October 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Derecho]

I'll go for 11.6C, seasonal, variable temperatures and unsettled but with notable mild phases outweighing the chillier ones.

[damianslaw]

A very mixed month ahead, alot of wet weather but some lengthy drier spells at times. Perhaps a shot or two of cold weather later in the month. 10.5 degrees.

[davehsug]

11.5C & 92mm please

[Roger J Smith]

Working on table of entries, the current consensus values are 11.1 C and 99 mm. 

These values have not been taken in the vicinity of the bulk of CET forecasts ... 12.3, 11.0 and 10.1.

Yes Don, 2006 came to mind when I was thinking of where to punt, also game theory, I need a big hit to keep advancing. 

Hoping that Sam will drag up a lot of subtropical air and leave it behind. 

[rwtwm]

11.3c and 91mm please

[Don]

32 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Yes Don, 2006 came to mind when I was thinking of where to punt, also game theory, I need a big hit to keep advancing. 

Well, I hope you don’t foresee a similar winter to follow, although I did receive a modest snowfall in January 2007 and a decent but short lived snow event in February!   However, I will be interested as always to hear your thoughts regarding the coming winter.

Edited September 30, 2021 by Don

[J10]

11.3c and 110mm.

[Kentish Man]

10.1C please

[February1978]

11.0c and 120mm please

[Roger J Smith]

Table of forecasts for October 2021

Numbers in brackets refer to order of entry. 

CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER ______________________ CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER

13.1 _ 85.7 _ Roger J Smith ( 34 ) ________________10.9 _ ------ _ Mark Bayley ( 25 )

13.0 _110.0_summer8906 ( L1-3 ) ______________ 

12.8 _121.4_ Polar Gael ( 8 ) ____________________ 10.9 _ 85.0 _ pegg24 ( 26 )

12.5 _ 99.0 _ shillitocettwo ( 9 ) _________________ 10.9 _112.0_ Emmett Garland ( 30 )

12.4 _110.0_ syed2878 ( 13 ) ____________________ 10.9 _ 81.0 _ Stevew ( 42 )

12.2 _ 70.0 _ snowsummer ( 10 ) ________________ 10.9 _105.0_ Don ( 45 )

12.2 _145.0_prolonged SnowLover ( L1-2 ) ______ 

12.1 _ 80.0 _ Ed Stone ( 28 ) _____________________ 10.9 _102.9_ 1991-2020 average

12.0 _110.0_ Stationary Front ( 1 ) _______________10.8 _ 74.0 _ virtualsphere ( 12 )

12.0 _ 90.0 _ Leo97t ( 23 ) ________________________10.8 _175.0_ I Remember Atlantic 252 ( 16 )

11.9 _134.9_ coldest winter ( 37 ) ________________ 10.8 _ 99.0 _ stargazer ( 33 )

11.8 _ ------ _ Typhoon John ( 6 ) __________________ 10.7 _102.0_ Feb1991Blizzard ( 32 )

11.8 _ 98.0 _ Summer18 ( 11 ) ____________________10.7 _ 93.0 _ Mulzy ( 43 )

11.8 _118.0_ Mr Maunder ( 38 ) __________________ 10.7 _ 86.0 _ seaside60 ( 44 )

11.7 _115.0_ Reef ( 21 ) ___________________________10.7 _104.1_ 1981-2010 average

11.6 _112.0_ Weather 26 ( 24 ) ___________________ 10.6 _ 60.0 _ sundog ( 27 )

11.6 _ 60.0 _ summer blizzard ( 29 ) ______________ 10.5 _105.0_ Frigid ( 4 )

11.6 _ ------ _ Quicksilver1989 ( 48 ) _______________ 10.5 _ 95.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 18 )

11.5 _ 92.0 _ davehsug ( 50 ) ______________________ 10.5 _105.0_ Godber 1 ( 40 )

11.4 _ 70.0 _ The PIT ( 17 ) ________________________ 10.5 _ ------ _ damianslaw ( 49 )

11.3 _113.0_ bobd29 ( 2 ) _________________________ 10.4 _ 99.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 41 )

11.3 _ 65.2 _ Thundery Wintry Showers ( 19 ) _____ 10.4 _117.0_noname_weather ( 47 ) 

