Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2021/22

[Wheezer]

[Wheezer]

[Wheezer]

[Midlands Ice Age]

Thanks for the updates Wheezer.

Due to pleasant(?) circumstances I missed my weekly posting yesterday, but it didn't matter too much,  as changes in the ice become slower.!!!

Latest snow and ice is that snow continues at high levels across the N Hemisphere, with only Western Europe missing out.

Masie sea ice extent is now 14.841kKm2, whereas my last update was at 14,741K Km2, but it has been as high as 14,871K Km2 in the interim . 

It is still unclear as to whether the 15.000K Km2 will be reached as temperatures across the Central Arctic are falling again, (see below),but the outer sea areas remain at slightly higher values.

The daily changes in the Masie sea ice extent values have been (-16K, +7K, +79K, +54K, +5K, -16K and today -13K) for the last week..

All in all fairly typical of changes nearing the end of the sea ice growth cycle.

Masie sea  total ice extent for last few years - (and the promised above DMI Arctic temperature graph) -

 

 

 

The other sea ice data as recorded by JAXA has seen a large 'blip' today..... (but let us see what happens next ?)   

 

          (Thanks to the ASIF)

and is now showing ice values as the 17th highest in the last 23 years since the year 2000. It is now only about 2% lower

than the average for the 2000 decade.

However it is possible that the latest JAXA figure could be revised downwards.  

Growth in the Arctic is still mainly by Bering, the SOO, Barents (still slowly re-icing following the disruptive low), and Baffin, which is still progressing into the St Lawrence Seaway.

So all very much as expected.

With just a few (couple?) of weeks left for the average maximum,  we will be dependent upon one of the outer sea areas seeing some kind of hard freezing conditions to register further gains in extent. But with colder air again established we may well still see on-going increases in thickness (and hence volumes), within the critical central basin.

Will this season be the continuation of the rate of ice declines in the downward trend or will next year be a much slacker (for the ice?), and see a return to normal?

There is no doubt that this year has seen some of the best for ice growth for several years. Will it be a 'one-off?_

We will await the next 3 weeks with interest.

MIA

[Midlands Ice Age]

15 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Thanks for the updates Wheezer.

Due to pleasant(?) circumstances I missed my weekly posting yesterday, but it didn't matter too much,  as changes in the ice become slower.!!!

Latest snow and ice is that snow continues at high levels across the N Hemisphere, with only Western Europe missing out.

Masie sea ice extent is now 14.841kKm2, whereas my last update was at 14,741K Km2, but it has been as high as 14,871K Km2 in the interim . 

It is still unclear as to whether the 15.000K Km2 will be reached as temperatures across the Central Arctic are falling again, (see below),but the outer sea areas remain at slightly higher values.

The daily changes in the Masie sea ice extent values have been (-16K, +7K, +79K, +54K, +5K, -16K and today -13K) for the last week..

All in all fairly typical of changes nearing the end of the sea ice growth cycle.

Masie sea  total ice extent for last few years - (and the promised above DMI Arctic temperature graph) -

 

 

 

The other sea ice data as recorded by JAXA has seen a large 'blip' today..... (but let us see what happens next ?)   

 

          (Thanks to the ASIF)

and is now showing ice values as the 17th highest in the last 23 years since the year 2000. It is now only about 2% lower

than the average for the 2000 decade.

However it is possible that the latest JAXA figure could be revised downwards.  

Growth in the Arctic is still mainly by Bering, the SOO, Barents (still slowly re-icing following the disruptive low), and Baffin, which is still progressing into the St Lawrence Seaway.

So all very much as expected.

With just a few (couple?) of weeks left for the average maximum,  we will be dependent upon one of the outer sea areas seeing some kind of hard freezing conditions to register further gains in extent. But with colder air again established we may well still see on-going increases in thickness (and hence volumes), within the critical central basin.

Will this season be the continuation of the rate of ice declines in the downward trend or will next year be a much slacker (for the ice?), and see a return to normal?

There is no doubt that this year has seen some of the best for ice growth for several years. Will it be a 'one-off?_

We will await the next 3 weeks with interest.

MIA

Just a quick update --  Jaxa has just corrected its double century increase yesterday, with a double century loss this morning. So as suggested yesterday that was a 'technical' error.

Also the drop in the DMI temperature of the Arctic continues with the latest figure dropping below 245K.(-29C).

This is now just just about the coldest for this freezing season now.

MIA

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie gets to within a patch of ice about 20x25Km  of reaching 15,000K Km2.

Today's figure of 14.999,572k Km2 after increases of +49K and +36K over the last 2 days.

Baffin, expanding into the Gulf of Labrador  has been the reason for this increase,  With many other sea areas are remaining reasonably static.

Can these increases  continue for a further day? 

MIA 

[Wheezer]

Rather quick decline since last Bering visit and forecast is for warm winds to dominate for a time

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

On 28/02/2022 at 18:40, Midlands Ice Age said:

Masie gets to within a patch of ice about 20x25Km  of reaching 15,000K Km2.

