Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2021/22

[bobbydog]

Latest update-

Very little change from yesterday, plenty of snow forecast in the coming days and we should see advances into Western Europe soon. 

All looking good for now... 

[Midlands Ice Age]

19 hours ago, bobbydog said:

Just for comparison, here are the same dates for 2009, 2010 and 2012. (3 winters with memorable snow events)

2009-

2010-

2012-

I don't think we can draw any conclusions from these really, just a case of wait and see... 

Came to post today's Masie, which after the last week is very mergh...

 

 

But before that I still have no access to the NSIDC data, and the snow looks more interesting today across the North.. 

It just displays a home page that has nothing on it apart from USNIC.

Did you have to or are you already registered?.

 

By the way from your maps above the sea ice now looks identical to me to 2010...... One can but hope...

 

Masie today an increase (breather?) of just (+21K), to a total of 7,748K Km2).. 

Baffin (-7K) and CAA (-8K) again struggled.

 All other areas recorded no real change except for Kara (+18K), which is now in high speed re-freeze mode. 

 

One thing that has caught my eye today though is the Arctic DMI average 80 degrees temperatures. (Produced from ECM data).

These have dropped by a large 3C in the last couple days.  In actual fact from  258.9K to 255.8K (-15C to -18C).

 I had been expecting a fall but this is quite large by current standards.

(By the way there is still no change in the Arctic anomaly data though, which is still at +2.0C).

I have noticed in the past that  large increases in ice extent seems to encourage further temperature falls.

Looking at Climate Re-analyser (GFS), I can see that the major change is in the area of ESS/ Laptev/ Chukchi.

These are the areas that have 'suffered' the large sea ice increases (and also temperature part falls) recently.

They are still higher than the rest of the Arctic, but have cooled by quite a bit. Now I understand that the water vapour will stop any rapid drop in 2meter temperatures, and that this seems to be the reason for it.

The problem I have though is that looking ahead to the 3day and particularly the 10days outlook profile ---- 

We can still see the same 'warmth' profile. This despite the fact that all of Laptev and ESS will be iced shortly as will most of Kara, Beaufort and Chukchi,    and hence I believe will drop to similar temperatures to the rest of the pack at that point.

It would appear, therefore  that the outlook forecast temperature maps do not take any updated 'forecast' for the ice outlook. 

To check this out it would need to see the outlook for the  snow and ice map for 10 days time. But none is produced!!!!.

This is clearly yet another symbiosis situation of which causes which.  Does the ice formation cause a temperature drop due to less moisture (which keeps the temps up) OR has the 'new found' cold just caused the ice to freeze? 

It does seem to lead to this apparent symptom of sudden drops in temperatures forecast  only after the sea freezes over. 

 I will have to check again in the Spring when refreeze takes place to verify.

MIA

 

   -

 

Edited October 24, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[bobbydog]

3 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Came to post today's Masie, which after the last week is very mergh...

 

 

But before that I still have no access to the NSIDC data, and the snow looks more interesting today across the North.. 

It just displays a home page that has nothing on it apart from USNIC.

Did you have to or are you already registered?.

 

By the way from your maps above the sea ice now looks identical to me to 2010...... One can but hope...

 

Masie today an increase (breather?) of just (+21K), to a total of 7,748K Km2).. 

Baffin (-7K) and CAA (-8K) again struggled.

 All other areas recorded no real change except for Kara (+18K), which is now in high speed re-freeze mode. 

 

One thing that has caught my eye today though is the Arctic DMI average 80 degrees temperatures. (Produced from ECM data).

These have dropped by a large 3C in the last couple days.  In actual fact from  258.9K to 255.8K (-15C to -18C).

 I had been expecting a fall but this is quite large by current standards.

(By the way there is still no change in the Arctic anomaly data though which is still at +2C).

I have noticed in the past that a large increases in ice extent seems to encourage further temperature falls.

Looking at Climate Re-analyser (GFS), I can see that the major change is in the area of ESS/ Laptev/ Chukchi.

These are the areas that have 'suffered' the large sea ice increases (and also temperature part falls) recently.

They are still higher than the rest of the Arctic, but have cooled by quite a bit. Now I understand that the water vapour will stop any rapid drop in 2meter temperatures, and that this seems to be the reason for it.