11.3 _121.0_ Jamie M ( 35 ) ________________________10.3 _103.0_snowray ( 46 ) 

11.3 _ 91.0 _ rwtwm ( 51 ) _________________________10.2 _ 90.0 _ DiagonalRedLine ( 15 )

11.3 _110.0_ J10 ( 52 ) _____________________________10.1 _ ------ _ Kentish Man ( 53 )

11.2 _ ------ _ Summer Sun ( 14 ) ___________________ 10.0 _ 88.0 _ Neil N ( 3 )

11.2 _ ------ _ Duncan McAlister ( L1-1 ) ______________9.9 _ 95.0 _ jonboy ( 36 )

11,2 _ 80.0 _ Jeff C ( L3-1 ) __________________________

11.1 _129.0_ SteveB ( 5 ) ____________________________9.9 _105.8_ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 39 )

11.1 _ 80.0 _ weather-history ( 22 ) _________________ 9.8 _ 70.0 _ daniel* ( L2-1 ) 

11.1 _ ------ _ dancerwithwings ( 20 ) ________________ 9.1 _160.0_ Weather Enthusiast91 ( 7 )

11.1 _106.0_ Walsall Wood Snow ( 31 ) ______________ 

11.1 _ 99.0 _ consensus

11.0_120.0_February1978 ( 54 ) __________________

__ 54 on-time entries, plus three so far marked as one day late, one more two days late, and

__ __ another three days late, 59 total ...

__ __ consensus 11.1 

__________________________________________

EWP forecasts in order

175_IRem ... 160_we91 ... 145_pSL^... 134.9_cw ... 129_ste ... 121.4_pg ... 121_JamieM ... 120_Feb78

118_MrM ... 117_non ... 115_Reef ... 113_bobd ... 112_wx26, EG ... 110_SF, syed, J10, sum8906^

106_WWS ... 105.8_KW ... 105_frig, Godb, Don ... 104.1_81-10 ... 103_snow ... 102.9_91-20 ...

102_Feb91 ... 99_shil, star, MIA ... 98_sum18 ... 95_DR(S), jon ... 93_mul ... 92_dave

 91_rwtwm ...  90_DRL, leo ...88_NN ... 86_sea ... 85.7_RJS ... 85_pegg ... 81_stevew

 80_wx-his, EdS, Jeff^^^ ... 74_virt ...  70_snsum, PIT, dan*^^ ... 65.2_TWS ... 60_sun, SB ... 

 

47 on time entries plus two marked one day late ( ^ ), one more two days late ( ^^ ) and a

third marked three days late ( ^^^ ) .. 51 total ...

_ consensus 99.0 mm

=====================================================

late entries will be added to tables, you can continue to enter until the end of the day Sunday 3rd October. 

TABLE POSTED AT 0002h Friday 1st October, late penalties begin now ...

 

Edited October 8, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[Duncan McAlister]

11.2 for me please

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I’ll go with a mild 12.2c and 145mm please.

[Summer8906]

Hope this is not too late. 13.0 and 110mm.

But unlike the last two, not constantly unsettled with some warm sunny spells, particularly the second and third weeks. Grot returns for the last week perhaps, though at least we hold on to BST until the 30th this year so not as miserable as it could be. Perhaps similarities to 2001, 2005, and 2006.

Edited October 1, 2021 by Summer8906

[Roger J Smith]

1981-2010 CET averages, cumulative and 1772 - 2020 extreme values

________________________________________________________________

 

Date __ CET __ cum ____ MAX ________ MIN ______________ Running CET extremes

01 ___ 12.9 ___ 12.9 ___ 20.2 (1985) ___ 6.1 (1808&1888) __ 20.2 (1985) ___ 6.1 (1808,88)
02 ___ 12.3 ___ 12.6 ___ 17.9 (2011) ___ 3.6 (1817) ________19.0 (2011) ___ 5.1 (1888)
03 ___ 12.1 ___ 12.4 ___ 19.8 (2011) ___ 4.7 (1817) ________19.3 (2011) ___ 5.2 (1888)
04 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.3 ___ 17.7 (1959) ___ 5.1 (1912) ________18.2 (2011) ___ 5.3 (1888)
05 ___ 11.6 ___ 12.2 ___ 17.9 (1886) ___ 4.6 (1888) ________17.7 (2011) ___ 5.2 (1888)

