Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards

[Supacell]

Will it or won't it? That's the big question. It will come down to waiting for the first signs of developments and then radar watching I think. Still a bit of difference between the models. Although the forecasts from Nick F, Dan (Convective Weather) and Estofex in pretty high agreement of the South and East being best placed for a thunderstorm or three later on this evening and overnight. 

Keep on chatting in here, remembering to keep on topic.

Old thread here:

 

Edited June 16, 2021 by Supacell

[Met4Cast]

"Kent Clipper" is being thrown around a lot today, what we're seeing modelled isn't a Kent clipper. A Kent clipper remains mostly in the channel and barely scrapes the extreme E of Kent

Tonights main interest is anywhere E of the IOW, NEwards into EA. 

[sendandreturn]

Do you prefer it when you are right in the path of it all, or would you prefer to view it from a distance?

I prefer the latter t.b.h...esp if you could view something like this..

 

One of my own, taken from Selsey (what you could do with a Kent Clipper)

 

 

Storm over NW London, from the I.O.W

(Not Mine! I WISH!! : all credit to Island Visions Photography)

 

Edited June 16, 2021 by sendandreturn

[Superstormuk]

Kind of glad that I’m in Brighton as current modelling suggests I’m right in the firing line. Although, I’m sure it will be subject to change as we progress closer to this evening. With the intensity of this plume, I reckon some of these storms may be quite intense with impressive light-shows. 

 

My plan is to set my camera up on the beach around half 7 and get some footage of the incoming storms. I’m then considering heading further inland later and getting some more footage from a more elevated position.  Hopefully, I’ll have some decent footage to share with you. 

[philglossop]

What's this....a bit early???

[Sam jackson88]

Dew point for Southampton is fluctuating between 13.8 and 14 at the moment, humidity is increasing and its got the feeling of air charging. Fingers crossed for tonight

[Met4Cast]

For what it's worth, the overnight UKMO model absolutely hammers the Midlands tonight 

[Superstormuk]

5 minutes ago, philglossop said:

What's this....a bit early???

Probably a false positive. However, humidity could trigger some activity. 

Edited June 16, 2021 by Superstormuk

[StormChaseUK]

3 minutes ago, philglossop said:

What's this....a bit early???

false return maybe,  nothing on ATD

[philglossop]

3 minutes ago, Sam jackson88 said:

Dew point for Southampton is fluctuating between 13.8 and 14 at the moment, humidity is increasing and its got the feeling of air charging. Fingers crossed for tonight

Currently showing 15.1 here, and the atmosphere is very oppressive compared to an say an hour ago.  Suns out, but milky towards the South now.

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

For what it's worth, the overnight UKMO model absolutely hammers the Midlands tonight 

Is that from 00z run mate?!!!looks like last nights ukv!!!please be true lol!!as long as it clears by 6 am i will be happy!got a run in the morning!!

[Petorious]

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

For what it's worth, the overnight UKMO model absolutely hammers the Midlands tonight 

I really hope it plays off like this.

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Is that from 00z run mate?!!!looks like last nights ukv!!!please be true lol!!as long as it clears by 6 am i will be happy!got a run in the morning!!

Yeah the 00z run, so a little outdated now.

[dr weather]

14 minutes ago, sendandreturn said:

Do you prefer it when you are right in the path of it all, or would you prefer to view it from a distance?

I prefer the latter t.b.h...esp if you could view something like this..

 

I prefer to be as close as possible. Filmed this waterspout last year from about 3 miles away.

 

 

 

[Norfolk Sheep]

20 minutes ago, sendandreturn said:

Do you prefer it when you are right in the path of it all, or would you prefer to view it from a distance?

I prefer the latter t.b.h...esp if you could view something like this..

 

One of my own, taken from Selsey (what you could do with a Kent Clipper)

 

 

Storm over NW London, from the I.O.W

(Not Mine! I WISH!! : all credit to Island Visions Photography)

 

Just a few miles short is best, close enough to get decent shots but far enough away to avoid the rain. I've managed it once (in 2015), the other times recently it's been grab n go then sit in the van during the deluge. It's always tricky at night to know exactly where everything is, especially in deepest rural Norfolk.....

[Harry]

I am increasingly concerned that there could be a lot of disappointment tonight.

Latest AROME appears to back right off the idea of UK storms, sending them up towards  Benelux and then very little in the early hours. WRF NMM 5KM showing a similar theme. Waiting on the latest EURO4.

These models seem to be aligning with the charts BrickFielder kindly shared on the closed thread; such that the modelled steering winds (from the Brest Peninsula) are now expected to be more NE rather than N/NNE.

I will follow BrickFielder’s advice to back off model gazing at this range, but I am certainly keeping my anticipations in check to avoid disappointment. 

Edited June 16, 2021 by Harry

[Met4Cast]

Just now, Harry said:

I am increasingly concerned that there could be a lot of disappointment tonight.

Latest AROME appears to back right off the idea of UK storms, sending them up towards  Benelux and then very little in the early hours. WRF NMM 5KM showing a similar theme. Waiting on the latest EURO4.

These models seem to be aligning with the charts BrickFielder kindly shared on the closed thread; such that the modelled veering winds (from the Brest Peninsula) are now expected to be more NE rather than N/NNE.

I will follow BrickFielder’s advice to back off model gazing at this range, but I am certainly keeping my anticipations in check to avoid disappointment. 

I'd wait for the AROME ensembles - The 00z was one of the more easterly solutions within the pack

[Ciderwithrosie]

According to my little weather station the humidity is dropping here in Somerset . Was 60% earlier this morning and now 35% . 

Sky becoming hazy as well but as I said humidity dropping in fact now down to 33%  so I think that the forecast for storms further east of me is correct. 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Storm forecasting always tricky and overnight / through tomorrow is no different, radar and Satellite watching will always be most accurate but (hopefully I’m wrong as I love seeing all the storm vids and pics) the one I’d say is most likely to form is between Kent and London (then areas NE of that) going past midnight tonight looks to be associated with a circulation possibly a little developing low  < don’t take that position too literally, that is my main worry a lack of CAPE there looks to be about enough building up in those areas I mentioned through today (though still weakening overnight) and the problem would be any CIN will have a greater effect on storm development the weaker the CAPE. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

A fair bit of cloud moving into NW France at the moment, hoping this will limit max temps since these high temps are needed for surface-based initiation across N France.

Also EURO4 looks more promising for CS England tomorrow morning than tonight.

Edited June 16, 2021 by Ben Sainsbury

[Liam Burge]

Love how most models are predicting it to hit the South East and then the HIRLAM model just has it exactly where I live.

[Delka]

lots of thunder flies out today in the garden, taking that as a good luck for tonight 

[StormChaseUK]

2 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Love how most models are predicting it to hit the South East and then the HIRLAM model just has it exactly where I live.

I have seen situations like this over the last 20 years and they never plan out to how models predict. (like asking which corn in the pan will popcorn and exactly when)     It could form over Bristol and hit Midlands missing SE, it could form over Belgium and miss UK completely.  no one knows.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Delka said:

lots of thunder flies out today in the garden, taking that as a good luck for tonight 

tiny black ones? thrips, not noticed any here yet

[Lord Grogon]

Perfect.