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October 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    (1) October C.E.T. averages and extremes

    Warmest third 1981-2020 bold, middle third italic and coldest third underlined ...

     

    20.2 ... warmest day, 1st 1985

    20.1 ... second warmest day, 1st 2011

     

    13.3 ... warmest Oct 2001

    13.1 ... second warmest Oct 2005

    13.0 ... third warmest Octs, 1969 and 2006

    12.9 ... fifth warmest Oct, 1995

    12.8 ... sixth warmest Oct 1921

    12.7 ... seventh warmest Oct  and warmest of 19th century 1831

    12.6 ... eighth warmest Octs 1959, 2011

    12.5 ... tenth warmest Octs 1968, 2013, 2014

    12.4 ... 13th warmest Oct 2017

    12.3 ... tied 14th and warmest of 18th century 1731 (with 1811)

    12.1 and 12.2 ... have never occurred in all 362 years

    12.0 ... only occurrence was 1818 (16th warmest)

    11.9 ... 1990 (from here down to coldest months, occurrences including ties before 1981 are not listed)

    11.8 ... 

    11.7 ... 1989, 1996

    11.6 ... 2009

    11.5 ... 

    11.4 ... 

    11.3 ...

    11.2 ... mean 2001-2020

    11.1 ... 1984

    11.0 ... average for 1990-2019, 1989-2018, 1988-2017 (highest 30-yr avg)  ... ... 1985, 1986, 2015

    10.9 ... average for 1991-2020 ... mean 1986-2015 ... ... ... 2007, 2016

    10.8 ...

    10.7 ... average for 1981-2010 ... ... ... 1999

    10.6 ... mean 1961-1990 ... ... ... 1998, 2018

    10.5 ... 1983, 2004, 2020

    10.4 ... mean 1971-2000 ... ... ... 1988

    10.3 ... 2000, 2010

    10.2 ... mean 1901-2000 ... ... ... 1991, 1994, 1997

    10.1 ... 1982, 2002

    10.0 ... 2019

     9.9 ...

     9.8 ...

     9.7(3) ... mean for all 362 years 1659-2020 ... ... ... 1987, 2008, 2012

     9.6 ...

     9.5 .... mean 1801-1900

     9.4 .... mean 1701-1800

     9.3 .... mean 1659-1700

     9.2 ... 2003

     8.6 ... 1981

     8.5 ... 1993

     7.8 .... tied 26th coldest Oct, coldest Oct recent past, 1974 and 1992

     7.5 .... tied 8th coldest Oct, coldest Oct 20th century 1905

     6.9 ... fifth coldest Oct 1896

     6.5 .... tied 3rd coldest Octs, 1683 and 1692

     6.4 .... second coldest Oct 1817

     5.3 .... coldest Oct 1740

     0.3 .... coldest day 29th, 1895 (since daily records began in 1772 -- 1740 could have produced a colder day)

    __________________ _ _ _ 

    Enter your CET forecast by Thursday September 30th at midnight, or with increasing late penalties during the first three days of October.

    ========================================================================================

    (2) Optional E.W.P. forecast contest

     

    218.1 mm __ 1903 _ wettest 1766-2020... also wettest month of any name

    188.0 mm __ 2000 _ wettest 1981-2020 (second wettest all Octobers).

    180.2 mm __ 1987 _ third wettest October

    163.9 mm __ 2020 _ 8th wettest October

    148.8 mm __ 2019 _ t25 wettest (with 1846)

    104.1 mm __ mean for 1981-2010

    102.9 mm __ mean for 1991-2020

     96.1 mm __ mean for all 255 Octobers 1766 to 2020

     46.0 mm ___2016 _ driest 1981-2020 (46.7 in 1985 was a close second) (27th, 29th driest Octobers)

     17.2 mm ___1978 _ driest since 1809 (1969 was close at 17.5 mm) (4th and 5th driest Octobers)

    __8.8 mm __ 1781 _ driest 1766-2020 ... 1809 _ 10.9 mm and 1784 _ 15.7 mm also drier than 1978

    note also: October is the wettest month 1981-2010 although November is wettest 1991-2020, and December is also wetter than October in that 30-year period.

    The wettest 30-year average for October was 106.9 mm for 1865-1894, almost matched recently by 106.1 mm for 1986 - 2015. The driest 30-year average for October was 77.1 mm for 1946-75. 

    __________________________ _ _ _ _________________________________________________________

    Recent Oct EWP ... 148.4 mm _ 2019 ... 75.8 mm _ 2018 ... 51.5 mm _ 2017 ... 46.0 mm _ 2016 ... 68.4 mm _ 2015,

    ... ... ... ... 118.3 mm __ 2014, 157.6 mm __ 2013 ... 127.7 mm __ 2012 ... 68.4 mm __ 2011 ... 84.2 mm __ 2010.

    _________________________________________________________________________________________

    Enter your EWP forecast with your CET forecast, same deadlines apply. 

    Good luck ! ! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

    11.3C and 113mm please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Ice days, clear skies, blizzards. Summer: cool and dry
  • Location: Manchester

    10.5C and 105mm rain pls 

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    11.1c and 129mm please. 

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    Posted
  • Location: West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: West Midlands

    I can see October being quite a contrast to this month and last, as Mother Nature always seems to balance things out eventually.

    For this reason, I'd like to go for 9.1°c and 160ml please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

    12.8°C and 121.4mm for me please.

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    Posted
  • Location: South ockendon essex
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms and HEAVY snow
  • Location: South ockendon essex

    Im hoping its not to wet as my garden floods so easily!12.2 and 70 mm please . 

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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT

    October 12.4c I think it could be quite a wet month 110 mm precipitation. Thank you

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    A guess of 10.2*C please along with 90mm rainfall. Do feel it could be a pretty unsettled month overall and quite cool at times. A colder spell with some wintry showers to possibly finish the month, especially over Northern high ground. Perhaps also one or two odd warmer, drier, spells getting into the mix at times giving one or two last tastes of Summer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    11.4C so warm. Rainfall 70mm

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    Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

    10.5c and 95mm thank you please

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    11.3C and 65.2mm.  Cool spells near both ends of the month, warm in the middle.

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

    11.1c cheers

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