06 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.1 ___19.0 (1921) ___ 4.1 (1888) ________16.9 (1959) ___ 5.0 (1888)
07 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.1 ___16.9 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1829) ________16.6 (1959) ___ 5.0 (1888)
08 ___ 11.8 ___ 12.0 ___17.7 (1995) ___ 4.1 (1829) ________16.3 (1959) ___ 5.2 (1888)
09 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.0 ___17.5 (1995) ___ 3.3 (1852) ________16.3 (1921) ___ 5.5 (1888)
10 ___ 12.5 ___ 12.0 ___17.8 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1814) ________16.5 (1921) ___ 5.7 (1888)

11 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.0 ___ 17.6 (1978) ___ 3.9 (1860) ________16.5 (1921) ___ 6.0 (1888)
12 ___ 11.6 ___ 12.0 ___ 16.5 (1978) ___ 3.2 (1887) ________16.3 (1921) ___ 6.3 (1888)
13 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.9 ___ 18.5 (2018) ___ 2.2 (1838) ________16.0 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1888)
14 ___ 10.9 ___ 11.8 ___ 17.2 (2017) ___ 3.1 (1838) ________15.8 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1888)
15 ___ 10.8 ___ 11.8 ___ 15.7 (1930) ___ 2.5 (1843) ________15.4 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1888)

16 ___ 10.3 ___ 11.7 ___ 16.4 (2017) ___ 1.8 (1843) ________15.1 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1888)
17 ___ 10.0 ___ 11.6 ___ 15.6 (1897) ___ 2.5 (1824) ________14.9 (1921) ___ 6.5 (1888)
18 ___ 10.1 ___ 11.5 ___ 16.7 (2014) ___ 2.4 (1843) ________14.9 (1921) ___ 6.5 (1817)
19 ___ 10.0 ___ 11.4 ___ 16.3 (1921) ___ 1.5 (1813) ________15.0 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)

20 ____ 9.8 ___ 11.3 ___ 14.9 (1795) ___ 2.1 (1842) ________14.7 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)

21 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.3 ___ 15.2 (1998) ___ 1.2 (1842) ________14.5 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)
22 ____ 9.9 ___ 11.2 ___ 16.2 (1906) ___ 2.5 (1931) ________14.3 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)
23 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.4 (1998) ___ 0.9 (1859) ________14.0 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)
24 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.3 (2009) ___ 0.6 (1859) _______ 13.8 (1995) ___ 6.4 (1817)
25 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.0 __ 14.0 (1978, 2013) _ 2.0 (1784) ____13.7 (1995,2001) __ 6.4 (1817)
 

26 ____ 9.6 ___ 10.9 ___ 14.7 (1927) ___ 1.5 (1785) ________13.6 (1995,2001) __ 6.4 (1817)
27 ____ 9.8 ___ 10.9 ___ 16.7 (1888) ___ 1.4 (1869) ________13.6 (1995,2001) __ 6.4 (1817)
28 ____ 9.8 ___ 10.9 ___ 15.6 (1888) ___ 0.9 (1895) ________13.5 (2001) ___ 6.3 (1817)
29 ____ 8.9 ___ 10.8 __ 14.0 (1772,1984) _ 0.3 (1895) _____ 13.4 (2001) ___ 6.2 (1817)
30 ____ 9.2 ___ 10.7 ___ 15.5 (2005) ___ 0.7 (1836) ________13.4 (2001) ___ 6.3 (1817)
 
31 ____ 9.3 ___ 10.7 ___ 16.9 (2014) ___ 0.7 (1836) ________13.3 (2001) ___ 6.4 (1817)*

===================================================================

*1740 ended with 5.3 and probably had colder running CET values at any point than these values.

