoing and current data set.... so is this a better way of determining whether there are likely to be NLCs or not? i must admit ive not taken much attention to them before. If theres a strong echo on the right, that should indicate the likelyhood of a NLC showing, yes?.. but a blank blue bit would suggest its not worth going out/staying up..

 

[mushymanrob]

building nicely... viewings should start coming in soon, some have been seen in russia..

 

[Arnie Pie]

Zusammenhang OSWIN-Echos & NLCs - AKM e.V. Forum

FORUM.METEOROS.DE

@mushymanrob

Here`s the web link that i have been using to try and work out that very question....mmmm complicated 

As for this year Aims images which i have just checked.....Their orbit times seem to have changed

for the last few year the photos for the images were taken on the late evening of the date shown.....typically between 21.00 - 00.00

the latest available single orbit images for 20th and 21st are showing a mid morning time

changes the calculations on the clockface theory

i think there will be enough notification via social media and webcam observations tell whether we will get a showing

Happy Hunting

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Arnie Pie said:

Zusammenhang OSWIN-Echos & NLCs - AKM e.V. Forum

FORUM.METEOROS.DE

@mushymanrob

Here`s the web link that i have been using to try and work out that very question....mmmm complicated 

As for this year Aims images which i have just checked.....Their orbit times seem to have changed

for the last few year the photos for the images were taken on the late evening of the date shown.....typically between 21.00 - 00.00

the latest available single orbit images for 20th and 21st are showing a mid morning time

changes the calculations on the clockface theory

i think there will be enough notification via social media and webcam observations tell whether we will get a showing

Happy Hunting

Bugger...ive just posted on TAW about looking at 11 o'clock...lol..

Thanks

[Arnie Pie]

A few webcams to play with

Webcams (aktualisiert 01.05.2021) - AKM e.V. Forum

FORUM.METEOROS.DE

 

[mushymanrob]

faint NLCs currently over the Czech republic

 

[Jamie M]

I say that's a start to the season for the UK.

[mushymanrob]

Thanks for that @Jamie M.

Now it begs the question, which if any of these echoes were they?... im guessing MAARSY will be a few hours "upstream" as the NLCs rotate.

If we can identify the time lapse then we can predict.

[mushymanrob]

Looks like those low latitude clouds at 4 o'clock are what was seen in Scotland on the night of the 26th... but we still need further developments yet

[Rush2019]

10 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Looks like those low latitude clouds at 4 o'clock are what was seen in Scotland on the night of the 26th... but we still need further developments yet

There's a nice photo of this sighting on the Noctilucent clouds around the world facebook forum 26/5/21. They were spotted  from Skye.  Would have posted a screen shot of it, not sure if I would be breaching any share/copy rules.  Nice to see the daisy wheel chart. 

[Jamie M]

35 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

There's a nice photo of this sighting on the Noctilucent clouds around the world facebook forum 26/5/21. They were spotted  from Skye.  Would have posted a screen shot of it, not sure if I would be breaching any share/copy rules.  Nice to see the daisy wheel chart. 

DAISY chart from the 26th, calmed down a bit but good to see the good development over the last week or so!

Edited May 28, 2021 by Jamie M

[mushymanrob]

10 hours ago, Rush2112 said:

There's a nice photo of this sighting on the Noctilucent clouds around the world facebook forum 26/5/21. They were spotted  from Skye.  Would have posted a screen shot of it, not sure if I would be breaching any share/copy rules.  Nice to see the daisy wheel chart. 

yes ive seen that..

[mushymanrob]

9 hours ago, Jamie M said:

DAISY chart from the 26th, calmed down a bit but good to see the good development over the last week or so!

How far away from the centre to those clouds need to be to be seen low on the horizon in the UK? @Arnie Pie / anyone , is there a set distance/latitude?

[Arnie Pie]

From my experience any NLC`s around the 70 - 75° Latitude would give a chance of a low horizon sighting from my advantage

These would be present at around 5° altitude on the Horizon.... shining just above the all consuming smut level

Note; Capella at around 10° altitude

 

Still no change in the orbit timings of Aim satellite ...  UK`s orbit time has changed from late evening to mid morning

AIM - Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere - CIPS Instrument

LASP.COLORADO.EDU

Starry starry nights needed

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Arnie Pie said:

From my experience any NLC`s around the 70 - 75° Latitude would give a chance of a low horizon sighting from my advantage

These would be present at around 5° altitude on the Horizon.... shining just above the all consuming smut level

Note; Capella at around 10° altitude

 

Still no change in the orbit timings of Aim satellite ... [b] UK`s orbit time has changed from late evening to mid morning[/b]

AIM - Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere - CIPS Instrument

LASP.COLORADO.EDU

Starry starry nights needed

Sorry, im confused, do you mean the image isnt published now until mid morning, back 12 odd hours? if so then theyll be pretty useless for predictingbecause theyll be 3 days late.