The problem I have though is that looking ahead to the 3day and particularly the 10days outlook profile ---- 

We can still see the same 'warmth' profile. This despite the fact that all of Laptev and ESS will be iced shortly as will most of Kara, Beaufort and Chukchi,    and hence I believe will drop to similar temperatures to the rest of the pack at that point.

It would appear, therefore  that the outlook forecast temperature maps do not take any updated 'forecast' for the ice outlook. 

To check this out it would need to see the outlook for the  snow and ice map for 10 days time. But none is produced!!!!.

This is clearly yet another symbiosis situation of which causes which.  Does the ice formation cause a temperature drop due to less moisture (which keeps the temps up) OR has the 'new found' cold just caused the ice to freeze? 

It does seem to lead to this apparent symptom of sudden drops in temperatures forecast  only after the sea freezes over. 

 I will have to check again in the Spring when refreeze takes place to verify.

MIA

 

   -

 

Hi MIA, they updated the website a while back and I discovered my link didn't work. After a little digging, I found it again.

Try this-

IMS Snow and Ice Products

USICECENTER.GOV

---

U.S. National Ice Center's Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) section for daily Northern Hemisphere snow and ice products.

 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

 

Big increase in the ice-cap over the last few days 

[Wheezer]

 

The animation shows  ice extending over the last 18 days on the left all the way to the Russian shoreline, filling in East Siberian (lower), Laptev (middle) and Kara Seas (top).

[Midlands Ice Age]

It is another good news day>>>>

Masie just updated with a further increase of (+268K Km2), up to to 8,084K Km2.

Barents surprisingly fell slightly by (-9K), but all other areas are getting into freezing gear now.

 See below for 2 screenshots for more details......

As suggested Kara (+88K) is now really spreading back westward towards The Novaya Zemlya Islands. 

Laptev (+36K) is infilling its missed ice free waters. The same is true for the ESS (+11K), where very little is left now.

Chukchi (+17K) and Beaufort (+24K) both resumed freezing after the winds pushing the ice away slightly abated, and we now have 2 places where the ice has connected to the mainland.

Screenshot 2021-10-26 14.50.25.png

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Screenshot 2021-10-26 14.52.01.png

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Elsewhere,  Greenland gained (+15K), whilst the CAA finally starts to infill the islands (+32K) and the CAB (+13K) moves a bit further south towards the 80 latitude line. Hudson Bay starts to freeze around the islands in the North with (+5K).

 In the East Bering (+7K) and the SOO (+3K) begin their movement southwards, much earlier than previous years. 

 

So all very positive today for the sea ice, with JAXA now in 11th position for the date after leaving the 2010's average way behind...

 

Also of interest is that we are now over 2milllion sq Km excess compared to the same date for last year. See the table below for the last 30 years for more details ---

              

The temperature of the Arctic is also well below recent years and any 'spillage' into more temperate latitudes (ours!) could still pack a punch even this early.

There has been some changes in the Arctic weather profile over the last 2 days, and although high pressure is still covering the central cap, low pressure seems to be oozing out from North America.  This may inhibit the temperatures falling quite so quickly in the next few fays.   But we will see....

 

 

 MIA

Edited October 26, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Another day......  and another double century for Arctic Sea Ice.  

Masie sea ice extent up by (+237K Km2) to 8,331K Km2.

The days big guns today were Kara(+64K now in full freeze mode), and suddenly Baffin (+66K) which bursts into life in the central ocean region.

Additionally Beaufort (+15K), Laptev(+32K) and Barents (+21K)  moved to make progress.

Reasonable gains where recorded in the CAA (+15K), and now moving along the Bering Sea (+6K) coastlines, filling in the bays there, whilst the CAB(Central pack+8K) moves on towards the 80 degree latitude line   (Ie approaching  full). 

 See maps for the individual areas below -

            

 

These shows KARA  and Barents.  Barents is noticeable as the ice pack moves South Eastwards towards Svalbard and at the same time starts the freeze around the coasts of Archangel. Temperature are now around -6C in this area of Russia at the moment so expect the freeze to move into Murmansk Bay quite soon.

 

 I was looking into the volume charts produced by DMI today.   (See below)

Just as one does when one is bored...   It really cheered me up!!!!, this was after listening to all 'the oceans are going to fill up  and flood everyone' as per every BBC TV program at the moment..