===================================================================

1991 - 2020 daily and cumulative C.E.T. values

01 _____ 13.1 _ 13.1 ________ 11 ____ 12.2 _ 12.1 ________ 21 ____ 10.0 _ 11.4 

02 _____ 12.3 _ 12.7 ________ 12 ____ 11.8 _ 12.1 ________ 22 ____ 10.2 _ 11.3

03 _____ 12.3 _ 12.6 ________ 13 ____ 11.4 _ 12.0 ________ 23 ____ 10.4 _ 11.3

04 _____ 11.9 _ 12.4 ________ 14 ____ 11.0 _ 12.0 ________ 24 ____ 10.4 _ 11.3

05 _____ 11.8 _ 12.3 ________ 15 ____ 10.9 _ 11.9 ________ 25 _____ 9.9 _ 11.2

06 _____ 11.6 _ 12.2 ________ 16 ____ 10.9 _ 11.8 ________ 26 _____ 9.9 _ 11.2

07 _____ 11.6 _ 12.1 ________ 17 ____ 10.4 _ 11.7 ________ 27 _____ 9.8 _ 11.1

08 _____ 12.1 _ 12.1 ________ 18 ____ 10.1 _ 11.6 ________ 28 _____ 9.8 _ 11.1

09 _____ 11.9 _ 12.1 ________ 19 ____ 10.0 _ 11.6 ________ 29 _____ 9.3 _ 11.0

10 _____ 12.3 _ 12.1 ________ 20 _____ 9.8 _ 11.5 ________ 30 ______ 9.5 _ 11.0

_________________________________________________________ 31 _____ 9.8 _ 10.9

============================================================

Note: the 29th is the coldest day of the month in both 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 and also

for the all-time record lows (0.3 in 1895) and completes the set with the lowest running CET

value of the daily data period (1817 = 6.2, ended 6.4)

. 

[Daniel*]

Oh dear I’ve forgotten 9.8 and 70mm thanks 

[Summer Sun]

13.3c to the 1st

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 13.3c on the 1st

[damianslaw]

No chance of driest October on record after today's widespread rainfall!

[Summer Sun]

11.9c to the 2nd

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.9c on the 2nd

[JeffC]

Thought I'd entered, but can't see it! 11.2 C and 80 mm please unless I'm too late

[Roger J Smith]

3 hours ago, JeffC said:

Thought I'd entered, but can't see it! 11.2 C and 80 mm please unless I'm too late

You made it before the absolute deadline, entered into the table now. I've had the odd post fail to appear, I think sometimes we have one ready to post, go to another open tab and forget to click on submit, or maybe it times out and fails to load. 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP off to a fast start with 20 mm by 2nd, probably now closer to 25 mm and looking to add 30-35 mm on average next two or three days (up to 60 mm possibly by 6th or 7th) ... after that, however, high pressure builds in and it's mainly dry for about a week to ten days.

That 60 mm total would probably get some further action eventually though. 

CET looks like it will get rather mild by mid-month, pattern beyond that could go in any direction though. 

[Scorcher]

On 03/10/2021 at 11:22, Summer Sun said:

11.9c to the 2nd

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.9c on the 2nd

Surprised it's not lower than this, it's certainly one of the coldest feeling starts to October I can remember. The cloud cover has meant no cold nights really, but by day it has felt very cold. Saturday was a truly horrible day here- mostly cold, wet and windy. It almost feels like we've skipped autumn here and gone straight from summer into winter.

Glad to see something more seasonal (it's still only the first week of October) by Wednesday.

[Summer Sun]

11.6c to the 3rd

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average
0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[damianslaw]

A chilly start to October then, thanks mainly to supressed maxima, however, expect a fair rise from Wednesday onwards both due to very mild maxima and minima.. signs we may see more nearer average or a bit below minima we move further into the middle of the month - but much will depend on how much cloud cover becomes trapped within the anticyclonic ridge. Would be good to have a frosty foggy high, but the ridge is building in very mild uppers, and I think it may take some time before we see a clearer airstream.. but give it time..

[JeffC]

20 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

You made it before the absolute deadline, entered into the table now. I've had the odd post fail to appear, I think sometimes we have one ready to post, go to another open tab and forget to click on submit, or maybe it times out and fails to load. 

Aye, was very odd, but been very distracted of late, but was sure I'd posted. Not to worry, I managed to get in, thanks!!