Today's figure of 14.999,572k Km2 after increases of +49K and +36K over the last 2 days.

Baffin, expanding into the Gulf of Labrador  has been the reason for this increase,  With many other sea areas are remaining reasonably static.

Can these increases  continue for a further day? 

MIA 

Well well... Yesterday Masie broke through the 15,000M Km2 extent 'barrier' with a big leap for the time of year(+49K) up to 15,048K Km.   Mainly as a result of a late 'big' freeze up in the Baffin 'Bay' and Newfoundland.

I looked back at the Masie recent (last 10 years) history of these events -

Year    Day in year and Extent at Max   Date

2022       059                  15.048K?        28/2

2016       061                  15,077K           2/3

2014       055                   15.295K         24/2

2013       073                   15,505K         14/3

2012       082                    15.821K        23/3

2011       067                    15,111K         8/3

 

So - Could still be some more ice to freeze this year, although not at all clear. 

I mentioned above that much of the recent gains have been in the Baffin Sea area.

This area started very slowly back in October and November with a refusal of the Nares Strait to freeze over. It has been slow throughout compared to the last few years,but the last month has seen a rapid expansion both in the Bay of Newfoundland and also out to sea towards Greenland. In the last 10 days alone the extent has increased by +237K Km2.

Whilst this has been happening many of the remaining key sea outer areas have remained  fairly 'static', with recent gains in the SOO just tipping the balance. (last 10 days +108K). 

Whilst Bering has remained static, thanks to the removal of the Northerlies in the area, Barents has never really recovered (in extent terms) after the major low hit the area about a month ago now. Of very recent interest is that whilst the sea is still open to the north west of the Severnya islands, the 'gap' into the Kara has just closed off in the last few days, and also that the pack has also now totally surrounded Svalbard, as well is all the way down to the Bear Isles. 

 

Screenshot 2022-03-02 11.10.14.png

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Dropbox is a free service that lets you bring your photos, docs, and videos anywhere and share them easily. Never email yourself a file again!

So how long now before the ice extent maximum and how high will it get?

All for now...

 MIA

 

[Wheezer]

Bering is down 21% from it peak in mid Feb. And conditions going  forward not great.  But it did manage to get to the highest level since 2013

 

[johncam]

Looks like all downhill from here sad to say 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Not official yet, but I too am calling the maximum of the Masie ice extent now..

A near double century drop (mainly in Barents and Baffin) reported today after a very variable week of changes, and I believe the highs cannot now be made up again this year.

Masie sea ice extent today at 14,836K Km2 after a drop of -192KKm2 today. This follows changes of (-165K, +35K, +73K. -68K -97K,  +122K and +60K)  in the last 8 days.

It has been a very unusual re-freeze season,   which could have been a real eye-opener for many if the major cyclone had not hit the Barents and Kara Seas 5 weeks ago, As it is the maximum at 15,065K Km2 is the highest  for the last 7 seasons.

The spring and summer melt will now take over as the Arctic cold gradually subsides.

I'll now leave it to the ice 'melters' to keep you all updated. Thanks for all your interest and support through the whole season..

Oh yes, and I'll take a mental 'top ' for my prediction of the topping 15,000K  Km2 back in December.

By till next refreeze season....

 MIA

Edited March 10, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Bobd29]

Thanks MIA for an excellent seasonal analysis, this thread is always one of the most interesting from before the start of winter until spring. Look forward to you observations next time around, enjoy your year.

[Wheezer]

Been very windy in the northern Bering the last few days with ice on the move as a result

[claret047]

Thanks MIA.

I look forward to the next refreeze and your very interesting and informative posts on the subject later this year.

In the meantime stay well and enjoy the spring/ summer weather.

Kind Regards

Dave

[Wheezer]

Was a good day for Greenland 

 

 

[nobble]

On 10/03/2022 at 20:20, Midlands Ice Age said:

Not official yet, but I too am calling the maximum of the Masie ice extent now..

A near double century drop (mainly in Barents and Baffin) reported today after a very variable week of changes, and I believe the highs cannot now be made up again this year.

Masie sea ice extent today at 14,836K Km2 after a drop of -192KKm2 today. This follows changes of (-165K, +35K, +73K. -68K -97K,  +122K and +60K)  in the last 8 days.

It has been a very unusual re-freeze season,   which could have been a real eye-opener for many if the major cyclone had not hit the Barents and Kara Seas 5 weeks ago, As it is the maximum at 15,065K Km2 is the highest  for the last 7 seasons.

The spring and summer melt will now take over as the Arctic cold gradually subsides.

I'll now leave it to the ice 'melters' to keep you all updated. Thanks for all your interest and support through the whole season..

Oh yes, and I'll take a mental 'top ' for my prediction of the topping 15,000K  Km2 back in December.

By till next refreeze season....

 MIA

Thanks for your time and work into this , interesting to learn 

fingers crossed for the refreeze next winter 

[Wheezer]

North winds returned last week to the Bering.   Back up to the 30 year norm

[Scott Ingham]

Just a quick one. Not a critisicm. I just feel like this has become the arctic sea ice thread. Which one is the thread to post to.... this one or the one in the climate section thats been their years traditionally?