Comparison of this year with last year. shows that we are 3 to 4 weeks ahead of last year (remember  last year was very slow), but that it is also noticeably ahead of all years going back  for 10 years. Particularly for the Eastern  and Russian sectors.

I find this quite encouraging, especially when one considers we did not really see any ice along the Russian coastline until Nov 16th last year ( shown  below). So in the last 11 months we have moved on a long way, especially considering we are now seeing large amounts of ice in the 1 - 2 meters thickness, where it was open ocean last year, and was much thinner in each of the last 10 years..

Admittedly the weather conditions for the Arctic have been perfect for the last 3 months.  But it shows what is possible,

Perhaps these conditions were prevalent when the ice built during the 1960's and 70s?.

           

Today this year                                                     Today last year                                               Last year Nov 16th       

 

                

            26/10/2019                                                      26/10/2018                                                   26/10/2017

 

               

       26/10/2016                                                        20/10/2015                                                          20/10/2014

 

            

      26/10/2013                                                           26/10/2012                                               26/10/2011   

 

Only 2013 comes close and that year the Beaufort sea was weaker.

An interesting year as this year is starting out!! Can it persist?

MIA     

Edited October 27, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Russia now about 60% snowbound - in October !!

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

11 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Russia now about 60% snowbound - in October !!

 

Huge cold anomalies on the continent, North America getting some too!  Arctic is pretty widespread cold this year.  Let’s see where thus goes.  Cold Arctic, cold Continents…interesting 

 

BFTP

[Midlands Ice Age]

Missed out yesterday (busy) on Masie sea ice situation.

Well Masie actually fell by (-47K KM2 ) to 8,287K KM2.

 Reason was that the sudden big ice increase in Baffin yesterday (+74K) was clearly not what it appeared (I was surprised),  and the overall increase was paired back to just (+32K) with a (-42K) yesterday.

A simialr effect was also seen in the CAA.

I am guessing that the previous increases were probably due to a large amounts of snowfall in these areas and settling out on the water (As per Aleman's suggestions in the past). The increased magnification of AMSR2 satellite at 4K against 24K for other products is probably the reason for this phenomenon being picked up by Masie..

Encouragingly,   for the Eastern (mainly Russian) areas Masie still managed positive values, with Kara (+27K) the best and the others all in single figures.

Jaxa data has remained reasonably constant during this period with +160K followed by +60K and +80K over the last 3 days.

Back later with today's sea ice data. 

 MIA 

  

Edited October 29, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[cheeky_monkey]

21 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Huge cold anomalies on the continent, North America getting some too!  Arctic is pretty widespread cold this year.  Let’s see where thus goes.  Cold Arctic, cold Continents…interesting 

 

BFTP

is it?? NA has been anomalously warm thus far this Autumn..there have been no arctic outbreaks at all this season which is unusual ..which has imo helped arctic sea ice build up

[Midlands Ice Age]

4 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

is it?? NA has been anomalously warm thus far this Autumn..there have been no arctic outbreaks at all this season which is unusual ..which has imo helped arctic sea ice build up

Yep NA has been 'warmish', except possibly for the far west coast. Arctic outbreaks have been limited there.

But they have been everywhere this year so far. Anticyclones over the Arctic have kept the cold air bottled up there.... so far...

 

Masie sea ice extent increased today by (+93K) to a total of 8,382K Km2.  

A total of 288K Km2 for the 3 days including the negative value yesterday. So an average of 96K Km2 each day. This is about 20K below the normal for this time of the year.

Once again we see the Eastern sector all coming in with positive values.

Beaufort (+18K), Chukchi(+8K) are now firming up the pack to the mainland.

ESS (+1K), and Laptev (+5K) are now virtually full.

Kara (+55K) and Barents (+9K)  continue to take up the running, and both show patches of ice out in the open ocean   (good news for future ice growth).

Greenland (+22K) gained whilst all other western oceans declined slightly.

The SOO has started to ice over in the smaller bays - really for the first time.

 

For the next stages of the freeze we will need to see the western sea ice also start to rapidly ice over.

