October 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

(1) October C.E.T. averages and extremes

Warmest third 1981-2020 bold, middle third italic and coldest third underlined ...

 

20.2 ... warmest day, 1st 1985

20.1 ... second warmest day, 1st 2011

 

13.3 ... warmest Oct 2001

13.1 ... second warmest Oct 2005

13.0 ... third warmest Octs, 1969 and 2006

12.9 ... fifth warmest Oct, 1995

12.8 ... sixth warmest Oct 1921

12.7 ... seventh warmest Oct  and warmest of 19th century 1831

12.6 ... eighth warmest Octs 1959, 2011

12.5 ... tenth warmest Octs 1968, 2013, 2014

12.4 ... 13th warmest Oct 2017

12.3 ... tied 14th and warmest of 18th century 1731 (with 1811)

12.1 and 12.2 ... have never occurred in all 362 years

12.0 ... only occurrence was 1818 (16th warmest)

11.9 ... 1990 (from here down to coldest months, occurrences including ties before 1981 are not listed)

11.8 ... 

11.7 ... 1989, 1996

11.6 ... 2009

11.5 ... 

11.4 ... 

11.3 ...

11.2 ... mean 2001-2020

11.1 ... 1984

11.0 ... average for 1990-2019, 1989-2018, 1988-2017 (highest 30-yr avg)  ... ... 1985, 1986, 2015

10.9 ... average for 1991-2020 ... mean 1986-2015 ... ... ... 2007, 2016

10.8 ...

10.7 ... average for 1981-2010 ... ... ... 1999

10.6 ... mean 1961-1990 ... ... ... 1998, 2018

10.5 ... 1983, 2004, 2020

10.4 ... mean 1971-2000 ... ... ... 1988

10.3 ... 2000, 2010

10.2 ... mean 1901-2000 ... ... ... 1991, 1994, 1997

10.1 ... 1982, 2002

10.0 ... 2019

 9.9 ...

 9.8 ...

 9.7(3) ... mean for all 362 years 1659-2020 ... ... ... 1987, 2008, 2012

 9.6 ...

 9.5 .... mean 1801-1900

 9.4 .... mean 1701-1800

 9.3 .... mean 1659-1700

 9.2 ... 2003

 8.6 ... 1981

 8.5 ... 1993

 7.8 .... tied 26th coldest Oct, coldest Oct recent past, 1974 and 1992

 7.5 .... tied 8th coldest Oct, coldest Oct 20th century 1905

 6.9 ... fifth coldest Oct 1896

 6.5 .... tied 3rd coldest Octs, 1683 and 1692

 6.4 .... second coldest Oct 1817

 5.3 .... coldest Oct 1740

 0.3 .... coldest day 29th, 1895 (since daily records began in 1772 -- 1740 could have produced a colder day)

__________________ _ _ _ 

Enter your CET forecast by Thursday September 30th at midnight, or with increasing late penalties during the first three days of October.

========================================================================================

(2) Optional E.W.P. forecast contest

 

218.1 mm __ 1903 _ wettest 1766-2020... also wettest month of any name

188.0 mm __ 2000 _ wettest 1981-2020 (second wettest all Octobers).

180.2 mm __ 1987 _ third wettest October

163.9 mm __ 2020 _ 8th wettest October

148.8 mm __ 2019 _ t25 wettest (with 1846)

104.1 mm __ mean for 1981-2010

102.9 mm __ mean for 1991-2020

 96.1 mm __ mean for all 255 Octobers 1766 to 2020

 46.0 mm ___2016 _ driest 1981-2020 (46.7 in 1985 was a close second) (27th, 29th driest Octobers)

 17.2 mm ___1978 _ driest since 1809 (1969 was close at 17.5 mm) (4th and 5th driest Octobers)

__8.8 mm __ 1781 _ driest 1766-2020 ... 1809 _ 10.9 mm and 1784 _ 15.7 mm also drier than 1978

note also: October is the wettest month 1981-2010 although November is wettest 1991-2020, and December is also wetter than October in that 30-year period.

The wettest 30-year average for October was 106.9 mm for 1865-1894, almost matched recently by 106.1 mm for 1986 - 2015. The driest 30-year average for October was 77.1 mm for 1946-75. 

__________________________ _ _ _ _________________________________________________________

Recent Oct EWP ... 148.4 mm _ 2019 ... 75.8 mm _ 2018 ... 51.5 mm _ 2017 ... 46.0 mm _ 2016 ... 68.4 mm _ 2015,

... ... ... ... 118.3 mm __ 2014, 157.6 mm __ 2013 ... 127.7 mm __ 2012 ... 68.4 mm __ 2011 ... 84.2 mm __ 2010.

_________________________________________________________________________________________

Enter your EWP forecast with your CET forecast, same deadlines apply. 

Good luck ! ! 

[Stationary Front]

12.00 please with 110mm

[Bobd29]

11.3C and 113mm please.

[NeilN]

10.0 and 88mm please  

[Frigid]

10.5C and 105mm rain pls 

[SteveB]

11.1c and 129mm please. 

[Typhoon John]

11.8c please

[feb1991blizzard]

11.4c and 80mm please.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I can see October being quite a contrast to this month and last, as Mother Nature always seems to balance things out eventually.

For this reason, I'd like to go for 9.1°c and 160ml please.

[Polar Gael]

12.8°C and 121.4mm for me please.

[Shillitocettwo]

   I see October being quite mixed but on the mild to very mild side and rather wet. 

   12.5.C and 99mm please

[snowsummer]

Im hoping its not to wet as my garden floods so easily!12.2 and 70 mm please . 

[Summer18]

11.8C & 98mm thanks 

Edited September 24, 2021 by Summer18

[virtualsphere]

10.8C and 74mm please

[syed2878]

October 12.4c I think it could be quite a wet month 110 mm precipitation. Thank you

[Summer Sun]

11.2c for me please

[BlueHedgehog074]

A guess of 10.2*C please along with 90mm rainfall. Do feel it could be a pretty unsettled month overall and quite cool at times. A colder spell with some wintry showers to possibly finish the month, especially over Northern high ground. Perhaps also one or two odd warmer, drier, spells getting into the mix at times giving one or two last tastes of Summer.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

10.8C and 175mm

[The PIT]

11.4C so warm. Rainfall 70mm

[DR(S)NO]

10.5c and 95mm thank you please

[Thundery wintry showers]

11.3C and 65.2mm.  Cool spells near both ends of the month, warm in the middle.

[Dancerwithwings]

11.1c cheers

[reef]

Slightly milder and wetter than average:

11.7C and 115mm

[Weather-history]

11.1C and 80mm

[Leo97t]

12.0c and 90mm