[Arnie Pie]

Sorry Bob...The times that I am trying to refer too.... are the times that the Aim`s satellite  starts its individual orbit over the UK

agreed Bob It was hard enough to predict 2 days out .... 3 days out is total guess work...with all of the variables that take place

I kind of like that total randomness 

Social media coverage and webcam watching are the only way to 'estimate' whether they will produce over the UK

Still....there might be some clear gaps in the cloud tonight

.....awaiting a chance to livestream and try out a new lens with my DSLR

 

Edited May 29, 2021 by Arnie Pie

[Arnie Pie]

just found this 

NLC forecasting, nowcasting & monitoring | Facebook

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM

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As we are getting more and more members in the group, I thought I’d publish a short info sheet on NLC forecasting and nowcasting. NLC forecasting: Thi

 

[Rush2019]

I remember a tip from @Arnie Pie last season, was to keep an eye on the live web cams in Europe, bearing in mind that anything observed will naturally transit its way to the UK from East to West,  there are no promises, but you know if there is a chance.  Yep, I  agree if the daisy chart is 3 days out it will be difficult to predict, as they shrink and expand randomly.  It's good to see their growth on charts though.

[Arnie Pie]

Weak NlC`s showing on German webcams atm

Noctilucent clouds around the world

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM

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WELCOME TO NLC AROUND THE WORLD! You have landed in a global group specifically dedicated to the mesmerizing noctilucent clouds (NLC), also known as Polar Mesospheric Clouds (PMC) or night-shining...

 

Edited May 29, 2021 by Arnie Pie

[mushymanrob]

15 hours ago, Arnie Pie said:

just found this 

NLC forecasting, nowcasting & monitoring | Facebook

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM

---

As we are getting more and more members in the group, I thought I’d publish a short info sheet on NLC forecasting and nowcasting. NLC forecasting: Thi

 

Yes ive seen that, makes for a pretty depressing read tbh, lol.

i need predictions though, its hard for me to wait up until dusk in the off chance and i need to inform the people on TAW . i dont want to send them out " just in case" , failing to see them is frustrating and off putting...

As for the webcams, thats fine, but which ones? lol theres so many and many perhaps arent relevant to us.

Ive seen pics from last night in Southern England of NLCs .... looks like i missed out on that, electing it was improbable..

[Rush2019]

6 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Yes ive seen that, makes for a pretty depressing read tbh, lol.

i need predictions though, its hard for me to wait up until dusk in the off chance and i need to inform the people on TAW . i dont want to send them out " just in case" , failing to see them is frustrating and off putting...

As for the webcams, thats fine, but which ones? lol theres so many and many perhaps arent relevant to us.

Ive seen pics from last night in Southern England of NLCs .... looks like i missed out on that, electing it was improbable..

Earliest sunset in the UK takes place S.E. Kent, but I can not find a single live cam pointing north that could give us a bit of a heads up for possible sightings.  Don't know if any other members can dig a web cam out that may be of use.  The live cams at Lerwick could be monitored at sunset as a precurser for possible pre-dawn sightings for the UK.  It's a case of all night watching if you can, oh, and yelling at the clouds to bog off.  It would be great if AIMS could be in that 48 hour time frame, using @Arnie Pie clockface method of counting back gave a good indication of possible sightings.  

[mushymanrob]

OK....... the latest AIM chart has some clouds at around 11 o'clock between 70-75 degrees... so we might get a showing tonight and towards dawn... but im finding nothing on the european webcams, yet

 

Edited May 30, 2021 by mushymanrob

[Rush2019]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

OK....... the latest AIM chart has some clouds at around 11 o'clock between 70-75 degrees... so we might get a showing tonight and towards dawn... but im finding nothing on the european webcams, yet

 

I've trawled around the European cams and found nothing.  No reports on NLC facebook.  Lerwick  is shrouded in thick fog.  Lovely clear Northerly views here but can't see anything.  I've also tried to find any web cams that may be on the many oil rig platforms out at sea, no joy.  Good quality clear cams that update the image frequently I tend to use for a quick glance is Flensburg - webcam galore.  Type in ukazy NLC cameras on google, they are Czech images but easy to find.  Virtual astro web site isn't reporting anything.  Not really been much help have I.

[mushymanrob]

8 hours ago, Rush2112 said:

I've trawled around the European cams and found nothing.  No reports on NLC facebook.  Lerwick  is shrouded in thick fog.  Lovely clear Northerly views here but can't see anything.  I've also tried to find any web cams that may be on the many oil rig platforms out at sea, no joy.  Good quality clear cams that update the image frequently I tend to use for a quick glance is Flensburg - webcam galore.  Type in ukazy NLC cameras on google, they are Czech images but easy to find.  Virtual astro web site isn't reporting anything.  Not really been much help have I.

I found nothing on the cams either, but i still went out! lol.. drew a blank but the sky looked like they could appear at any moment... but they didnt. Mind you, its still early for evening sightings. One guy last year on the facebook forum said he never bothers in the evening here in the UK until june..