 

What is apparent this year is the fact that the inner seas with the Arctic circle are icing over much more quickly than for about 10 years. Already a large area of ice over 1.5 meters is recorded in both ESS  and Laptev, this in areas where ice had not even  formed in some years of this period. This must be positive for the future of the ice within the Arctic.  It possibly is a prelude to a year of  gains in multi-year sea ice. A rarity in the recent past.

Also .. I suspect,  due to the fact that the cold has been bottled up this freezing season so far,  we can also see that there is a smaller amount of ice in the more peripheral oceans.  However since this ice will melt out in the areas anyway  it really is of only a little concern..

MIA

Edited October 29, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Geordiesnow]

On 28/10/2021 at 18:37, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Huge cold anomalies on the continent, North America getting some too!  Arctic is pretty widespread cold this year.  Let’s see where thus goes.  Cold Arctic, cold Continents…interesting 

 

BFTP

Is it!? Ice extent has been growing rapidly but the Arctic for the most part has been above average. Thanks to heat releasing from the Laptev sea and the continued warmth over Arctic Canada. I think the CAA extent is the lowest by a countrymile and I would not be surprised if regions such as baffin Bay and Hudson Bay especially will follow suit. 

The only cool/cold spots has been around the Chukchi and Bering seas, everywhere else is above average. 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

12 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

Is it!? Ice extent has been growing rapidly but the Arctic for the most part has been above average. Thanks to heat releasing from the Laptev sea and the continued warmth over Arctic Canada. I think the CAA extent is the lowest by a countrymile and I would not be surprised if regions such as baffin Bay and Hudson Bay especially will follow suit. 

The only cool/cold spots has been around the Chukchi and Bering seas, everywhere else is above average. 

 

GS..

 Thanks for appearing on here...

I agree in general with your comments, but I would like to add a rider to your comments -

You are correct that CAA, Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay are way behind. (see below).  But overall we have seen a huge effect and this has been strongly positive (see above and the details further below).

           

 

and just a sample of those  that are more typical of this year -

       

OK I'll add in the Laptev as well then -

  and just for luck    

 

'

Both the ESS and Laptev have lost a lot of heat this year. I believe it was caused by the Anticyclone which has been sat more or less on top of the pole. This has (1) enabled huge heat loss from these seas under cloudless starlight skies and (2) enabled the colder night air to just circulate around the pole having crossed and even been re-enforced by the cold on Greenland.. This is what seems to me that has enabled  the cooling of the temperatures,  and this  much more quickly than for a few years.

Currently we seem to still be getting the same effect extending into Kara, and even possibly into Barents (see above).

I do appreciate that it is looking as though the days of the anticyclone dominating the central Arctic are probably numbered though.

As discussed with Cheeky Monkey in the post above there has been a distinct lack of northerly outbreaks anywhere across the northern hemisphere so far this year. I think there was one across the Bering Straits, and one into central Europe but that is about it so far.

The last 5 - 10 years, however, have seen a preponderance of them, (especially in North America) at this time of year, and  hence the huge difference we have seen in North American temperatures and ice development this year. 

My position at the moment is that this is positive for the ice outlook. The 'new' ice being formed is within the Arctic itself and is more likely to have a more long- lasting effect. Any ice outside the Arctic Ocean is less likely to survive the summer, and so in a sense the past 10 years of pushing the cold out early has had a negative overall effect on the ice totals.

Its early days yet in the re-freeze though.

MIA

 

  

 

Edited October 30, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age
Trying to remove the extra graphs at the end

[Midlands Ice Age]

Another poor one today by Masie.

An increase of just (+22K) to a total of 8,404KKm2. Gains seem to be stalling now that most of the central Arctic has been iced over. 

The fly in the ointment today was Baffin Bay (-74K) which once again wiped out most of the gains made in the Russian oceans.

Baffin Bay has now almost made it back to its starting position, so I expect that it will start to give some large positive values again soon. Then we will see the extent really rocket forward again.

MIA 

[throwoff]

Time for another 'where were we in 2010' check.

Todays chart, very nice to see how well the ice has filled in -

Which when compared to 2020 is a MASSIVE improvement -

 

Then looking at the famous 2010 picture, does the ice remind you of anything....!  -

[joggs]

2 hours ago, throwoff said:

Time for another 'where were we in 2010' check.