[Jo Farrow]

Those warm, moist winds 

Record March temperatures at the poles, in rivers of warm air, bring impacts for the sea ice

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

A look back at this week's extreme warmth in the Arctic and Antarctic, as atmospheric rivers pumped warm, moist air poleward.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

2 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:

Those warm, moist winds 

Record March temperatures at the poles, in rivers of warm air, bring impacts for the sea ice

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

A look back at this week's extreme warmth in the Arctic and Antarctic, as atmospheric rivers pumped warm, moist air poleward.

 

Jo...

Thanks for keeping us (me?) updated... It is nice to see a 'team' leader update us.

The weather had certainly changed in the early to mid March period. and at both poles.

 

Could I make a couple of general points about this forum.? 

As mentioned above we have historically had 2 forums on the Arctic Sea ice  (one a the CC section) and the one here about the Northern Hemisphere snow and Ice growth.

Whether it was related to the better NH refreeze or no,  there was only recorded a handful of posts in the CC section forum, but something like 3 -500 posts in this thread.

I have posted very regularly during the refreeze season whether the ice has melted, as well as when it has expanded.

I have always tried to keep impartial in my reporting, as I think that most people just want to access a quick summary of what is happening. Most people on here are interested in the development of the NH winter and the snow's creep southwards and westwards 

In other years we have set up a NH Ice melt thread. Is it worth doing it again? My own thoughts are that it is probably not worth the bother, as it may well not get the coverage required. If it gets really extreme/pronounced then I have no doubt that the CC's will have their say, over on the CC thread..

So I guess I am in favor of keeping things as they are, and then creating a new 2023 winter season thread at the appropriate time. 

Also,,,

Thanks for your item above..

 I actually went to the DMI Arctic temperature graph to check and yes there certainly was an outbreak of milder air over the Arctic. The last week however has seen a return to  more normal temperatures.

As you suggest more cloud has reduced the ability to determine the sea ice extent changes, but the latest charts suggest that it seems to be a fairly normal 'melt' so far.

Looks as if we will soon be seeing some of the cold reaching our shores...   will that mean another spike in temps up there?

As you may well appreciate I do not post much in the 'summer' on here, as I prefer my out-door life normally.

However my recent bad skirmishes with Covid (both the wife and I) has left me with time on my hands, so I have got drawn back in, until I test negative again.  

Hopefully my NHS fast track treatment for Covid will now enable to get out and about again soon.

MIA

Edited March 26, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Wheezer]

Awesome to have the current technologies and more abundant observational powers to more understand the ebbs and flows of both poles and the natural phenomenon of Atmospheric rivers .  Last years south pole record cold 6 month period ever recorded was also remarkable to observe

[Northwest NI]

On 26/03/2022 at 10:46, Midlands Ice Age said:

Jo...

Thanks for keeping us (me?) updated... It is nice to see a 'team' leader update us.

The weather had certainly changed in the early to mid March period. and at both poles.

 

Could I make a couple of general points about this forum.? 

As mentioned above we have historically had 2 forums on the Arctic Sea ice  (one a the CC section) and the one here about the Northern Hemisphere snow and Ice growth.

Whether it was related to the better NH refreeze or no,  there was only recorded a handful of posts in the CC section forum, but something like 3 -500 posts in this thread.

I have posted very regularly during the refreeze season whether the ice has melted, as well as when it has expanded.

I have always tried to keep impartial in my reporting, as I think that most people just want to access a quick summary of what is happening. Most people on here are interested in the development of the NH winter and the snow's creep southwards and westwards 

In other years we have set up a NH Ice melt thread. Is it worth doing it again? My own thoughts are that it is probably not worth the bother, as it may well not get the coverage required. If it gets really extreme/pronounced then I have no doubt that the CC's will have their say, over on the CC thread..

So I guess I am in favor of keeping things as they are, and then creating a new 2023 winter season thread at the appropriate time. 

Also,,,

Thanks for your item above..

 I actually went to the DMI Arctic temperature graph to check and yes there certainly was an outbreak of milder air over the Arctic. The last week however has seen a return to  more normal temperatures.

As you suggest more cloud has reduced the ability to determine the sea ice extent changes, but the latest charts suggest that it seems to be a fairly normal 'melt' so far.

Looks as if we will soon be seeing some of the cold reaching our shores...   will that mean another spike in temps up there?

As you may well appreciate I do not post much in the 'summer' on here, as I prefer my out-door life normally.

However my recent bad skirmishes with Covid (both the wife and I) has left me with time on my hands, so I have got drawn back in, until I test negative again.  

Hopefully my NHS fast track treatment for Covid will now enable to get out and about again soon.

MIA

All the best MIA to you and your wife. Take care.

 

I am also in favour of keeping things as they are as regards the Sea Ice freeze/ melt threads. Midlands Ice Age gives detailed impartial posts on a regular basis which I look forward to reading. If I want to get “political”, which I don’t, I also know where to find those threads.