Todays chart, very nice to see how well the ice has filled in -

Which when compared to 2020 is a MASSIVE improvement -

 

Then looking at the famous 2010 picture, does the ice remind you of anything....!  -

Have you got a link for these maps please?.

TIA

[throwoff]

20 minutes ago, joggs said:

Have you got a link for these maps please?.

TIA

link

[Midlands Ice Age]

I am still getting a front page with no data for the  link above, and cannot get access to the graphs.

 Anyone else having  problems accessing this data?

Anyway last 2 days of Masie have been fairly average (just below) with no real sign just yet of an improvement in the Western Arctic sea areas.

 Masie total extent is now 8,528K Km2 after increases of (+52K and +72k Km2) in the last 2 days.

Growth has now stopped in both the ESS (+0K) and Laptev (+0K) as they have filled.

Beaufort (+22K and +10K) and Chukchi (+11k and (+6K) are now rapidly approaching being full, as the ice is now bypassing them and is starting  to appear into the Bering Seas (+3K and +6K).

Kara (+18K) and (+14K) is growing steadily, but Beaufort is stuttering a bit  (-2K and +3K).

Greenland has had 2 positive days for the first time for a while (+5K and +13K), as also has had Central (+3Kand +8K).

The laggards are still the North American sea areas with Baffin (-5K and 0) and the CAA (-3K and +17K) is still very weak..

Hudson still in 'watch and wait' mode, at (0 and -3K)..

 I think that the outlook  for ice in the US has improved in the last couple of days. 

A depression has exactly aligned itself up the Baffin Bay, and this is expected to pull much colder air into northern and North Eastern Canada, under the influence of high pressure..

     and in 3 days time    

This will increase the ice in the CAA and a little later in Hudson Bay, but ice in Baffin itself will not change that much. 

 The last months anticyclone over the pole is gradually being weakened and displaced somewhat, so a change is on the cards.

Temperatures are now falling again after a 2 day rise according to the DMI dataset.

  

 

Sea ice growth has excelled within the Arctic Basin. Let us see if this new found cold will lead to an increase in the more peripheral sea areas.

 MIA 

[Wheezer]

Since 2012 through October.  A living, breathing Arctic 

 

 

 

[Northwest NI]

On 01/11/2021 at 23:02, Wheezer said:

Since 2012 through October.  A living, breathing Arctic 

 

 

 

Last year is horrible to look at on that gif

This year a lot healthier.

[throwoff]

1 hour ago, Northwest NI said:

Last year is horrible to look at on that gif

This year a lot healthier.

100% much, much healthier year

[Wheezer]

[Midlands Ice Age]

Finally some really interesting weather over the Arctic.   (not good for anyone up there!)

As suggested yesterday the days of high pressure dominance have ended with a vicious low pressure area over Kara and ESS intersect, and a low between Svalbard and Jan Mayen Isles, together with a low over the  Baffin Bay which has suddenly developed a separate center  in the north.

 

These have  produced some really nasty conditions with the low temperatures.

This has resulted in severe tempest in the vicinity to the West of the Wrangle Isles; and seems to have dumped snow on the oceans of the North of Baffin Bay (same as last week). This has resulted in a large gain for the Baffin Bay sea ice on Masie  (see below). This together with a stalling of the ice front to the west of Jan Mayen..

So what does Masie make of it?

Well extent increased by (+128K) to 8,656K Km2.

This includes small gains in the Russian sea areas. with Chukchi (+9K) and Kara (+18K) and Barents (+8K).

Greenland added (+9K) whilst Baffin added  (+20K) - which I think is snow-ice (see below), which will probably disappear quite quickly. CAA (+57K) - as I suggested - suddenly spurted ahead.

Screenshot 2021-11-02 16.48.47.png

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  The next few days are looking more and more interesting.

MIA 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Great stuff guys, this is imo the result of the end of the last 3 x 20 year pulse of Atlanticisation of the Arctic Ocean (60 year cycle and no new pulse for 60 yrs).  Ended 2018/9 so lag takes 2020 into account.  The rebound looks good, with the La Nina (which I think a Nina footprint will be more apparent this winter).  Alaska already suffering colder temps and more snow due to the improvement of ice and Siberia registering serious early cold.

 

BFTP